focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
"Another way to look at it is WPP down 20% YoY. SFOR down 77%. So market effect 20% ish. S4 effect 55% ish."
The thing is WPP share price does move up on good days in the market, while S4 just moves down and is always one of the largest percentage fallers on down days in the market. I think that this fall is way over done, but I thought that at 100p, so I give up. I don't see anything changing until management restore some confidence with results.
I bet that the director who sold almost 2 million shares at around 160p is pleased. I only wish that I had followed him, but it is what it is, I will hold and hope that management are up to turning this around, or maybe a takeover bid. M/Cap now less than what S4 paid for Media Monks.
"They have insider information's which others dont.. It looks like another profit warning coming.. otherwise why would someone short at below 50p!"
I guess Aegon haven't been privy to the inside information? With them happy picking up almost 11 million shares this week.
Update taken from Bloomberg regarding S4 Capital's largest shareholders. Courtesy of RackersTheDon, a poster over on ADVFN.
https://i.postimg.cc/Nfn5qWBX/SFOR.jpg
1pencil...... "S4 has a lot of movers and shakers onboard, would be surprised if talks even at low levels are not already being aired."
I maybe wrong here but my thoughts are this, with management already owning 40% of S4 Capital, it would be in their best interest to take S4 private for the time being, wait until the economy recovers and S4 are making a profit and then float on the USA Nasdaq where if truth be told it should have IPO in the first place with the majority of its business in the USA.
Would management be able to raise the cash needed to take S4 Capital private? If so, at what price would us small shareholder be offered for our shares, what would be a fair price?
Maybe the large USA institutions would be willing to be private owners until S4 floats again in the US.
Any thoughts on this?
1pencil.... "Got to be on someone's radar:"
You would think so at this valuation. Considering that S4 purchased Media Monks for £266m, Current S4 M/Cap £277m with Net Debt expected in the region of £220m. Maybe a predator is waiting for the Q4 results?
If S4 disappoint (yet again) I dread to think where the share price will be. But if results are good this would put a floor under the share price, and we would all be looking up rather than down. Its time for management to step up.
Jacob predicts that S4 Capital share price will double this year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=paWzn5vqGUE&t=303s
“S4 Capital should be able to return c. £35m to shareholders in FY24E, or 10% of market capitalisation. This would be a positive, unless our forecasts are still too high”
I am really really cautious but there’s good upside if management can get their act together and return to growth. Just be prepared for another big gap down if they spectacularly disappoint again
Averaged down into #SFOR at 54p. Just over 1/3 of sale value that was taken above 100p. I won’t be going any higher on current knowns.
If current consensus of a c.20% fcfy was proven correct then this sp flourishes but we wait to see if the major downgrade cycle is complete. The optimum trade (if any) would be to wait until news-flow but I haven’t done so.
Execution has been dismal over the last couple of years.
#S4Capital
Redwineday, yes mate, you would think that someone with his vast history of the ad market that S4 wouldn't have made the mistakes that it has. He's said that he doesn't expect the ad market to improve until after the USA election, so November next year. Is he just playing things down here? I think so. With inflation dropping in the UK & USA and now markets thinking that interest rates will be dropping far sooner than previously thought, this should help the economy recover. So maybe SMS will change his opinion.