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Funny how Porchyboy rarely posts during rallies.

Guitarsolo,

It wasn’t a universal yawn.

It would be interesting to try and quantify the risk though.

NSC

Whilst I think the stonegate move is going to be a good thing it might not bring the results that you appear to expect.

It will be on wafer thin margins which will be enhanced by economies of scale for the JV. But, as the market appears to put no value on the JV at all I don’t see it moving the SP meaningfully.

Quite a cash generative dog. Possibly a crufts champion?

Yesterdays upgrade was 80% of a years dividend.

Market Dealer,

I’d add a reversion to the mean yield to the list. The 10 year average LGEN yield is somewhere between 6.5 and 7%. I see no reason why the yield won’t at some point revert closer to the mean and as I expect the dividend to keep rising (even if at a rate below 5%) that means the SP will rise. A yield of 7% gets the SP a tad over 285p.

Given the size of the deferred profits I am very happy to continue to hold and to top up as funds allow.

Bald eagle,

Anything that might impact mortality rates is of interest to LGEN.

NSC

Apologies. If you meant me, I wasn’t intending to be rude.

Blue sonic

Yes, but not that sort of insurance company. If they have any exposure to home and car insurance it will be tiny.

If lots of people die in the flooding then it might have an impact. This might sound callous and simplistic but as they are big into life insurance and annuities it depends upon who dies. If it is people below retirement age with life insurance policies then claims will rise. If it is old people with annuities then liabilities are reduced and profits will rise.

If Mrs Smith needs new carpets and white goods then it won’t even register.

Damonhill,

Any chance of a synopsis for those of us without an Ic sub?

Thx

Beachbum, precisely.

Porky boy appears to have nothing intelligent to say on any of the boards he posts on. His posts are all very much the same in that he proclaims doom for the company and the UK in general and usually blames Brexit. But, he never provides a rationale for his claims.

Although he has this morning, rarely, suggested that the SP will fall if the insurance industry is forced to adopt a mark to market policy rather than the long standing market adjustment policy.

That can be argued many different ways.

But, no reason as to why the dividend should be suspended? It is a prediction that he makes about any dividend paying company. Is it a form of bb poster Tourette’s?

Stocktake and Meconopsis are both spot on imho.

I have a long position here and (as Meconopsis puts it) a seriously long position in LGEN together with a smaller long position in Aviva.

I am building my position in PHNX and the longer the SP remains low (what I consider to be bargain territory) the longer I intend to get; funds permitting.

I am not looking to trade, but to buy, hold and enjoy the dividends in my retirement.

At these dividend rates I am confident that the chances of my money doubling within 10 years are high. I cannot say the same about any of the funds or other holdings in my increasingly unbalanced portfolio.

GLA

NMBS

Showing his working ain’t in Porky boys M O, I’m afraid.

Typo. I meant low rather than long

Pokerchips

Yup.

And in the meantime we get really quite handsomely for our patience.

The longer the price remains long and the longer the company remains undervalued the more I can buy.

GLA

JAdams5000

“See you at 15-20”

Really? That would be roughly 1/6 of the NAV and less than 1x net profit.

Mars is plainly unloved and the debt is an issue but that is absurd. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen of course. The markets are nothing if not unpredictable but I can’t see it being stuck at that level for long.

This is a share for those with great levels of patience.

It is a shame the board turned down 105p.

GLA

Plus they have their market cap again sitting as deferred profits in their balance sheet.

I keep asking myself the same question.

Having just wasted 10 mins scrolling through his previous posts I notice that on the persimmon board he boasted of shorting phnx and having made a killing.

Otherwise he appears to post the same thing on every board.

Porxch

Can you give your reasons for predicting a dividend cut? Or is that just part of the usual incoherent rant?

Predictions of future SP movements are one thing and we can all play that game. But predicting a dividend cut requires some explanation.

Abjectperformer.

Agreed. And in the meantime we can bank 52p pa per share and rising to reward our patience.

It is the security of the dividend that matters.

Toff, apologies. That sounded ruder than I meant it to be and I am not normally rude.

I am however frustrated with predictions of doom that are unaccompanied by any form of rationale beyond “the market knows something we don’t”. We’ve all been around long enough to know that the market is a fickle and unpredictable beast that is often caught out.

I like to buy and hold and therefore pay a lot of attention to the underlying business model and cash projections. I am less concerned by short term sp movements. So, I am interested in your reasons for predicting a dividend cut.

Can you expand on that?