The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Thanks for the links posted re: the Podcast on AM O Sullivan -- their approach is indeed interesting..... particularly the stance 'most of what we do as a PR company is actually about keeping company's out of the press and managing their communications' - and also interesting to learn about their work behind the scenes on stakeholder engagement ... I speculate that Alans approach with the Department didn't work.... I hope that AM O Sullivan is rebuilding relations there.... . Finally, the PVR practice of leaking news to SBP and others, has most likely been tightened up.... I would expect to hear actual news from PVR first for a change, and wouldn't wait on a short term bounce for direction.... No doubt AM OSuillivan were the author of the last RNS, which, while long winded, was clear, with less hype....
The next steps are as follows (including recruit CEO).
(1) Secure the Lease Undertaking.
(2) Complete the current Barryroe technical and commercial evaluations.
(3) Finalise the Board's review process, currently anticipated to confirm a
recommendation to drill an appraisal well to substantially reduce subsurface
uncertainties.
(4) Secure funding for the appraisal programme.
(5) Plan the appraisal well in detail, contract a suitable rig and execute the drilling
and appraisal data acquisition programme.
(6) Progress work on the conceptual designs for development wells and facilities.
(7) Analyse the appraisal data and progress the selection amongst post-appraisal
development options to an appropriate conclusion.
You'd need pockets as deep as Larry Junior ( 40mil+ shares I think ) to off-set the risk on this wee beauty ... Here's hoping he's still a net buyer..
A few huge trades here over the course of the last week... Looks like a large order being filled in Dublin, shares traded in LSE to fill a Dublin order register as sells on LSE... HNY and good luck in 2022
Lazy Journalism from the Times; the last SBP article was on point.
The RNS this morning is a step change in approach for PVR,... it's transparent, structured, and sets the tone for what's to come... confidence building... Returning confidence to the investment case..... It's actually about developing the asset... Which requires a long term focus..... It spells things out in sequential steps.. it doesn't presume an investment case, but rather its focus is about how PVR can build this... Its appraisal focus de-risks the permitting process .... A positive step change for investors..
There was a 40m trade 18th Oct the day before Alan jumped ship, that remains undisclosed.. however haven't heard anything about Larry Goodman offloading .. the press content since that suggested the opposite .. hope Larry Jnr is still on board
I think Goldman are gone reading from the 3%+ disclosure on the website (I wish they weren't - I followed them into the trade initially, but think they got out between the 12-18p trade price on initial APEC deal and Gov sign-off circa Sept-19.. I don't mind waiting on news if it holds weight. I'd take a buyout at 10p any day now ??.
I'm open minded on Larry Goodman's interest in PVR: he has an appetite for investment pre-takeover / M&A activity; he has interests in private healthcare through BlackRock and PVRs chair has competing interests, perhaps they have previous; at a time when the Green Party are pressuring the Irish Beef Industry, the Goodman empire, the timing of an investment in O&G can't be coincidental. One thing for sure, it's the most interesting thing at play in PVR this year.
The Government has approved that:
• the development of new conventional generation (including gas-fired and
gasoil/distillate-fired generation) is a national priority and should be permitted and
supported in order to ensure security of electricity supply and support the growth of
renewable electricity generation;
• it is appropriate that existing conventional electricity generation capacity, including
existing coal, heavy fuel oil and biomass fired generation, should be retained until the
new conventional electricity generation capacity is developed in order to ensure
security of electricity supply;
Some of the prophetic commentary on this feed is hilarious... Considering the share price... Your not exactly an oracle of price direction to state the price.... the direction from here is -2.65p or + ?... It is that simple... Don't overcook your analysis
I read about that little porpoise in the EIA reports; it was one of the few things that made me smile since investing in PVR. That and our AnTaisce friend that disrupted the 2019 AGM as a shareholder.
However, nothing fundamentally has changed since 2011/2012 at Barryroe in asset terms.
In corporate terms TOR (the tan one) lacked any credibility in the Dublin markets; he had to head to China to try and finance a deal which we were lead to believe was held up in interbank processing (money laundering procedure). The provenance of that deal lacked credibility, but the SP still reached 18p on spec that a deal was possible. Before falling off a clif edge with the weekly 'no money' RNS.
When Alan joined, the SP soon hit an all time low of 1.5p. last year in March-April. Speculation of a deal pushed the price back to 9p; before falling off a clif edge on the basis of no finance.
So given that the credibility lost is the key issue preventing access to finance, (factoring in the delays of departmental process) it seems a logical approach, to reset the clock, go back to fundamentals, and bring on Board the credible expertise within the Dublin market itself, to do the heavy lifting on a way forward. I don't mind how long the Review takes provided that the outcome is credible.
On the cash call/dilution; I've factored that in as one option. However I ran the numbers on a fundraise involving our largest shareholders. I don't think it will be the preferred way forward, not a complete self-finance of the development.
One thing that we do have clarity on; the downside risk is 3p /4c. What's the risk on the upside?
A pragmatic approach would see Government policy ring-fence the tax-take from Barryroe (after our recoup of course) towards energy transition plans; based on the estimates it would provide a feasible and accelerated pathway towards what at the moment is neither realistic nor achievable. Everyone wants to save the planet, no-one wants to pay. The Barryroe Gas field is a solution, not a problem. I'm happy that Minister Ryan is at the wheel, or as our February 9th RNS states 'The Government has consented to the Barryroe Site Survey'. I'm in no doubt the consenting is contingent on a comprehensive plan, but our Minister last week also indirectly confirmed that he cant block this on the basis of the redemption costs. And as to the Alliance to end O&G, it's gives great comfort to know that Norway is involved in (controlling) that alliance. The only piece of this jigsaw puzzle that's left of course is the finance. Hundreds of deals equivalent to the relative cost of the Early Development Scheme take place in a 4sq km block of Dublin City Centre every week and month. The brightest Corporate Finance brains in the world pass you by every day when you walk down the street and people are oblivious to the deals they are working on. I've no doubt that our Corporate Finance connections will come through, the consultancy costs will be money well spent, and Dublin is a very small place to do business. Alan wasn't connected enough to get a deal done financially or politically. Chairing the IOOA was a terrible move. Alan isn't gone because the fundamentals of the asset have changed. Alan's gone as he presented a credibility barrier to the licensing, consenting and the finance. Leaving to 'pursue other business interests' is the same as getting pushed. He was Pat's pick, not Jimmy's. This stock will head North again. Long term holders should hang tight. The right people are now in charge, the Corporate Finance guys, and as I say, Dublin is a very small circle. When the tide turns here it will be quick and sharp.
If the Strategic Review takes 6 months then so be it. Ideally the Board will leverage the support of the their professional network in undertaking the review - irrespective of the cost. The Irish Corporate Finance and Investment Market is a very very small interconnected collection of people, which includes some of the smartest brains on the planet. The PVR turnaround situation is a small to medium size project. That 40m trade this month?.
EUR 0.04 average - the 550K trade only got filled on the 4th day of trying.
I finally got my order filled on Friday - 550K through Euronext Dublin on Friday morning - currently holding 2.5 million.
For anyone here to discuss the trade - I picked up 1 Mil PVR this week - Dublin Market.
Celtic Voyager left Cararoe this evening - en route for Cork - to undertake the survey work - its just off the cliffs of Moher in County Clare.