Member Info for Nig1954

That’s my best guess

Just for a bit of perspective it was interesting to note that yesterday Moody's affirmed Orbcomm's negative rating at Caa1 which ensures that it remains deep in speculative territory.

Orbcomm was one of a number of companies which Igor cited 4 years ago as being those whom t42 were in close competition with. It was bought out in 2021 in a highly leveraged deal by a private equity fund at a substantial premium to its market value.

It has been constrained by weak credit metrics due to weaker than expected earnings which has meant that its debt/EBITDA has remained above 10X due to the company’s limited ability to convert strong order wins into revenue as well as pressure on EBITDA from higher costs. A 10X ratio of debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization is considered high by most metrics.

The timing of that deal probably didn't help as nobody could foresee at that point that we were about to embark on a rapid uptake in bank base interest rates. The cost of financing that debt has significantly impacted on Orbcomm's subsequent results and the reference to competitive pricing could be interpreted as an attempt to buy business which hasn't yet borne fruit because its been operating on wafer thin margins but has struggled to become profitable because of the interest cost of its borrowings.

This is a cut throat industry and the rapid pace of technological advancement is undoubtedly affecting all participants. Interestingly, it has had to replace existing customer devices operating on legacy 3G technology , which limited its growth from new subscribers coupled with elevated churn from legacy customers, resulted in lower net subscriber growth and a decline in service revenue during the year. In addition, devices shipped by the company but not activated by its customers during the year also contributed to the drop in its service revenue.

So even large companies aren't having it all their own way and have been suffering from the same problems as t42.That isn't intended as an excuse for t42's failings but maybe management deserve some plaudits for having managed to survive for so long without significant dilution of long term holders.

I appreciate there is still the CULN issue to be resolved. It was last extended to the end of May 2025 and there is currently much uncertainty in terms of how this will eventually play out. The fact that both lenders have to date not pressed this issue gives some support to the claim that they must have seen something positive to indicate that the company has a future.

However, if a material order does arise then one suspects that a cash placing will be required as presumably this will be undertaken under the new leasing model.

The rapid pace of technological advancement may have caused potential customers to defer from placing orders and Igor said at the AGM that customers parameters were constantly changing.

T42 elected many years ago to go down the bespoke solution route and a lot of thought was put into choosing the right architectural design for their software products so that they could more easily modify its features as technological advancement gathered pace thereby avoiding the requirement "to reinvent the wheel". This high internal quality leads to faster delivery of new features and enables t42 to remain at the cutting edge of technological advancement which produces a much quicker payback period.

Hopefully our collaboration and partnership with a leading global firm providing sustainable solutions across the cold chain will shortly reap its rewards. The prototype is in testing and we've recently learned that our Lokies smart padlock has passed its test with flying colours so the evidence suggests that our technology is meeting the mark and upon successful completion of testing there are strong indications it will be implemented fleet-wide. We're just waiting for some material orders when the technology has been validated and once this is supported by strong financial fundamentals the company should be ready to embark upon the next stage of its expansion phase. Fingers xd.

Https://bit.ly/4iFzxUE

This recently released video demonstrates why multimodal transport is the key to efficient, cost effective and sustainable logistics by combining different transport modes-road,rail,air and sea-to enhance supply chain visibility, reduce transit times and minimise costs and how implementing multi modal transport can streamline your logistics operations.

Optimising logistics with seamless connectivity is leveraging technology and partnerships to create a streamlined, efficient, and transparent supply chain,enabling real-time visibility and agile decision making. This requires AI-powered Predictive Analytics, Blockchain for Visibility and IoT driven Asset Tracking. Strategic partnerships through collaborations with suppliers, carriers and distributors allows for sharing information, streamlining operations and improving communications. When all parts of the supply chain are interconnected from source to delivery that creates a seamless experience.

Optimising transportation routes through the analysis of data identifies the most efficient routes, taking account of factors like traffic, distance and delivery times.

Regularly monitoring KPI's will identify areas for improvement. The logistics network can then adapt to changing demands and market conditions.

