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Sage advice from an anonymous blogger! Must sell in the morning. Appreciate the advice

There is a post by an analyst on LinkedIn saying the production forecast is too conservative to which Neal Reynolds likes the post. Deduce from that what you will.

ATB Northern

Ard,

I agree they are taking an incremental approach to forecasting. Once a process is fully running and understand monthly production then add it into the forward view. Until something is fully up and running then keep the forecast very conservative.

It would be interesting to see the internal forecast however! I would be hopeful for 10k Copper and 1.7m Chrome based on projects in progress and prior production achievements.

ATB Northern

Interview cleared a few things up for me:

Copper forecast will be upgraded as Roan, M and G mature and circa $3.5k per ton margin.

IRH likely to accelerate off the back of the production experience at Roan.

Chrome at healthy margins as Seis mentioned.

Structured finance preferred funding - equity as a last resort

Looking for some excellent growth from this point forward but I am sure there will be some bumps in the road!

ATB Northern

Nelson, I am convinced they are sandbagging. I guess this is maybe taking advice from some on this board who prefer to under promise and over deliver. They did this with Chrome for the year end forecast.

If you look at the chrome production for 4Q and extrapolate for a full year then this equates to roughly the 25FY forecast. So no contribution from Thutse 2 - I would think not?

PGM's - they will be stockpiling PGM material from processing the additonal chrome and am sure if the price rises then they will increase output and maybe even use the third party processing (price permitting).

Copper looks like they are being ultra cautious until they have more production data which given the history I can understand.

Interesting to hear Leon as he will be doing the interview rounds off the back of this.

ATB Northern

Seis, I think they have learned with guidance and I would expect this to creep up each quarter. Generally as expected but outwardly disappointing forecasts for 2025 FY but I believe a bit of sandbagging going on.

ATB Northern

Seis, the other consideration on Cobalt is the source of the material and ethical mining traceability. The issues with DRC product are well publicised and not particularly appealing to many organisations.

Agreed Frog - those shares can also be re-purchased by the company with the cash which is and in the near term future will be generated from the investment in the asset base.

I would prefer a commitment from the company to purchase an equivalent amount of shares on the market for any mine owners who "want JLP shares as compensation". Should dampen concerns from some about the amount of shares in issue.

ATB Northern

thanks for responding edzi. not sure i follow though - let me explain...

“firstly, at xmas when they raised money leon specifically stated in an interview that some of the money was needed to book forward time so the units can be built, fact. seeing as we have heard noting and they don't know what and when they are going to build for the irh deal, ask yourself if you believe that statement seeing that on the rns before xmas it was mentioned about mulifuria, paying for some small copper deal and money to finish sable, and then working capital.”

the actual rns issued formally by the company is as follows:

- pay the initial payment of us$1.75 million, due under the agreement for the acquisition of the copper waste rock dump announced on 12 december 2023 detailed above and progress resource and process design (a total of c.us$4.5m).

- expand the sulphide recovery circuits at the company's sable refinery to accommodate increased sulphide concentrate production from newly acquired projects (c.us$5.7m).

- progress the project development phase of the mufulira **** project, with early-stage bulk trial and processing (c.us$2.5m).

- for general working capital purposes

the resource definition for ob1 is in progress as leon has stated and we should hear very shortly on progress (within a couple of weeks as per leons interviews). the sulphide expansion at sable is in progress as has been stated by the company. mufulira project hasn’t been mentioned a great deal but there has been nothing to suggest the work is not ongoing in the background.

my personal conclusion is that they have been spending the cash on the areas stated. i agree there hasn't been a detailed update on ob1 and mufulira but there are no facts in the public domain to suggest otherwise which is why i don't believe the board have lied. others may draw different conclusions but please do not represent them as facts - as they are clearly not. to be very clear i don't have any issues with opinions at all.

Gray,

I am expecting some news on IRH very shortly as Leon specifically mentioned this in a couple of his Roast interviews. He also mentioned the project was "well advanced" but will leave that to everyones imagination until there is an official update!

ATB Northern

Edzi, you do ask questions of people which I don’t mind at all - some people have different approaches.

You also mention facts. I did ask you about facts when you effectively said the cash raise in December was not spent on the stated projects. Some may say you said the board had lied - unless you have any facts which prove otherwise?

Looking forward to your response,

ATB Northern

Good news indeed and hopefully puts to bed some of the narrative which has been suggested about the modules potentially not working.

Looking forward to the Operational update, OB1 news and some firmer numbers on forecast production profile and copper split.

Taken much longer than anticipated but the platform has been put down for copper growth like we have seen in the Chrome side of the business!

ATB Northern

Edzi, steady on. If you think the board have outright lied about the fund raise then I would suggest reporting this to the relevant authorities. As a minimum I would register this with Waltie. If you have firm evidence to back up your assertions then as a shareholder I for one would like to hear them.

We will hear about OB1 progress in the next two weeks (Leon’s words) and he has stated the upgrade at Sable

Is in progress. The remainder of the stated cash was for Mufulira research.

As I say if you have any facts you can point me to I would be grateful if you can share them as any facts help me make investment decisions.

Thanks in advance Northern

Not long Prof! Not long

Mike, I agree. Would be good to have the cash flow forecast but hopefully in a good position now with capex mostly done and revenues rising sharply with Thutse 2, Monkoyo, Roan and soon G. We may even find out the tolling margins have risen after the extensions.

I also agree we have time before additional refining capacity is needed but sometimes you get unexpected timing on deals which force a quicker decision.

If you look at the operations the company have they are seriously impressive. Not worried by a muted reaction about Roan as volumes low due to holidays and worries about the US economy. There will be a time when people cotton on to the value being created here and the muted price at the moment allows me to buy a few more.

ATB Northern

Happy Roan is functioning and close to another module at Thutse. Should be ample cash flow to bolt on some of the small mines so less worried about dilution. Can also do some buybacks when operations more mature but need to grab as much of the pie as we can now before others come sniffing! If the small miners want shares then issue the shares but have an equivalent purchase by the company so the total number doesn’t increase?

Real unknown would be the refining capacity as this will be capex intensive but pay off royally in medium term as more value from copper output.

HD, 12k cathode and 4k sulphide conc from Sable rather than 16k cathode

Afternoon Edzi,

Roan has two processing areas - the existing one produces Sulphide conc at circa 25% which gets sold. The oxide whilst there is still capacity will go to Sable for refining to cathode.

Sable produces oxide conc which is further refined into Cathode. It also has a 2k sulphide conc capacity which is being extended to 4K - this will be sold into the market.

Decision is to add a refinery to Roan but can’t see this happening as we have previously been told there are existing facilities which could be used rather than a build from new.

The output will vary on feedstock but am sure we will get a clearer picture as we move forward and all facilities are in full swing.

That’s my understanding but happy to be corrected,

ATB Northern

I agree - they will need to know what other mines they are working with before optimising the location.

Long awaited but great news today - well done to Leon and the team!

News due very shortly on the IRH OB1 project, 2H production and Thutse 2.

Hopefully we will build some upward momentum in the SP alongside the cash flows!

ATB Northern

Edzi, quite happy to hear your opinions but no need to be condescending towards a fellow poster.