Member Info for NoExcuses

I suspect they are wanting to give a meaningful update on PGM and copper progress for the start of year/month of Jan before releasing the numbers for the last 6 months.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-Copper-Crisis-Threatens-The-Energy-Transition.html

Are we expecting any copper earnings for the last six months? As well as some early earnings from Project Roan we should receiving some copper earnings from an off take agreement which started around April last year.

From April RNS

Long-term Offtake Agreement

In addition to Project Roan's Phase 1 commissioning, Jubilee has entered into a long-term offtake agreement and the Sable Refinery is expecting to start receiving third party copper containing ROM material. Under the terms of this agreement the third-party ROM material will be ramped up to reach 150 tonnes per month of delivered copper units by June 2021.

That’s some hunch! Thanks for your Xmas musings. Excellent post.

Thanks Max, appreciate it. It’s always good to get the thoughts of current holders. I’ll be doing my own research but must say I do like what I’m seeing so far.

Hi Max, I’m interested in this share. What is your realistic 2-3 year price target? If I buy I’d be hoping to exit around end 2023 early 2024.
Would appreciate your thoughts.

Also in the RNS dated 17 Nov 2021, JLP stated:
Jubilee's PGM operational target for the current financial period remains at 50 000 PGM ounces, despite the interruptions to operations during the construction and commissioning of the upgrade programme.
I think there is sufficient confidence in the company that they’ll reach at least 50K PGM ounces by end June 2022 (having reconfirmed this expectation in the latest annual report).

Homey, on your first point in the latest annual report (bottom of pg 10) it says:
The disruption to production caused by this significant Inyoni PGM upgrade during the current H2 CY2021 period is expected to be recovered during H1 CY2022.
Hopefully therefore we’ll see at least 50K of PGM ounces in next year’s accounts to end June 2022.

Jlp has a new auditor (Crowe UK). Last year’s results were audited by Safferey Champness. Not sure if this change in auditor is having an impact on timing.

In my view, confirming the completion and commissioning of the Inyoni expansion and providing an update on Project Roan is material information worthy of an RNS, whilst we wait for the audited results.

I note that the current auditors for the company are Crowe UK. Last year accounts show the auditors as Safferey Champness. When did this change happen and does anyone consider it to be a significant change?

Dorfan, the upgrades will hopefully improve the quality of PGM material to be processed and thereby resulting in more PGM ounces being produced per PGM material being processed. However, I think the issue is that Inyoni’s processing capacity for PGM material (after expansion) is 75K and the question is whether they can produce more PGM ounces than last year based on this capacity only. My understanding is that there are no other PGM processing plants being utilised other than Inyoni.

Thanks. There may be a shortfall with PGM ounces compared to last year but if the copper processing is on track we should still have a good year.

Thanks Mikie. I hadn’t factored in the potential for a richer PGM feed from the newly constructed 80K chrome processor. This could improve the PGM ounces produced. Homey any thoughts on this?

Homey, thanks. Your calculations are in line with mine. I’ve seen some on here forecasting 60K-70K PGM ounces and I’d be keen to understand their reasoning.

Can someone help me with this? According to the latest six month report: Jubilee's PGM operations consist of the Inyoni and Windsor JV PGM operations. The construction of the expanded Inyoni PGM Operations to increase its processing capacity by 45% to 75 000 tonnes per month is complete and commissioning of the expanded operation at Inyoni has commenced.

If we reach the 75,000 processing capacity per month how many PGM ounces does this potentially equate to?

Do we have access to any other processing plants for PGMs?

I’m trying to work out, with the processing capability that we have, whether we can actually produce more PGM ounces than we did last year to end June 2021 (@50K).

Appreciate your thoughts.

Hi JLPpositive, thanks I read that too. But it also says (in the last 6 month update) that the PGM processing facility is targeted to commence commissioning by end August 2021, and elsewhere it says that the construction of the expanded Inyoni operations is expected to be completed during Q3 2021. It is not clear from this whether construction has actually completed and commissioning has started or has also completed. Nothing as yet has been confirmed by the company hence I am seeking clarification from them. If I hear anything will let you know.

Does anyone know whether the construction of the expanded Inyoni PGM operations has been completed and, if so, whether the commissioning of the operations has started?

I understand the above was planned by end Sep but it is not clear from recent communication whether this has been achieved or not?

I’ve emailed JLP but am yet to receive a reply.

Homey, you say:
Until then [2023] JLP will see a drop in earnings and bigger drop in EPS. That’s a bold statement- what makes you so sure of this?
According to WHI they expect 2021/22 revenue, pre-tax profit and earnings per share (EPS) to double again to £243m, £96m and 3.4p, respectively.

Billyboy, I agree the downtime was planned and their target was achieved, hence as far as I am concerned very satisfied with the way things are progressing.