Member Info for Nickderby

Starting with a gross profit figure of $285m and taking those figures further... Royalties at 7% would give us a cost of just under $24m. Admin expenses, taking into account the previous year's Vametco accounts should be well covered at $14m. So projecting forward the next 12 months at current FeV prices, current exchange rates and current production, that would give us $247m net profits, around £193m. Our current share (at 59.1%) would be £114m. Our future share (at 70%) would be £135m. Imo, BMN remains a bargain at the current share price/market cap. Then we have the increase to 5,000 tonnes pa, 10,000 tonnes pa, plus everything else. I’m really looking forward to the coming weeks, months and years.

Rand/$ is currently 14.64. Production cost guidance is ZAR205 per kg, giving production costs of $14 per kg. Nitrovan sold to the US is now at around $90 per kg and production is now 3,750 tonnes pa, giving Vametco potential Gross Profits of $285m going forwards. Quite incredible. Our share is currently 59.1%, but after the Sojitz buy out and the new BEE rules could be as high as 70%. Huge amounts of cash are being generated by Vametco! FeV is in a structural supply deficit, demand is increasing further and the FeV price is rising. Profits are going from strength to strength. We have 3 world class vanadium resources. Roll on an FeV price of $100 per kg, it’s definitely coming...

As Largo still has 159.7m warrants and options outstanding and they are all available for exercising, its worth looking at Largo’s fully diluted enterprise value. At a share price of CAD $2.41, this value is £1 billion! Taking into account production, share, product type and margins, I think we should be around 50% of Largo’s valuation. That’s around £500m, 45p per share for starters. That would just catch us up with Largo, who themselves are undervalued. And so much more to come thereafter... BMN, the share that keeps giving :)

@Sippingdownraki. We know the vanadium platform is performing well. Production upgrades to 3,750 tonnes pa have been achieved on target and within budget. We’ve recently had the annual report for 2017 which was signed off on 28th June 2018, where Fortune stated... ‘Vanadium production guidance for the 2018 calendar year remains unchanged at approximately 3,680 mtV. ‘ So we know production is on target. We know the vanadium price is performing well above our wildest dreams. We will have H1 full financial results by the end of September at the latest, which is about 6 weeks away. Cash elephant! :)

@Sippingdownraki. We’ve recently had the annual report for 2017 which was signed off on 28th June 2018, where Fortune stated... ‘Vanadium production guidance for the 2018 calendar year remains unchanged at approximately 3,680 mtV. ‘ So we know production is on target. We will have H1 full financial results by the end of September, which is about 6 weeks away. As Daisan said earlier, the Company may be thinking why even bother with a Q2 production report, it serves little purpose. The full figures will be published before the end of Q3 anyway.

Congratulations Alfa.
Hope you have a great day and an amazing life together :)

Quite the contrary, can only assume that the figures are so good that they are having to check them over and over and reconcile them for the 6 monthlies! ;)

Max buy at 28p is just 30,000 shares.
I can sell plenty.

They certainly want your shares this morning, hold tight! :)

Can't buy any shares at 27.5p.
Time for another tick up :)

Over the last 12 weeks, US FeV has averaged $80.03 per kg.
Q3 is going to be incredible!

Current FeV prices.... China $80 - $85 per kg (10/8). Europe $80 - $82 per kg (10/8). US $85.8 - $87.56 per kg (10/8). Add on our 5% Nitrovan premium and what do you get? Dreamland :) https://www.vanadiumprice.com/european-fev-reduced-but-chinese-fev-export-prices-went-up/

Drifter, you have only used production costs.
I have included all costs at $25 per kg, to include royalties, admin costs and depreciation.

I also (conservatively) didn't add on the 5% Nitrovan premium.

We could certainly be heading beyond £2 sometime during the next 2 years :)

Just for interest. Production 5,000 tonnes. FeV at $75 per kg Costs at $25 per kg (high). Vametco share 70%. PE 25. Share price £2.19. Not incl any dilution from Sojitz acquisition.

Alfa, a PE of 25 would give a share price of around £1.10 at $62 per kg FeV. Although this year FeV looks like averaging well over $70 per kg. (Currently over $80). For example, $72 per kg FeV would give around £1.38. Plus Sojitz? Etc! Bargain :)

BeingPatient, agreed.
Astonishing amounts of cash are being generated at current FeV prices.
In fact, beyond my wildest dreams.

Incredibly, these amounts are going to grow even further with the Chinese rebar regulations causing even higher feV prices in November, production growth, Sojitz, brownfield, Mokopane, Brits, electrolyte, BE etc!

Quite incredible times ahead :)

Nvhltd, I will repeat.

In the annual report for 2017 which was signed off on 28th June, Fortune stated...

'Vanadium production guidance for the 2018 calendar year
remains unchanged at approximately 3,680 mtV. '

I would assume that if there was likely to be a shortfall in Q2 production numbers, he would certainly have known about it by 2 days before the quarter end.

Nvhltd, in the annual report for 2017 which was signed off on 28th June, Fortune stated...

'Vanadium production guidance for the 2018 calendar year
remains unchanged at approximately 3,680 mtV. '

I would assume that if there was likely to be a shortfall in Q2 production numbers, he would have known about it 2 days before the quarter end.

BeingPatient, yes but its's not really an expense is it.

Why make a provision for a unknown future capital acquisition that is based on the 2020 Ebitda figures?
You would be setting up a provision for an asset.
Effectively a debit and credit which would contra out on the balance sheet.
In any case, there's no effect on the financials imo.

It affects the 2020 accounts and even then it is an increase in the cost of our assets via a cash payment (due in 2021).

I don't see it as a matter of great importance atm.

As you say the bigger the payment, the better! :)

Pdub
http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/247647-Project-Boost-120-dpi.pdf

Page 141.

'Acquisition Agreement.
On 30 November 2017, the Company entered into the Acquisition Agreement, pursuant to which it
conditionally agreed to acquire all of the ordinary shares in Bushveld Vametco not currently owned
by the Group from the Seller for a purchase price of:
(i) US$11.1 million to be satisfied on Admission (“Initial Consideration”) by (i) a cash payment
of US$4.5 million and (ii) the issue of the Consideration Shares by the Company to the Seller,
credited as fully paid, at the Consideration Share Price
(ii) two deferred payments of US$600,000 each, payable following publication of the accounts
for Vametco Holdings for respectively the years ending 31 December 2018 and
31 December 2019; and
(iii) a payment to be made on the publication of the accounts for Vametco Holdings for the period
ending on 31 December 2020 (“2020 Accounts”) a sum calculated as follows:
(4.5 x EBITDA as shown in the 2020 Accounts) x 5.91 per cent.'

BeingPatient, purely from an accounting perspective, the 2020 payment to YD will only affect the 2020 accounts.
Accountancy is all about 'the matching principle'.

The Matching Principle states that all expenses must be matched in the same accounting period as the revenues they helped to earn. Therefore any final payment to YD will be accounted for in the 2020 accounts.

The two payments of 600,000 will be included in the 2018 and 2019 accounts.

In any case these payments are deferred payments for the acquisition of an asset and so should not affect the profits for the year. They are a balance sheet item - acquisition of an asset (just a deferred payment thereof).