Global businesses are now seeking logistics partners who can help them drive bottom-line results and this is being fuelled by cutting-edge technology which is the cornerstone of effective logistics management. Every business is unique with its own challenges and constraints. The one-size-fits-all solution doesn't work so companies are seeking close collaborations with those who understand their specific needs and tailor their services accordingly to craft solutions that align with their customers goals and drive measurable results.

Igor said at the last AGM that t42 was now concentrating upon companies who liked the technology and that it took priority over pricing and that they were dispensing with any POC's that were a waste of resources.

He also confirmed that the Mexican contract announced at the back end of last year had taken over 2 years to activate because of all the legal hoops that had to be overcome with the Mexican government.

He advised they had several significant pilots underway but the customers parameters were constantly changing partly due to the rapid advancement in technological capabilities. Therefore, a delay of 2 years in bringing a contract to execution stage would not be unusual in the future

I don’t think he’s aware of the significance of that comment. Probably passed over his head.

Don't overlook the recent collaboration between AT&T and Eseye relating to global connectivity 24/7,ultra low latency and the impact on IoT sensors deploying AI optimisation.

Eseye being in close collaboration with t42 and AT&T being one of the largest telecom providers in Latin America which is where t42's Latin American consortium is based who are behind those large LatAm contracts

That contract is for 7 years and is only worth $5 million over that entire period with supposedly 50000 connections coming live this year and a further 20000 in each successive year.

This won’t keep the lights on. It’s noticeable that they haven’t said how many connections will be made which suggests it will be less than the 50000 they initially suggested otherwise they’d have screamed the actual number from the rooftop.

This is just limping along at the moment with no news of any discernible material orders. This isn’t a new order as it was announced in December 2024. Hence no RNS.

Let’s see what the trading update says although that was supposed to be released in February according to comments made at the last AGM

Furthermore we’re awaiting news about the extended CULN’s which if not extended may result in a significant dilution for all existing shareholders.

BOD needs to do much better to back up their claims of this company becoming the global/market leader in container tracking.

Their words not mine.

The terms of the placement seem overly generous. Why is there a need to attach warrants when it’s already heavily discounted and there’s the pending possibility of a heavy share dilution in 2 months if the CULN’s are converted into Equity Also

Also, is this placement with new or existing investors?

The reasons given in the RNS for this placement are spurious and cover a multitude of possibilities

Additional working capital to keep the lights on?

Financing future orders, large or small?

Enhancing marketing expenditure- current or a new approach?

Something intriguing is the reference to possible European Orders -none have been mentioned in recent RNS’s

At the last AGM Igor said that all previously mentioned proofs of concept were still up in the air with many taking much longer to convert because the parameters were constantly changing- does this mean that Bosch/DHL or DB Schenkers may be approaching fruition?

Lots of questions, no answers but news of further order completions are urgently needed as otherwise the sp will decline as Investors come to their own conclusions.

A trading update which addresses the issues raised at the last AGM and which was promised is now required so that we can make our own informed decisions

It's reasonable to assume that the prospect of share dilution is holding back some Investors who want to see whether the Loans are converted into Equity and I don't blame them in that respect

Based on current known events it's difficult to envisage that t42 will have sufficient funds to repay these Loans BUT there's always the possibility that the Loans could be extended for a further period, again

I think 2025 is going to be a pivotal year. At the last AGM Igor said they were entering their growth phase and managing to cope with existing resources. He also said they were currently on the right track and expecting to see significant change by the end of 2025.

It's only then that we will know if the contract awards announced throughout 2024 have in fact yielded the levels of business alluded to in their RNS's.

Here's the link required to attend the AGM:

https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_NWRmZGNmNGMtOTdlYS00M2EzLWJlMDYtNDQyNjE4YWVjY2Yx%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%22979406d0-ac76-4ca4-8b92-51f4fd3a908f%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%2219b25ee5-b630-4839-b611-7691a3631ac5%22%7d

I trust everyone has now had an opportunity to read through the notice of the AGM and that they're able to digest what the potential implications are for their investment in t42.

