Member Info for nhawan

It's holding 25p well and ready for a bounce. Now is the time to get back in.

Almost certain this will bounce once the profit takers are done. You have to ask why would the POO drop the day before the OPEC meeting? Maybe because those in the know are manipulating it get in cheap to maximise profit when the deal is announced. The bottom of the range is around 24p-25p according to the charts and that is where to go long.

The glut will disappear quickly as lockdowns are removed over the next few weeks. Wuhan is out of lockdown today and China as a whole will be very soon. Oil will most likely trade around $35-$40 if they cut around 15m which is easily possible since there are 24 member countries in OPEC+.

The expected shake before news. Allows some big players to get in before the opec deal. Just got some for the ride.

It will probably drift to around 25p by close as has happened for the last few days. Day traders usually close positions by close of trading.

https://www.rt.com/business/485046-oil-saudi-russia-trump-tariffs/

Love the way he thinks threatening everyone works. India buckled over the Chlorquine quickly so he thinks it will work with OPEC but I doubt Russia and Saudi will bend over so easily.

Tullow is not worth more than 50p even if oil price was $50 since fundamentals haven't changed since before the crash and COVID. Herd mentality and all that. Good to trade this kind of share. PMO is also risky since POO of $35-$40 for 6 months will put real pressure on them.

I can buy it cheaper than I sold right now dude.
Explain the fundamentals please if you guys don't agree with my evaluation. Enlighten us why this is worth 100p soon and why it was 50p in December.

Tullow was 50p when oil price was at around $60. Now that the oil price has halved to $30, the sp of 25p is essentially half of what Tullow was worth back in Dec. Those claiming this will go up to 100p are simply trying to suck in unwitting pi's. At best the sp may go to 30p if the oil price settles around $35-45$ after the deal but will drop down below 20p once the short term traders sell on news. I suspect many will sellout before the deal takes place to derisk.

The company was worth 50p because of the lowered guidance due to lower than expected output from certain assets. That will not be resolved with the RBL. The RBL will keep the company afloat while the oil price is low but not push the sp higher than what it was worth in December. That can only be resolved if Tullow increases the output of oil.

That's not quite true. The sp dived in Nov/Dec when the company lowered forecasts and said the output from some assets was lower than expected. No amount of RBL facility is going to fix that. The sp was arounbd 50p before COVID and oil price crash so current price is higher than it should be.

Got in first thing and just got out. Could go higher but profit is profit. Fundamentals before covid haven't changed so looks overbought.

He got some upvotes though. These rampers agree with him and believe shorters are pushing the price up lol.
Let's see what the shorters do tomorrow then.

The cause of the fall in Nov/Dec last year was to do with lower than expected output and lower guidance. None of that can be fixed by RBL or asset sales.

From what I have read it was the lower than expected oil output from various sites which caused the drop from over 150p to 50p. That cannot be resolved by the OPEC deal. Some appear to be giving the impression it will magically shoot up to 100p again if POO went up.

Tullow was trading at around 55p back in January while the POO was at $60. I expect the sp will only get to around 30p if there is a deal and the POO recovers to $40. Can anyone explain why they think it will recover to 100p or higher in 6 months when it was actually trading half of that before the COVID and oil price issues?

are you sure about that? I suspect all those traders who bought at sub-10p will be selling first thing to crystallize their gains. Or are they gonna watch their gains diminish back to near 0%?

What do you mean no one can cope? Only the US companies would struggle but OPEC countries can manage at $30 since their costs are less than $10. They just have to reduce reliance on oil income. For consumers it's far better to have low oil prices than high. Industries would have significantly reduced costs if oil was low.

The saudis are playing a game here. To delay pricing means they are going to price lower than everyone else no matter what the outcome. Only way to win marketshare.

It;s not just about the delayed meeting. Trump did not even talk about cuts in his meeting with US oil execs. I think the market will be disappointed with that.

PDMS, Does you analysis make any sense?
While Russia and Saudi are saying they are prepared to make cuts if the US takes part, do you think it is a sensible negotiation tactic for the US to say they are not discussing cuts, especially when it is the US companies who are going to suffer if talks fail?