Member Info for NoQuestionMarks

The latest production numbers on the dutch oil and gas portal are for January.
They are down a bit on December, but I suppose this could be due to the work programme being executed.
Looking at the last few months the trend is downwards.
January 2023 173,602 boepd.
December 2022 192,025 boepd.
November 2022 186,142 boepd .
October 2022 215,139 boepd.
September 2022 234,302 boepd.
My gut instinct is that AA does have something up his sleeve.
https://www.nlog.nl/en

Hopefully he now understands that a smaller percentage of something is better than a larger percentage of nothing.
In my opinion the floor on gas should be set at around 90p per therm and brent at around $90.
The worrying thing about a labour government is that they would actually cut of their nose to spite their face...

I have jumped back in this morning,
$74 Brent and 2175 Shell seems too low for me.
Morgan Stanley forecast Brent at the back end of 2023 at $90-$100, pre banking jitters of course but I am taking a gamble that interventions in the banking sector will be swift and decisive.
I think Shell will follow BP by paring back plans to reduce oil and gas production in a bid to bring US investors back on board.
If we do we can begin to close the valuation gap between us and Chevron and ExxonMobil.
When asked about Shell’s commitment to reducing oil output, Wael Sawan said the “longevity” of the group’s upstream oil and gas business was “a core part of our focus

A revised offtake and marketing agreement?
Is it on better or worse terms than the one already in place?
Will we ever find out?
On a positive note, the net debt is down £62m from announcement of the deal to completion.
Net debt on 30th of November was £277m.
Net debt on completion £215m
Watching.

This report from Goehring and Rozencwajg discusses shale production and hubbert's peak. It argues that shale production at Bakken and Eagle Ford is entering the decline phase of the curve.
Well worth a read IMO

https://4043042.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4043042/Content%20Offers/2022.Q4%20Commentary/2022.Q4%20GR%20Market%20Commentary.pdf

Full year results tomorrow

Thanks for the updates BillyRayVal and amunro63828,
Rig movements are in line with ops updates which is reassuring.
I am sitting on the sidelines for now, watching closely with a view to getting back in if and when the banking confidence collapse plays out.

Oh yes, poor deluded 'we saved the world' Brown.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYrNCMwxcpk
It was almost as funny as Ed Miliband choking on a bacon sandwich!

It feels like 2007/08 all over again.
First Republic receives $30bn from a syndicate of 11 fellow banks on Thursday, the following day the share price of First Republic closes down nearly 33%
Despite the cash infusion to First Republic PacWest also closed down 19%, Western Alliance down 15%, and US Bancorp down 9%.
Credit Suisse lost nearly 40% of deposits in Q4 and the CDS swap rates have gone into orbit.
cnbc says short sellers are doubling down bets on several european banks - and credit suisse isn't their top target.
In 2008 it took a huge, collective effort from central banks and governments to re-float the banks.
The costs are still being repaid, throw in the pandemic and war in Europe and you have to ask... should they do it? can they do it?

5 weeks of strikes from the 3rd of April until the 5th of May.... possibly a million passports held up in the system.... not good for sentiment.
I got out on Monday when it became clear that SVB was not the only bank with liquidity 'issues.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64981979
I'll be back as and when the chips settle

HL have estimated NAV at 167p.
I think we will see an inflow of funds as investors look for a relatively safe harbour (or windbreak) from the current volatility.

Can Mercuria still pull the plug? I don't know but would be very happy if they did.
If they sign the deal off with the SP at 200p -220p it would imply to me what a great deal they negotiated for themselves.
I liquidated all risk in my portfolio on Monday morning after toying with the idea the previous Friday.
Banking sector jitters, energy prices getting back to pre-pandemic levels but now subject to a 'windfall tax: and, in my opinion, a questionable value placed on the Tailwind assets.
I'm sitting this out until after the transaction and dilution.

From cnbc
"Several bank stocks, including Credit Suisse, were temporarily halted from trade during the morning due to the steep losses. Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, Commerzbank and UBS declined to comment."

Mi Flegg replied to my email Friday evening.
He replied just 20 minutes after I sent my email so I have to give him great credit for that.

His reply to our concerns was to say that the CNR announcement to accelerate the abandonment of Ninian was not entirely unexpected.
He went on to say that he believes that the proposed date for the cessation of production on Ninian is unlikely to have a significant impact on Orlando production.
On Mansell he said that there are other offtake options and that feasibility studies continue.

I fired a brief email to the info@serica-energy.com
The more the merrier in my opinion.
email text below.

Please forward this email to Mitch Flegg.
I am a shareholder in the company.

Dear Mr Flegg,
I assume you are aware of CNR International's decision to accelerate the abandonment of Ninian South and Ninian Central?.
As far as I am aware Orlando produces 4k to 5k boepd through Ninian Central.
I also believe that Mansell would produce through Ninian if it was developed.
This announcement from CNR will obviously have a negative impact on the value of the Tailwind assets.
If the Tailwind acquisition is completed without any adjustment to account for the loss of value it will also presumably have a negative impact on the value of Serica.
I trust you are doing everything in your power to renegotiate the terms of the acquisition ?
I look forward to hearing from the company via rns at the earliest opportunity.

Holy $heet,
One of Tailwinds assets produces through the Ninian Central...
Not good at all.
https://www.tailwind.co.uk/ORLANDO-operation#orlando
"The Orlando field development consists of a subsea tie-back of the single production well to the CNRI operated Ninian Central Platform. The well is completed with sand screens and dual Electric Submersible Pumps (ESPs), to provide artificial lift. A workover of the existing well to replace failed ESPs was completed in August 2022 with subsequent initial production increased to 5,000 bopd. Future Orlando production is expected to be in the 4,000-5,000 bopd range"

idkmybffjill,
Thank you,
You are correct, our production is closer to 9k than 8k.
As oil production is so small I don't usually bother, but as we are scraping for every barrel I will.
Gross oil at GLA was 1158 barrels.
20% of 1158 = 232 barrels net to Kistos.
So, that bumps up production for the month of December to ~8738 boepd.

Idkmybffjill,
By my reckoning the exact figure is 8506 boepd.
GLA
135mmscf/d = 23928boepd
20% of 23928 = 4785boepd net to Kistos.
Q10-A
31.8million Nm3 divided by 31 days = 1.026m Nm3 per day
1.026Nm3 = 6202boepd
60% of 6202 = 3721boepd net to Kistos.

December figures are broadly in line with November.

GLA gross 135MMscf/d (November 134MMscf/d)
Q10-A gross 31.8 million Nm3 (November 30.8 million Nm3)

Production net to Kistos ~8000boepd IMHO.

Lots to digest

Link to the presentation of the annual results
https://www.greencoat-ukwind.com/~/media/Files/G/GreenCoat-UKWind/2022%20AR%20UKW%20vF%20results%20presentation_23022023.pdf

link to the annual report
https://www.greencoat-ukwind.com/~/media/Files/G/GreenCoat-UKWind/documents/Greencoat%20UK%20Wind%20AR%20vF%2023022023.pdf