It's time to see what the BOD has in store for all of us. I sincerely hope for everyone's sake that it's going to be some good news given what shareholders have had to put up with over the last couple of years.

If the Loan/ Equity conversion proceeds then power and control vests in the hands of the Lenders. Let's all hope they're inclined to deal with the remaining investors in a lenient manner

Let's hope it's the news we're all waiting for.

This company isn't dodgy, far from it. The BOD have in the past treated their Investors very fairly and have always acted in their long term interests which is not a common feature amongst many other AIM companies. During Covid they deferred Directors' salaries and Consultants fees and also made personal Loans to the company to help them transition through this period when cashflow was non-existent due to perpetual lockdowns. Also, post-covid some Directors converted all/part of their deferred salaries into Equity to help the company's cashflow so they should be commended for their actions.

The Directors failings have been in relation to how they have managed the announcement of the potentially large LatAm contract for which they provided a valuation and estimated timescale. In reaction to this the sp peaked on 17/1/22 at a closing price of 26p having reached an intra-day high of 30p on the strength of this news.

Since then we've been continuously informed that these contracts are imminent until we were told there were local political issues which we were advised would be short-term. Since then we've received no assurances that execution of these contracts is going to materialise which has left Investors to decide for themselves what is the current state of affairs.

Many have lost patience and decided to bail out and this is why the sp has declined over the last 2 years. I'm positive that these contracts are still in the offing but it's the silence from the BOD of the reasons for the continued delays which has led to the negative sentiment which is now firmly reflected in the current sp.

The Directors need to be more open with their Investors and provide a satisfactory explanation. They remain bullish about the future of this company and when the 2024 Interims were recently received they confirmed, "This positive trend continues to strengthen. More and more customers are being introduced to our monitoring solutions, additional pilots are underway, and the existing market potential is converting into tangible business deals............ the increase in anticipated orders for 2024 is a significant step towards achieving the Company's potential and its ambition to lead the market in the coming years, in line with our renewed strategy".

Furthermore they went on to say "We are already engaged in discussions with clients to enhance existing supply contracts. It's now clear that we are not just participating in this market-we are a key player".

This renewed optimism needs to be reflected within their financial results. When the market has sight of the improvement in it's financial performance then sentiment will become more positive and this will eventually be reflected in a strong sp. However, for this to happen we need to see evidence of contract wins with material and substantial values which then become reflected within the financial results. Hopefully, we're moving in that direction.

I'm not sure that's relevant anymore given their past optimism that has continuously proved to be ungrounded.

On 17/12/21 they announced the potential LatAm contract with projected revenues in excess of $40Million

On 14/9/22 the 2022 interims were delivered and they announced the expectation of over $55Million in trading solutions in LatAm over the next 5 years as execution stage approaches

On 16/2/23 the 2022 results were announced and political issues were said to be impacting on potential LatAm orders which they anticipated would occur in H1/23

On 26/6/23 the 2022 final results were released and they expected an increase in LatAm business in H2/23

on 27/9/23 the 2023 interims were released and revenues were $500K down on H1/22 but they were still expecting 2023 to show a significant improvement on 2022 and anticipating substantial LatAm orders based on discussions with Distributors

On 7/3/24 a trading update on the 2023 final results confirmed that revenues would be similar to 2022 despite previous repeated assertions they would be much better but no mention of LatAm

On 30/9/24 the 2024 Interims were released again with no reference to LatAm

It's approaching the end of 2024 and still no reference to any further LatAm orders in relation to a 5 year contract which has so far yielded very little and there's only 2 years left before the agreement expires.

Over 50% of our annual revenue is from legacy SaaS income so there's very little evidence of any additional business reflected within our financials.

We're constantly told that our revenues are weighted towards H2 but again recent results don't depict this.

The Argentina agreement announced on 13/7/22 along with the Mexican and Brazilian contracts announced in HI/24 have no bearing on the initial LatAm agreement announced back in 2021.

