Member Info for nims

I am so nervous at present this is my first trade in a non ftse 100 in 2017, but all in the books look good. Company did refinance and increaded OD limit which means they have good cash in bank and well funded. Today's price between £8.04 and £8.05 holding is indicating a positive move up. RSI not dropping below 35 after a few testing levels means that if BRSN hold above £8.05 today then we will se a nice quick rise up to £8.25. GLA, if anyone has any info on BRSN then please also share, HSBC have a target of £9.40 but estimated profit of £150 is more than last year and if legacy issues are resolved in 2nd half then BRSN will test £10

Hi Picket, good luck on DEB mate, I know you have done well trading that. I will now wait until next week for any further purchases, BP. Looks good however I am hoping tomorrow with all the Brexit stuff happening will present some buying opportunities. I am also looking at Meggit as that has shown signs of a potential move, a few others have come on the radar UU. and SSE, however my gut is telling me they look overpriced, gut vs graphs, gut always wins ;). I'll keep you posted once i know which stock I am going to buy. BP RSI stabilising at 40 range, if it does stabilise and sp holds £4.65 then potential tick up.

Thanks Borgy, very thourough analysis. The EMEA 200 is also showing a crossover on aswell so there seems to be move upwards. However the reason why I have a resistance at £4.65 is because I use a 10year chart, a bit mad I know, but I find with a daily chart you have to tune into a lot of market news and listen out for statements from fed, ecb, as well as keeping an eye on China. Picket I am still in Sbry and vod, but may pull out of vod if it hits £2.04 as I think there might be some good shorter term trades in oil and banking stocks. I probably will not buy anything until I have reviewed the markets over the weekend or any big ftse has been oversold, at present there is a massive bullish run so better to be patient :).

Agreed on BP long term prospects, I will be more confident in holding slightly longer once we have clarity around Brexit and the actual exit strategy. Whilst pound is weakening against the dollar many companies are in black due to exchange rate, however the tide will turn and pound will strengthen

Sorry was meant to write 10yr rsi is still below 50 as it's at 40 at mo there is still good signs of a price up, 10yr ema 200 also showing a positive move, yet my formula is not showing a new price range, lol I wanted a new price range so badly, oh well let's wait and see.

Hi mate hope all is well with you and hope you're enjoying trading glen. I just sold BP and got a good price £4.64, not huge profit bagged around £300 after fees etc... but as always I get nervous and did not want to wait for £4.65, I get the feeling I have sold early again, but i am just waiting to see now how the trump affect and Brexit will impact sp over the next few days. I am watching for another buy in opportunity in BP. Potentially at a higher sp but all good. JMO / Borgy any help from a technical standpoint will be appreciated, in terms of where you both see next resistance, I ran the numbers this morning and £4.65 still looks like a sticking point, though the RSI is showing that

Hey picket hope all is well mate. I am not posting on VOD board as there are some who quite unecessarily rude. I noticed the Director buys and always a good sign. Glen doing well for and long may it continue. Strangely the economy as a whole seems to be doing well. Brexit news in march will be the highlight. BP is holding strong today. Rest day for me tomorrow so hopefully no massive movements in VOD or BP. Have a lovely weekend mate and will catch up next week.

Thanks JMO. Lol that formula came from some hard learning. What started out as lucky trades back in the day and following some dodgy brokers tips made me a bit of money, but I mistook those for skill, and lost a lot of money. I then watched a YouTube video on intelligent investing and read the intelligent investor edition 6, read up on Woodford, Schaffer and a dodgy technical analyst called Zak Mir and started to build a formula, started with small trades backend of 2015 and finalised this model early 2016, tested on a few small stocks see my post last march on tristel board and then moved on to big boys, glen, Barc, Rps etc... 2016 was a good year, 2017 started well and if BP does what I hope it will then I am moving in the right direction. I ain't gonna share the formula but you're a smart guy so I'm sure you'll create you're own successful model.

