GUESSTIMATE3 Feb 2013 08:41
The only fly in the ointment is a fact, and an opinion based on the fact, made by a reasonably sharp and experienced mining analyst..Katie.
The fact...the fire at Tongon...followed by site visit by Kate, who said
"Kate Craig, analyst at Liberum Capital, retained a "hold" on the stock, but added: "The fire at Tongon comes at the end of a challenging year at the mine which has seen production guidance fall from 285,000 ounces at the start of the year. In effect, the fire allows management to kitchen sink the unresolved issues at Tongon. We expect the plant to be up and running within 10 days in a slightly limited capacity, ie lower throughput and recoveries into the first quarter of 2013."
Why run with Kate?....a trained Geologist, turned analyst. I may be mistaken, but I cant call her judgement into question. So, where will it go, the 4th qtr report....couched in terms of....we didnt make target for the end of year, not due to poor management nor lack of quality ore, but due to output having been reduced due to the time loss suffered as a result of the fire at Tongon. With that matter now resolved, and output likely to increase due to Kibala coming onstream, 2013 will see improvement in ounces produced, with full production scheduled for 2014.
Slight increase in SP to kick off, followed by growth in SP ( and production) as the year progresses.