This is why the market is losing faith in the BOD and why the sp has continued to slide for several months because investors have clearly lost patience that t42 is capable of living up to the claims of its Directors. Annual revenues have been on the slide for over 3 years with nothing included within the financials which implies that they're capable of getting anywhere close to the figures they've previously published.

Also, there's the question of a huge dilution in shareholdings hanging over the company if the existing CLN's are converted into Equity and that's also proving to be a huge drag on the sp.

Quite simply the Directors need to deliver on their past promises and if nothing is forthcoming soon then sadly I suspect that many investors could loose a substantial part of their investment.

No, they don't. It's up to t42 to decide what information should be released to the market. However, with the sp constantly sliding possibly due to long term holders bailing out or having to sell for other reasons I would have thought they would want to inform the market of any positive news.

2 orders were announced in May 2024 referring to orders later in 2024 of 10,000 units each. Given that one of these contracts included an initial order of 3,500 units which was RNS'd then I'm confident that any further orders will also be RNS's as the BOD will wish to provide support to the sp.

It’s a reflection of the transfer of part of Avi’s shareholding to A-Labs in full settlement of an outstanding loan to them which they’ve converted into Equity at the expense of our largest shareholder reducing his shareholding.

Furthermore this has been undertaken at a premium of over 100% of the existing share price at the time when this announcement was made

I’m convinced that the market hasn’t yet fully digested the significance of this news but all long term shareholders should be delighted because this has been achieved without any dilution of their shareholding

This is not only a statement of intent but also a vote of confidence in what t42 are trying to achieve. A-Labs are extremely proficient at helping companies achieve Unicorn status based on their refreshingly flexible management approach which avoids many of the legacy issues pertaining to more traditional corporate advisors

We now need to see more evidence of this in terms of some material contract gains which will help garnish further support for t42.

As you correctly observe, the relevance and significance of this news doesn't appear to have yet been digested by the market.

The principal shareholder has assumed a debt owed by the company through the transfer of a portion of his shares to the lender in full and final settlement of an outstanding loan thus retaining much needed cash reserves for the company's benefit.

The lender is one of the company's principal advisors and the fact that they're prepared to receive shares, as opposed to cash, at a healthy premium to their current share price, is to be applauded.

This has been achieved without diluting the interests of existing shareholders through a placing of new shares and represents the confidence that the CEO and our advisors have in the future of this company.

This comes on top of the recent announcement from Sateliot of the successful launch of their 4 new low earth obit satellites which will help resolve our previous connectivity issues. Sateliot will now be connecting more than 8Million IoT devices that have contracted for this service.

This is the first step in forming a new constellation which will eventually have close to 100 satellites in orbit and is the first such constellation where terrestrial cellular telecommunications seamlessly merge with satellite connectivity. Furthermore, t42 are actively collaborating in this project and the market has failed to digest the significance of this event which represents the revolution of the 5G NB-IoT NTN standard as Sateliot is presented with the opportunity to transform industries worldwide; regardless of location or infrastructure, connectivity black spots will become a thing of the past.

It is one of the first constellations to implement standard GSMA and 3GPP developments fully on satellites. In addition to providing commercial services, Sateliot aims to use these advancements to continue leading the NTN community in future innovations. Sateliot’s approach, featuring its patented “Store and Forward” technology, offers global connectivity with its new orbital plane.

Additionally, the company said It is designed to support a wide range of use cases for SMEs, public administrations and large enterprises in sectors such as agriculture, livestock, logistics and critical infrastructures.

Attached is a video of the successful launch which can be seen from 1 hour 10 minutes into the video https://bit.ly/4fVkrJK

According to the Companies Act 2014, AGM's are held once every year with no more than 15 months passing between AGM's. There's a legal agreement to send the AGM Notice to all shareholders 21 days in advance, informing them of the date, time, location and, agenda via post or email.

Has any shareholder received this? If not, there's no AGM scheduled for today

Where's the AGM being held? Is it online or maybe it's being held in cyberspace.