Its fair enough you asking for reasons for jumping in, however before I go into detail, I want to make clear is these are numbers I use and no way does it mean people on this site should use them and justify their entry as what I do is not a verified format by experts. Also I am only going to share a snippet of info as many can get this, the conspiracy theorist in me does not want to share how I calculate price ranges. First thing I look for is: 1) Is the company profit making and will they make a profit (BP made £172m last year on annual report net, this gives me an actual EPS of 507.01, thats crazy high but as always I explain I am very risk averse) 2) I look at balance sheet and potential growth, one thing to note in a challenging market where oil price is low and many impairment charges BP have £23bn in cash. How many people or companies do you know hold so much cash, as I mentioned a few cuts of projects and reduction in CAPEX will mean they will have more cash to burn long term. Roneft for me is the main risk in BP but I am confident thats priced in the SP. Any way Book value per share for BP really good at 0.901, even young buffet would be proud of that. 3) Graham score, unfortunately this is well above what I like at 101.35. Graham liked a score of 25, however I don't believe that is right in this day and age as there are many in aim at 25 score, I have figured out what is right for the current market in the 21st century, but I will let you all figure out what is a good score. Now one thing many will say is BP sp at 101 score means it's expensive and I would agree. However BP hit 101 cos they made £172m profit from a £4bn loss last year, as profitability will be higher this year when Brent Rebounds (these are assumptions) the graham score will be in line with RDSA and EXXON. 4) Debt, BP is highly geared 27%, but their target is 27%-30% as this is a huge company with strong cash not an issue, if this was TLW then yes worry. 5) I calculate a 10yr RSI and that puts BP at 20, so anyway BP will have to get to 70 RSI. If BP SP drops from here by 8% then yes I need to be out as that signals further drop to new resistant levels. Which means get out, and if fundamentals are right buy back cheaper. Also you can put in other companies to recover. One mistake people make is hold on to losses to. point they never recoup 6) There is also a secret formula I have created but I will not share - sorry guys, the hedge fund guys will have to pay me billions for it, but so far so good. It could be sheer luck, but I have tested on a few stocks outside FTSE 100, I don't know if I mentioned AMS and RPS, I posted on both shares when they were at £1.60 last year, lol I sell early but the growth was crazy. I also tested on AIM GETECH and so far nothing has shown the formula does not work. But it can't predict worldly craziness like Trump / Brexit etc... GLA in BP. Also Picket Thanks, lol I lied SBRY was the outlier :)

Jmo strategy is a simple one for me only buy ftse 100, look at stocks that are slightly depressed in value, they make a net profit and where net profit will increase the following year, look to handle debt and pay a divi. There are plenty ftse 100 that meet the bill, however with BP oil is stabilising nicely and a move upwards in oil price will push BP up with it. For me looking at daily price movements calculating macd, moving averages etc... and placing a short against a long is stressful and 90% lose money with typical hedge fund manager type tactics. I have found a way that uses buffet value investing with some technical analysis that has so far worked for me over 2016 and start of 2017. It has taken a while to get to this stage with many strategies trailed and lost money. Let's see if I'm right with BP I'm in with a £15k investment at £4.51. I am already down about £300 including fees and stamp duty. One thing is that I am no fool and if BP drops another 8% then I'll take the hit and move. I am not an investment advisor and please do not follow my strategy and there are other factors that I can't predict for. Like most of you all I am learning everyday and testing the markets to make a living. The other thing to note is only play with money you can afford to lose. £15k is just that for me as I'm mortgage free and do not use loans of credit cards etc... if you have any debt make sure that's all cleared before even putting a penny in the markets. I've been trading for a long time and I am still not rich from it. Property for me was my golden ticket

Hi Borgy my charts and methodology is very complex and it does not follow conventional charting methods. I actually bought in today at £4.51 but I'm not worried provided my £4.48 - £4.52 range is held today and tomorrow. Remember the markets always force you to be twitchy. I put some inflationary values on estimated profits for 2017 and increase in assets. I also put in a Graham score and looked at current RSI and it shows that BP has been oversold. If you also compare with peers it's strong and with Middle East deals in place it's playing out well. I don't day trade so I am only long and will be long until my price target hits. After the close tomorrow I will be more confident in my purchase of BP shares, but with a decent divi and 1st quarter 2017 results predicted to be better than 4th quarter 2016 there is room for sp growth in BP. It's a strong company so keep faith. My target price if we close above £4.48 tomorrow is £4.65 and once hit I will re review target.

