Member Info for NewKOTB

Sale time at SQZ.

We are now 30% off our SP of only 6 weeks ago.

"We have a licence from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control,
known as OFAC, that enables us to maintain Rhum operations. As part of the process to
obtain the licence a robust and secure legal structure, which has removed any Iranian interest,
financial or decision making, from the Rhum field for the duration of US imposed sanctions on
Iran, has been put in place. The licence was granted for one year which expires at the end
of October so we are now in the process of submitting an application to renew. We do so at
a time when US/Iranian relations have deteriorated even further but, due to the ownership
structure which has been put in place, ensuring no Iranian involvement, either financially or
operationally in the Rhum field whilst US sanctions prevail, we believe that we continue to
meet OFAC requirements. ...."

Upomega,

" serica haven't helped matters by pushing ahead with rhum3..."

Quite the opposite, it clearly shows that licence renewal is fully expected. Why would SQZ jeopardise their Rhum production, and in turn the future of the company without having a water tight agreement in place. Work on R3 is not cheap either, so once again why throw money away on a project that is a non-starter.

Think about it ....

And yes, unless we balance our production with another asset or two, Rhum renewal will always provide a trading opportunity.

Also Gold is doing worryingly well over the past few months atm, not a good sign in general in my book !!

What is Trump about to do ?

Need to close above 106.4p today otherwise I have no idea where she is going.

Very week RSI (29.3) so moving into significantly oversold territory imo.

Looking probable, an attempt at sub 100p with strong bounce is on the card

aimo

He/she ..... "heshe", works for a pro trading desk imo so will only post on BB they are told too, as such should be barred from posting according to LSE T&C's

Had their fun on TCG and now on SXX atm

"At this level 1.40 is more realistic ..."

Not a chance that a bid of 140p would ever succeed, not even close, would need opening offer of +160p to stir any sort of interest with circa 200p to been seen as a more serious offer imo.

Once November is upon us, renewed licence , R3 due online 2020 and an additional +20% increase in our BKR PSA from 1/1/2020, you will need to be looking at +200p easily imo (this clearly excluded any further accreditive acquisitions)

JAdam,

" 68 million boe and infrastructure comes free...."

Yep, atm at sub 100p less cash on hand and tax pool we arrive at approx $0.91 per barrel for our +60mmboe.

NS deals have been done for circa $10.00 / barrel ..... we are in serious T/O territory imo

Dollar vs Pound gives approximately 20% more buying power compared to 4 months ago.

Don't forget the exchange rate for our production. Sold in US$ and converted to British pound is at it's most advantageous rate for years.

A weakened British pound caused by the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union has thrown a lifeline to a group of businesses on the brink—small oil companies plying the North Sea.

The fall of the British pound to a 31-year low after the June 23 referendum has lowered labor, equipment and engineering costs for companies that have major operations in Scotland, the main base for North-Sea outfits. These companies sell oil in dollars but pay employees and the majority of their costs in the weakened British currency.

Yet another reason to snap up companies akin to SQZ .

Also, this clearly makes a value opportunity for an acquirer using US$ especially if a NO DEAL brexit becomes a reality.

Still think that Tailwind should not be disregarded as an opportunistic suitor.

aimo

AUGUST 2, 2019
"This year started with a flurry of takeover activity in the UK small-cap oil and gas sector and recent interest in London-listed Amerisur Resources suggests the trend is continuing.
In January, Faroe Petroleum, whose assets were focused on the Norwegian North Sea, succumbed to a £640m takeover from DNO of Norway.
That was quickly followed by a £408m deal for south-east Asia-focused Ophir Energy by Indonesia’s Medco Energi. 
The target companies shared little in common when it came to their assets. Instead, opportunism has been the defining theme, according to Stephane Foucaud, analyst at GMP FirstEnergy.
With oil prices relatively “solid”, so-called independent oil companies are generating decent levels of cash.
There are, therefore, “a lot of bargain deals to be made”, particularly as acquirers can fund bids largely with debt and the target company’s cash.
https://www.ft.com/content/50cf2f6e-b439-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b

"particularly as acquirers can fund bids largely with debt and the target company’s cash...." that is exactly where SQZ sit atm ( with >$10m per month free cash flow & $125m CoH ) as a self-funding acquisition for anyone that wants her imo

"This is not good.unless they come up with a deal soon this will not stay independent for long ..."

SQZ on that view should be considered a buy atm imo, as you are correct a T/O could come at anytime. Although should anyone have eyes for SQZ the deal would need to be wound up well before 31/10/19, otherwise the window of opportunity will swiftly close.
So given the AIM rules and regulations an approach would need to be within the week or two to enable any chance of it being successful at a bargain basement price. For me that would need to be +160p

Our BoD are astute enough to know the 'games' that maybe being played out here !! So any approach would need their backing.

fwiw, don't think RRE will stand any chance of taking over SQZ.

aimo.

I had to mention "stranger things", right on cue ....

Same old rubbish .... here we go again no doubt !!

"Stranger Things" trading wise today so far !!

Single 'A' trade of 5 shares on ask of 112p, to counter no doubt the UT the bid of 106.8p directly before !

With money moving into SQZ ready for major re-rate.

Tomorrow will be crucial indicator imo

Deal for BP’s share of Shearwater could imo be wound up very quickly. No where as complicated as BKR. No Iranian or operatorship to worry about, T&C’s would be based on BKR. Would add c17kboepd plus reserves

Too much SP action for there not to be imo

Should put some umph behind the SP on Monday ... should be taken out at all time high c 900p imo

What's also imminent is R3 re-entry program scheduled and able to commence on Thursday ... hopefully an RNS to state as such.

Now R3 coming on-line and another deal ...... luscious!!!

gla