Member Info for Nostra

You aren't taxing your AI. I just had mine go through every report it could find (not just ECR stuff either other miners historic geology etc etc) to assess all the projects and map me a 3 case scenario from worst to best for production and resulting share price (remembering the caveat AI can make mistakes too 😂):

ECR Probability‑Weighted Valuation

ECR has 3.54 billion shares in issue.

Real share price today: 0.19p.

Real market cap: ~£7.2m.

I modelled realistic production from Raglan, Maddens, Blue Mountain and Salt Bush (no hype, no AIM fantasy). Using today’s gold price (£3,180/oz), here’s the probability‑weighted valuation.

🎯 Realistic Production Scenarios

Worst Case: 4,100 oz/year → 2.0p/share

Base Case: 7,700 oz/year → 5.4p/share

Best Case: 13,500 oz/year → 12.7p/share

📊 Probability Weighting (realistic)

Worst Case: 40%

Base Case: 45%

Best Case: 15%

📈 Probability‑Weighted Fair Value

5.1p per share

📉 Today’s Price

0.19p

📌 What it means

Market is pricing ECR as if it will fail.

Even the worst realistic case is 2p (10× higher).

The weighted fair value is 5.1p (26× higher).

The best case is 12.7p (67× higher).

Gold at £3,180/oz massively boosts margins.

Execution (not geology) is the swing factor.

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I have to be a bit careful on these boards and don't post often. But I like these, as I have said for a PAF style ride which I very much enjoyed. Got a few in my pension and a few trading on my own book. GLA

Thanks all, a couple I know, others not so well so Im mining through the data as we speak.

Thanks sniper took a quick look I do see the PAF similarities but further along than ECR with market cap only 10m THX 1/2 £Bil & mighty PAF now 2 1/2 £Bil. Also I like ECRs starting out in Oz so none of the political/etc risks of Africa (unless Trumps so annoyed he didnt get Greenland he doubles down and goes for Oz ;-)

Had these in my SIPP for about 5 years from 11-12p I think, including dividends my best individual share, in fact had to balance a few off as the % of my portfolio PAF took up has increased as the share price outperformed other stuff in there. It has by far been the most interesting journey as an investor, but like a drug I want that first hit feeling again so Im thinking ECR could take me on that ride again??? Thoughts from other long term PAFers appreciated (it was you lot who persuaded me to seriously load these in my SIPP years ago after all!)

It’s a long way to go but this could become another PAF which I’ve done VERY well from after investing very early (but not as early as I am here at ECR!). GLA

They now have a fair chunk. 13.396% up from 12 odd. Shows confidence and one cant help but think the Gov of SA wouldnt mind buying a chunk to push the price up and annoy the evil Corporate shorters 😂

You’re welcome. Short maybe will close soon that’s another thing to look forward too.

This spat trumps had with BRICS is the ball park of what I said Arrow Street might be hoping for but I cant believe they could predict something as random as that. Mind you they did top up the short on the 3rd July but in my bit on 3rd june I think it was i thought it might be more internal SA shenanigans than external. I dont think this is what they were hoping for.

* subject correction for those Bot scrapers after my Tanqueray inspired typo :-)

Check out below Elephant in the room. My favourite pet theory for the last couple of years since an article I’ve looked for ever since disappeared about Chinas new super gold vault with a couple of weak sources (workers on the vault I vaguely remember but not 100% I didn’t dream this article 😂) but regardless one of my main drivers for PAF POG at a discount to share price if/when chinas true holdings (plenty of theories they understate take your pick) ever come to light POG not unrealistic $5k (especially if trumps still in with his ‘gold envy ‘ paltry 8k tonnes 😂).

TABLE – Central bank gold holdings – IMF data

30 Jun 2025 19:54

June 30 (Reuters) – The following is a table of central bank gold holdings as of June 30, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF):

All figures are in tonnes.

March 2025 April 2025 May 2025

Argentina 61.59 61.59 61.59

Australia 74.03 74.03 76.83

France 2437.01 2437.01 2437.01

Germany 3351.48 3351.17 3350.23

Hungary 110.11 110.11 110.11

India 879.63 879.63 – Italy 2451.94 2451.94 2451.94

Japan 846.03 846.03 846.03

Kazakhstan 290.51 291.45 298.91

Netherlands 612.44 612.44 612.44

Poland 496.73 509.18 515.40

Russia – – – Switzerland 1040.12 1040.12 – Ukraine 27.37 27.37 27.37

United Kingdom 310.42 310.42 310.42

United States 8133.75 – – Uzbekistan – – –

(Bengaluru Commodities Desk)

In this brave new world gold will probably do what it’s become fond of doing for us PAFers, drop until 4.30 pm then trump will do something bonkers over the weekend with Gold gently rising from 4.31pm (possibly spiking on said bonkers event) opening in Singapore late Sunday well up. By time Monday London open comes it could be a completely different price. Anyway that’s my ‘Trump trade’ and every time gold has dropped 1% and PAF has dropped 5% I’ve bought and that’s no different today.

