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Assuming conservatively that Panthera's claim in the Statement of Claim filed by May 16 will amount to GBP 891 million, then based on the experience with GreenX, the capitalization should be around GBP 36.5 million. The company is currently valued at around GBP 17 million, so there is potential for the share price to double in a fairly short term. Of course, no one can guarantee that the GRX story will repeat itself here 1:1, but that is precisely what speculation is. It is also worth remembering that the professionals from VSA Capital in their latest analysis of the company valued the share at GBX 40 at this stage, which only proves that my estimates are really conservative.

At this point, it should also be realized that for many players, the stakes are not a potential "miserable" +100% in 3 months. Many speculators may see here an opportunity to grab a "free lottery ticket", which may give even higher rates of return in the longer term without taking any risk at all. After all, it is enough to buy shares now and then sell half when their valuation doubles, taking out the capital and leaving yourself a "free" second half of shares, which will lie quietly for the next few years - many see the matter this way, it is completely natural and obvious. That is why these may be interesting 3 months on the chart, on which a visible upward trend has already formed.

Those taking 7p today may therefore pose a risk that they will want to grab such a lottery ticket around 14p. Remember, however, that they still did not buy as much as they wanted. If the money that was left on the table goes into the market, then it will translate into an increase in share prices, and consequently their average will increase. If we reach, for example, 13p, then a dilemma will arise: sell for those 14p, or double and sell half of the shares for 20p, leaving the rest. And with such upward averaging, we can go really high. But we'll see how it goes - for now, the chart does not show anyone panicking in any particular way (apart from the opening).

PS: The pool still lying on the table could grow if investors Emmerson and Zenith Energy exit their investments at least for a moment with a profit, because Panthera could seem like another great opportunity to them

On June 9, 2021, Prairie Mining announced that it had filed its Statement of Claim in its arbitration against Poland, in which it claimed 806 million GBP for blocking two mining projects (later the claim was reduced to GBP 737 million in response to the defendant's position, which can be considered good image practice). After this announcement, the Company's share price was approximately 14.57 GBX (i.e. PLN 0.87), which with approximately 228 million shares in circulation translated into a market capitalization of ~33 million GBP (i.e. ~200 million PLN). This corresponded to approximately 4-5% of the claim amount.

The current market valuation of Panthera Resources at around £8.50 is around £17m – after the new shares are put into circulation it will be around £20m. Without knowing the claim amount it is difficult to say whether it is adequate or still undervalued, and if so, by how much. Especially since the expectations of the investors I have spoken to are varied, some even having their heads in the clouds in my opinion. We can dream of the 10bn USD claim that Energy Transition Minerals has filed against Greenland, but then we will only be disappointed. A few years in this arbitration business have taught me to approach the matter conservatively.

I suggest looking at the amounts of funding that GreenX and Panthera received from LCM and using that as a basis to estimate the difference between their claims. Panthera received slightly more, USD 13.6 million compared to USD 12.3 million that GreenX had in its dispute. If we scale the claim amount proportionally based on these amounts, then we should expect Panthera to have GBP 891 million. However, remember that such funding most likely does not grow linearly - if the funder gives more money, they risk more, and they are only willing to take greater risks if the reward is likely to be greater.

Thanks to Panthera's acquisition of these funds, the Company's future is secured in the medium term, perhaps even until the arbitration is resolved (which the Company probably won't be able to declare directly, because you never know). This means that if someone wants to buy these shares, they will have to do it on the market - poor chances for some "star from the sky" at a promotional price, since the company is not cornered. This alone should have a positive impact on Panthera's share valuations. But that's not all. Listening to today's VSA Capital Morning Miner 250225 podcast, my attention was drawn to the host's statement that the interest was so great that the broker had to limit the pool of its clients to only 35% of what they intended to buy. This means that more or less at the current level, around 7p, we have on the table even 3x as much capital as the Company acquired through this issue. If they failed to buy at 7p in the issue, and still have at least twice as much cash, why shouldn't 8p, 9p or even 10p be an attractive offer for them? After all, even if they were to buy the second tranche at 13p, their average would only be 10p. That's still 4x VSA Capital's target.

And it is the revelation of this hidden demand for these shares that is the news of the day that should wipe the tears of those disappointed with the issue and dilution.

