RE: Next up Serica...8 Apr 2020 13:17
sasa,
Always appreciate your expert eye and views
From my point of view, think we would be hard pushed to get much above 180p, in fact if I were to put money on it ( which I have btw) its 49/51 in my view on either merger or straight takeover.
The t/o has the edge, but only just, solely due to AA as you mentioned retaining 'control' and hence major influence on the final destination of RRE in a few years and AA cashing in.
An cash/equity offer may be the best way forward for AA. 140p cash offer plus a 50:1 equity.( still leave AA with ~22% of voting equity) Just so SQZ holders still have some upside from the deal. Sum of deal worth circa 158p.
Many, including me would cash out on that deal.
From a merger angle, don't see how AA could retain anything near his 30% equity .... but he's a numbers man and eye for a deal, so I'm sure he's calculated the optimum approach and end game.
Have thought and expressed so many times here my preference for a merger, but it's AA shot, black ball middle pocket !!!
Should the OPEC / G20 go well on Thursday / Friday, we could be waking up Tuesday to the beginning of a new era or the end of an old one. That is unless the timing and agreement reached of OPEC concluding allows for an RNS after close on tomorrow.
Could be 'Game over'.
atb & imo