Member Info for NigelHaemoglobin

Sheep (apt name), the risk profile of He1 before initial well results was adverse therefore profit taking was rational.

The risk profile after well analysis was greatly altered, hence my buys at 1.7-1.9 and subsequent crystallisation of 25-30% profit was also rational: leaving some to run.

The financial, regulatory and technical risk graph here has also changed and +/- 1 p I am calling the inflection point for PRD. Plenty of risks ahead but no immediate placings (barring an MOU-5 success). If MOU-5 is a success particularly if MOU-4 testing is good to very good then you should anticipate a possible open offer to shareholders.

Having achieved an oversubscribed placing at 11p, battled through regulatory hurdles and had, possibly, their last significant technical difficulties PRD have modest potential.

I see no reason for the company to place shares until well after MOU-5. If MOU-5 is a major discovery though a decision window will open for the BOD. If they can launch a placing at >50p that is perfectly rational.

PRD are always very confident. Third time in Morocco under different wrappers.

Haha! Ok that's your opinion but no one else called the series of placings.

You could have lowered your average by 50-60% easily and thus complied with the first rule of investing which is the conservation of capital.

But you didn't!! Hilarious.

Not averse to a spot of Hydrocarbon based extreme Capitalism though are you matey? According to Marx those resources and that wealth belongs to the workers as a global movement.

So you are required to donate and redistribute any earnings from capital gains and dividends to the workers of the world retaining only the average worker's wage for your family.

Bit of a paradox aren't you?

A-haaaaa I knew the thing was a socialist, not hard to spot the signs. Actually a hard leftist loony of the type who would sell your culture, your lands and your blood down the river!

'Faith indeed', filth is more apt.

Hello fellow rationalist and thank you. Anyone managing their weighting around those placings would still be safe now, ie with single digit averages.

I did post though that after the large raise, the M5 wildcat and the possibility that Afrique or whatever it is called will sign that placing calls would be difficult.

If I could speculate a placing I would but ethically speaking it would be misleading at the moment. I am not a ramper/deramper as by definition such types trade on their bilge, fibs and twaddle. You have enough of those here already.

I only called the placings as an exercise in virtual decision making, trading simulator if you prefer.

Adon

Re your last para, you know that a rod pump is a nodding donkey right?

Fair point but why was the market not informed?

Even the latest delays not announced. On Jan26 (late) he announced that testing would commence on or around Jan29 (later), today's RNS states "Phase 1 rigless testing operations commenced on 10 February 2024 after arrival at the well", even later.

Can this chap run an actual bath? I bet there will be an article on TW's site this evening...

JohnH

The herd neither read the rns's or interpret them. Chipfat Bob being the worse. Unfortunately the sub-equatorial one has internet and apparently satellite access?? Inexplicable.

The Sandjet idea has been a pantomime from day dot but yes they do have a chance of salvaging the operation.

There is also a chance that the next wildcat ie MOU-5 will be a discovery.

All petroleum geologists have to test and conduct experiments i.e wells and testing. No amount of surface geology and sub surface imaging can replace the drillbit and perforation based testing.

At least the Jan12 RNS indicated, in the standard waffly form, that standard gun testing was an experiment to define a further experiment: namely Sandjet testing.

A couple of testing/experiment attempts ago Sandjetting was abandoned as the hire period ran out.

Here is your priority risk, free of charge and straight from management. "Depending on the results of the Phase 1 rigless testing, Petroleum Agreement Amendment #4 would also potentially facilitate an application by 5 March 2024 for a single Exploitation Concession over the area tested by MOU-1 and MOU-3, providing geological continuity of potential gas reservoirs can be demonstrated".

Geological continuity is the key phrase.

So, all this satellite watching, ramping by he of Latitudes South who should remain nameless has been a waste of time.

The best geologists in the world view wells and testing as imperative experiments. Dave Bodecott is in my view the one best geologists and hunter of hydrocarbons along with a few others.

My view is that PG should consult his peers regularly.

Indeed, as for GRH I'm not impressed by calling GKP/SOU as buys then correctly calling failure. Could that happen here? Michael Caine blah blah £456/share rant rant etc etc.

I suppose calling reversals in these outfits is both intelligent and honest though.

Better to make investments in companies that are long term success cases surely.

Thank you Jimmy

Around two years feels about right for initial and probably modest deliveries. I say modest in the context that the downstream business needs to be developed from the ground up. This also takes time.

That said if the current testing produces sub par results I may have a gamble on MOU-5. Long shot though and will be based on independent analysis of GCOS if available and most definitely not 'management estimates'.

Indeed Justathought.

The He1 prospectus is very clear about the rights of the state to take a large share in the company. BIR's as we call them in oil and gas.

Well Slacker, two points.

Firstly do research before investing.

Secondly trade the news driven volatility in AIM.

Then you won't be one of the 90% tribe permanently broke.

Spot on Sharebright. Short positions though with derivatives are perfectly ethical. There are some really stinking outfits in AIM created purely for director personal gains and they deserve a good hammering!

Impossible to call at the moment but IF He1 can verify reserves then we could be looking at an mcap several tens of the present value. Totally new to He and to an extent Hydrogen but in the hydrocarbon business investors can freely download and study the PRMS manual which is not wholly difficult to understand. I'll look online and perhaps make the journey to BGS HQ for an afternoon's research.

In at 1.7, crystallised some profit at 2.1-2.35 but holding a tranche as a high risk investment.

A presentation in 2022 clearly indicates commencement of a CNG development (spades in ground) around Summer 2023.

Q for Jimmy. If PRD do produce commercially viable production graphs from the current testing how would you manage it? Let's assume that it is a large resource.

Would you require more appraisals confluent with 3D Seismic?

How long would the FEED process take?

What would a rational timeline be to arrive at first gas, not an EWT but actual sustained production?

Given the relentless delays I would go for 18-24 months from today with two years being more probable.

Still potentially worth a fortune though well before first gas.

Not really Chesh, my approximation is to give a sense of scale! 7Bcf He may not seem much but to put it into context the value is not too far from a Tcf natural gas find.

Got it?