By May 16 at the latest, so in the next 3 months, Panthera will file its Statement of Claim, which will disclose the amount of the claim in its arbitration against the Indian government. Of course, it may happen earlier, which is why the last days or even weeks before that date may be interesting in terms of the behavior of the Company's share price. At the moment, we know where we are on the chart, but can we somehow predict where we will be, or where we should be in those three months after May 16? You never know, but we can see how things turned out in the case of GreenX a few years ago.

Translation of Marcin's Post

#PantheraResources $PAT announced that it had raised £2.77 million by issuing almost 40 million new shares at 7p each, after which a total of around 240 million shares of the Company will be in circulation. This is quite a significant dilution, which for obvious reasons may not be appreciated by current shareholders, especially small shareholders. However, let us remember that the financing of USD 13.6 million obtained from LCM can only be used for purposes related to the arbitration proceedings, while every company has certain fixed costs such as salaries, administration, etc. Sooner or later, the Company would have to raise new capital through an issue. Some will probably say that this could have been done later, e.g. after the Statement of Claim was filed, or even after the hearings - then the price would certainly have been higher, and therefore the number of shares necessary to issue to raise the same amount would have been smaller, and thus the dilution would have been smaller. It is impossible to deny the logic of this reasoning. However, let us try to look at the matter from a different perspective.

My previous several years of experience with GreenX as a company that went through the entire process that was only started by Panthera show that investors were most afraid of two things: losing arbitration and issuing shares. Or more precisely: not the issue itself, because they were never that dilutive, but the unpredictability of this issue. Yes, we could predict when the funds in the company's account would run out, but we were not sure whether the company would decide to carry it out earlier on the occasion of a positive event that had an impact on the price, such as a hearing. The specter of the issue hung over us like an executioner's axe. In my opinion, this was a factor that inhibited the growth of share prices to a certain extent, because it cooled the demand for shares. Because if we expect an issue, why should we buy shares today at a certain market price, when maybe in a month or two the company will carry out an additional issue - even if we will not be able to participate in it, the market will react negatively and we will be able to buy cheaper.

Translation of Dagens Börs Expert Analysis

Analysis

The technical analysis should work better than usual on Zenith, as this is basically a value bet/value trade.

There is/should not be any new information, and the conditions are relatively clear and given.

The CEO and Board of Directors have increased their holdings by several million SEK.

CEO Andrea Cattaneo currently owns 49,504,584 shares at a current value of approximately NOK 50.7 million.

Zenith has won dispute number 1, and dispute number 2 will have a huge impact on the share price as this “second” dispute determines whether it will be;

Alternative A: Zenith wins dispute 2. Zenith has won 2 disputes out of 2 possible (2-0). Dispute number 3 remains. The probability of winning in dispute number 3, the big dispute, increases.

Option B: Zenith loses match 2. Zenith then has 1 win and 1 loss (1-1). The uncertainty ahead of the final third match increases significantly.

Our assessment is that the probability of winning dispute number 2 must be a bit over 50%, since dispute 1 was won. The question is of course exactly how high.

IMPORTANT! Final hearings in dispute number 2, taking place this week

Dispute number two is in full swing and final hearings in the ICC-2 arbitration are scheduled to take place during the week beginning February 24, 2025 (this current week). ***Judgment/outcome expected in September 2025.

"The final hearings of the ICC-2 Arbitration are scheduled to take place during the week beginning February 24, 2025"

Source: MFN News

The main scenario is that Zenith rises through the SEK 2.00 level in the long term, to seek entry into the target range of SEK 3.00-5.00 as the verdict/outcome in dispute 2 approaches, which the CEO has announced can be expected around September 2025.

It is highly unlikely that Zenith would trade around SEK 1.25 before the verdict in dispute 2, which will affect the starting point for dispute 3. Our assessment is that Zenith will trade around SEK 3.00-5.00 at least. All else being equal. Should important/major new information (positive or negative) be released before the verdict/outcome for dispute number 2, this will obviously change the entire analysis – which is of course impossible to predict.

However, with the information we have today, our assessment is that this "bet" (i.e. the share price) should cost SEK 3.00-5.00.

This means that the probability that the stock is undervalued is relatively high.

Note that the company has received a directed issue from two institutional investors in the UK and Norway, amounting to approximately 40 MNOK. This means that two professional investors have invested, have placed a bet of 40 MNOK in this value case/value bet.

The new Dagens Börs analysis gives a near term target price of SEK 3-5. So between 22p to 37p.