BP today has shown signs that it will break away from £4.50 to £4.60 quite swiftly. howevwr in order to do this BP will need to hold £4.48 - £4.52 price range for close today and tomorrow. If held then BP will fly to £4.60 and may even touch £4.75. Looking at their books in more detail it isn't all bad news. Bp can easily raise capital if needed and all they have to do is stop some key projects and they save billions. Also oil price WTI and Brent has stabilised so $60 a barrel Brent is possible over the next 4 months. GLA and let's hope my data charts are right. Can't wait for closing bell now

Hey picket hope all is well mate. Vod now flying and starting to show some resistance at £2.02 so hopefully £2.07 will be coming sooner than expected. I have gone into BP today and avoided miners for now. I got abut lucky yesterday morning as I bought CPI at £4.97 as a guy trade as my original research on CPI showed any price aroun £5 a buy sold out a bit too early again at £5.36 but up a solid amount in a day. More on BP board if you're interested in why I'm in BP GLA in VOD this share is starting to come good again.

Hi Picket thanks for the heads up on companies posting next week. Yes the strikes have helped with pushing share price up for glen, I will check your post this evening, I'm tempted to make a small trade on glen or anto, just need to look at the numbers and guess where they could be heading, with pound weak it should also help as commodities trade in $. The interesting thing about glen is I think they also have an investment arm that is currently making money so as a medium term hold glen is well worth it.

Hi Picket like the word glen fever. Stay strong and glen will work out for you. I'm gutted with ABF as always I sold too early, I do this too much and may be need to be a bit more confident in holding longer. I'm now eagerly waiting for 3rd march and Brexit news from House of Lords, I'm sure this will have some impact on the markets and allow me to buy some cheap stock. I was glancing my analysis of ftse 100 and there is no buying opportunities highlighted, I am tinkering with the formula as I'm very risk averse at the moment and might take a bit more of a gamble. What's your take on copper at the moment im looking at glen and anto post 3rd march. once Vod hits £2.08 which should be either next week or week after.

Hey picket hope all is well for you. Just sold out of ABF up 6% in total and could have pushed for more but as previously discussed not greedy. Feb started out a bad month but now looking good secured profits and now waiting for VOD to hit £2.08 and will be a fantastic month. Only 2 stocks held and getting itchy fingers on next buy I'll keep you posted so far BP if it can drop further may be cheap especially if poo goes north. How are you doing on glen? Vod showed very good signs yesterday for a spike up over £2 over next few weeks. If it rises above yesterday's closing today then vod price target could change to £2.15. GLA all in VOD and any other shares you're in

Hi Toff, In essence at the time of purchase you thought the company was worth £55bn if you bought the shares at £2.07. I have been a vod customer for nearly 17 years, 0purely due every time I try to leave they give me a better deal. Their service has improved within that time frame. In the early 2000 vod staff used to lie a lot when trying to upgrade but now they are more honest. I still think £60bn for a global company like vod is fair value, as it makes a good return, employs thousands of people. On a plus note if VOD stays above its closing yesterday at close today then we should see vod close the week at above £1.97. GL toff im sure you'll see a return from vod and like you said a healthy divi alone warrants holding.

Toff you're a bit of a conspiracy theorist I reckon. Stocks that are making money or show signs of good future growth trade on logic. However I agree there are loads of stock that do not trade on any logic e.g penny shares on Aim market or Plus. However with VOD it's pure logic their trading update was upbeat, strong divi and if India is sorted then it is a no brainier. I guess the question is if you was to value VOD or had enough cash to buy them, what would you pay to own the company?

Hi Picket, you taking a very risky strategy and I hope it works out for you mate. However don't make the cardinal mistake of chasing a single stock unless you really believe in the fundamentals. For me I am happy to sit and wait on vod if it takes 6 days or 6 months to hit target price doesn't bother me. So far I am at a loss on ABF and VOD so not a strong Feb, however both give divis and both when breakout happens will put me back in profit as done my due diligence on them. Make sure you get out of glen on a decent profit early and hold the cash as some good buying opportunities in VOD will present itself. GLA

What nutjob reckoned VOD would drop by 50p, that would mean VOD would be at £1.40 a share and would value the largest telecoms company behind at&t at £37bn ish, very silly statement. After digesting VOD q3 update I think it reads better than expected, the board are upbeat. A company that makes billions in revenue will not just tank unless there is some major news. Also balance sheet is in affected off the back off the price drop I bought more shares at £1.91. Vod price target also changed from £2.06 to £2.09, I think if we can all hold our nerve then we will do well (hopefully). The hopefully the sp can drop a little tomorrow below closing price a drop to £1.9230 will keep the bullish stance on vod. However the drop to £1.86 was well overdone. Rsi also shows that vod is heading upwards all in all we should keep the faith. Q4 results, India sorted solid divi, Gla and hopefully the butjob who reckons a 50p drop on no significant news stops investing as I bet he's losing a load of money.