Member Info for NewKOTB

2017 BKR deal announced, 2018 was when this, our last deal was completed ... since then our SP has totally stagnated (outside of Covid fall and recovery), regardless of our cash build, clearing all debt and adding 50% of attributable revenue, soon to be 120% in ~9 months. We also added to our 2P reserves upgrade too ..... there is only so long the market will allow for past success.

On 2/11/2018, completion of the BKR deal we closed at 116p, today's SP 116p ...... do I need to add more. Shareholders certainly deserve more.

aimo

"Kistos will also issue warrants over EUR 5 million of ordinary shares at a premium of 30% to the price of any equity placing.."

So you know there is only one way KIST SP is going .... AA STRIKES AGAIN !!! whilst our BoD put their slippers on and cover their knees with a nice fluffy, warming blanket and settle down in front of the fire for another year.

Deals are being done thick and fast ..... come on ACW et al (esp Kiosk Kate) you have had plenty of time to get a reasonable deal over the line .... there have been plenty out there, as the last few months have proven.

Either sell up (+220p) or complete a mega deal .... but shareholders need something.

aimo

As a producer with no debt and significant CoH, you would reasonably expect our SP to increase given the continued strength and recovery of Brent (+$69) and gas (+45p/therm) ...... but no, yet others manage to !!

Getting tired of continually adding on weakness now, just want these games over with .... are you listening ACW et al.

aimo

Think you just need to look back at 2020 as annus horribilis ..... almost literally (lol)

Covid aside, 45 day platform outage ( circa 12% annualized lost production) and associated repair costs, record low WTI leading to extremely weak Brent, BNP gas on the floor too at 8p/therm, yet SQZ still manage to have NO debt.

From Corporate Update Jan 2021:
FY 2020 average market gas price** was ~ 25p/th and average market oil price was ~$42/bbl equating to a price of ~ $20/boe (before the benefit of hedging)
By comparison average prices in January 2021 have been ~60p/th and ~$55/bbl equating to a price of ~$43/boe (again before hedging)
We spent £29m alone in H2 2020 on CapEx and Dividend ......

Even with R3 and associated extension costs (est £12m) plus Columbus (est £17m) and one would hope another dividend (est £10m) in 2021, cash build will continue imo.

aimo

ps What is it with this site today ....

Think you just need to look back at 2020 as annus horribilis ..... almost literally (lol)

Covid aside, 45 day platform outage ( circa 12% annualized lost production) and associated repair costs, record low WTI leading to extremely weak Brent, BNP gas on the floor too at 8p/therm, yet SQZ still manage to have NO debt.

From Corporate Update Jan 2021:
FY 2020 average market gas price** was ~ 25p/th and average market oil price was ~$42/bbl equating to a price of ~ $20/boe (before the benefit of hedging)
By comparison average prices in January 2021 have been ~60p/th and ~$55/bbl equating to a price of ~$43/boe (again before hedging)
We spent £29m alone in H2 2020 on CapEx and Dividend ......

Even with R3 and associated extension costs (est £12m) plus Columbus (est £17m) and one would hope another dividend (est £10m) in 2021, cash build will continue imo.

aimo

At today's gas/brent, inc hedges, SQZ post Opex are receiving ~$5.76m per week on 27kboepd, with unit revenue of ~$30.51/boe ..... on 35kboepd, moves swiftly up to ~$7.47m p/w, or ~$388m pa post Opex.

Cash Cow ..... https://s3.amazonaws.com/lowres.cartoonstock.com/business-commerce-cash_cow-bull_market-invest-investor-investing-aba0232_low.jpg

ps Re-posted as site is being temperamental once more ..

At today's gas/brent, inc hedges, SQZ post Opex are receiving ~$5.76m per week on 27kboepd, with unit revenue of ~$30.51/boe ..... on 35kboepd, moves swiftly up to ~$7.47m p/w, or ~$388m pa post Opex.

Cash Cow ..... https://s3.amazonaws.com/lowres.cartoonstock.com/business-commerce-cash_cow-bull_market-invest-investor-investing-aba0232_low.jpg

Strange coincidence that directly after the Neo / Zennor deal was announced this week, our SP started moving south after being static for weeks.
Never mind, yet another opportunity presents itself to add a little more ..... soon be overtaking Mommur at this rate. :-)

p18 .... " new 7 inch tubing "

https://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/presentations/Corporate-Update-Jan-21.pdf

As I have mentioned before R3 is the skeleton key to unlock value here afaic..... one way or another. ;-)

aimo

Yes Maverick, NS deals are coming thick and fast atm .... ;-)

Hope AT has not fallen ill with Covid ..... Although if he's still in Dubai, probably best place to be ....

Fingers crossed all is well atm ..

Has the point of no return been reached for SQZ to acquire a real bargain ..... I think that may be so.

Our relationship with BP may still prove fruitful, but as you mention Paul, the driving need to obtain an absolute bargain has to give way to the resurgence of the sector. Recent NS M&A have been around the $13/barrel, so an outright acquisition outside of a BKR style transaction limits SQZ greatly .... we either take on debt and/or increase equity.

We are both aware of the wolves that surround us ..... none more so than Viaro.

aimo.

Oh, forgot to add Remus to the list of Neo, Enquest, Kistos, Tailwind, Viaro to name a few actively looking to expand their NS portfolio.

Upomega,

"Surely newkotb any approach should have been intimated via an rns.... "

No, not at all ....... until the deal is done or someone goes hostile, until then, NDA's will no doubt be in place. Also, don't forget that if our board think any approach materially undervalues SQZ there is not legal requirement to inform the market.

For sure NS M&A has truly kicked off ..... imo, watch this space for more.

aimo & atb

So we have .... Neo, Enquest, Kistos, Tailwind, Viaro to name a few actively looking to expand their NS portfolio.

I would find it inconceivable that SQZ have not been approached given what we have to offer esp come 2022. Add-in the perfect control of our SP and you have the makings of a great story for ACW autobiography... " The Life & Times of a Hydrocarbon Addict" ....

aimo

Also, Zennor only have 40mmboe of net 2P reserves too .... so £450m is imo an excellent deal for Zennor.

Now if SQZ could pull off a deal on similar grounds, it has to value us at least upward of >£600m, 224p/s which is not far off quoted fair value price of ~217p .

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/serica-energy-plc-lon-sqz-053151148.html

What this does show is UKCS assets are wanted and at a fair price atm.

aimo

Yep,

Interesting that £450m got 5kboepd production, taking Neo to ~85kboepd and are known to be targeting ~120kboepd this year, SQZ's production would allow Neo to easily hit that target...... hummmm !!

Yep, 'spudding', reference to drilling and hopefully completion of the Columbus development well scheduled by end of Q1/21 with production due Q4 once Shearwater Tie-in and is Arran online.

As for R2, need to wait and see if there is an issue ( I'm not aware of one ) and if its material to ongoing production, would possibly require an RNS .... That said, R3 would cancel out R2.

aimo

We don't have sufficient information as to the issue ( if there is one) to determine course of action.

SQZ will need to issue an RNS if its not a 'simple' fix.

Just highlights the need to diversify our production base.... something that is way, way overdue.

aimo