I think the PAF short would likely more speculative to do with SA politics/regulation as in 'regulatory changes' than a bet against Gold or the poor performance of the company. Significantly less likely but the 'reward' in terms of the drop in share price would also be significantly more. Their down side (share goes up) is limited given most fair value CURRENT estimates have it at 47-50p and its close to recent highs. In other words its a long shot in their short portfolio with a possible big pay day and limited downside (as they would see it).

Here's what else they're short or have been:

Adriatic Metals PLC

CERES POWER HOLDINGS PLC

CVS Group Plc

DIVERSIFIED ENERGY COMPANY PLC

ESSENTRA PLC

FERREXPO PLC

HAMMERSON PLC

MONDI PLC

OCADO GROUP PLC

OXF BIOMEDICA PLC

Oxford Nanopore Technologies PLC

Pan African Resources

PENNON GROUP PLC

SYNTHOMER PLC

THG PLC

Warpaint London plc

YELLOW CAKE PLC

Looking at them in sector:

- Mining & Commodities: Adriatic Metals, Ferrexpo, Pan African Resources, and Yellow Cake focus on metals and minerals.

- Energy & Sustainability: Ceres Power Holdings and Diversified Energy Company are involved in energy solutions.

- Retail & Consumer Goods: Ocado Group (online grocery), Warpaint London (cosmetics), and THG (e-commerce).

- Biotech & Healthcare: Oxford Nanopore Technologies and OXF Biomedica work in medical and biotech innovation.

- Industrial & Manufacturing: Essentra, Mondi, and Synthomer deal with packaging, chemicals, and materials.

- Real Estate & Infrastructure: Hammerson (property investment) and Pennon Group (utilities).

I reckon they might be shorting companies in volatile sectors—perhaps those sensitive to economic downturns or regulatory changes which in this crazy 'new world environment' we find ourselves in might not be a bad bet 😂

Mike Not sure how this will print from my terminal but below consensus Opinion 8 Analyst (Covering PAF) Last updated 24/4/25:

Forecasts $ millions unless stated

Year 2025

Turnover 542

EBITDA 253.6

EBIT 225.4

Pre-tax profit 206.4

Post-tax profit 160.5

EPS (¢) 7.86

Dividend (p) 1.18

Capex 155

Free cash flow -10.56

Net borrowing 116.9

Year 2026

Turnover 800.3

EBITDA 442

EBIT 393.2

Pre-tax profit 340

Post-tax profit 290

EPS (¢) 13.7

Dividend (p) 2.95

Capex 66.7

Free cash flow 279.3

Net borrowing -179.08

Year 2027

Turnover 841.8

EBITDA 416.2

EBIT 365.2

Pre-tax profit 361.9

Post-tax profit 265.3

EPS (¢) 13.7

Dividend (p) 3.27

Capex 40

Free cash flow 306.1

Net borrowing -411.12

This out today which illustrates what I was saying about a days shift in Gold prices. The most recent quarterly for the world’s biggest Gold miner. No reason PAF shouldn’t follow suit” UPDATE 1 – Newmont beats first – quarter profit estimates on rally in gold prices

23 Apr 2025 21:10

(Adds background and details in paragraph 2 and 3)

April 23 (Reuters) – Newmont beat Wall Street estimates for first-quarter profit on Wednesday, as the world's biggest gold miner benefited from a rally in bullion prices.

The average price of gold has been rising over the past few quarters and hit record highs in the January to March period, as concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's fresh tariff plans ignited fears of a global trade war, driving a rush towards the safe-haven allure of the precious metal.

Newmont's quarterly average realized price for gold was at $2,944 per ounce, compared with $2,090 per ounce a year ago.”

Agreed. Share is trading like gold but where as a gold position lives or dies on the current price of Gold that day that second PAFs results are the average price of Gold achieved through out the trading period (6 months 12 Months etc). So if trump says one thing one day price is low or high for a day that could kill off pure play gold trades (especially with margin etc) but its one days Gold prices achieved out of 365 for PAF. So Ive scooped up a few today.

IG called them investors I was quoting verbatim from their news feed (I think it was Reuters). I agreed with you Kenji and called them traders (although for full disclosure you could call me a trader ;) but with PAF I’m an investor had them in my pension for years hence my HOLD rather than a strong buy strong sell more tradier recommendation).

Cheers

Its dead easy. Everything gets liquidated at times like this as high volumes (of every asset class traded) use Margin so when the margin calls come in as their other stuff tanks traders have to liquidate even stuff they dont want to. See below from my IG feed on the Gold drop:

Investors are selling off some of their gold holdings to cover losses in other asset classes, prompted by margin calls, analysts said."We still see scope for further upside risks, given the current risk-off environment... we expect prices to hit further record highs in the second quarter," said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper.

The bank's Q2 gold price forecast is at $3,300/oz.