Member Info for NewKOTB

Answer this :

Will Mercuira worry about a low SP, ie sub 278p
Will Mercuira want to extract cash from SQZ to the max via dividends
Will Mercuria want to replicate the Tailwind business model
Will Mercuria give a flying fish about PI's
Will Mercuria take ultimate control of Serica

For me, NO, YES, YES, NO and absolute YES

AIMO & DYOR

Should of added from deal announcement date 20/12/22 to register analysis cut-off date of 31 December 2022 we only had ~7 working days with Xmas and NY holidays it would of been difficult to imagine many portfolio mgr's making many major changes until circular / presentation / return to work in NY. With only ~20m shares traded during that period would back this assumption up, with relatively low trading so far this year too imo.
As BB and I have mentioned before, results of the vote, however that may play out, will be interesting as to the degree of acceptance / rejection.

aimo & dyor

aimo & dyor

See SERICA's holdings page has finally been updated, first time since Oct 31st 2022 :

Mr D and Mrs D Hardy* 29,319,511 10.74 (added from 10.57)
BlackRock** 17,082,136 6.26 (added from 5.45)
JPMorgan Asset Management 13,578,657 4.97 (reduced from 5.08)
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers 13,169,887 4.82 (added from 4.63)
abrdn 12,986,673 4.76 (reduced from 4.97)
AXA Framlington*** 12,706,327 4.66 (added from 4.6)
Interactive Investor 10,518,541 3.85 (added from 3.64)
Janus Henderson Investors 9,707,677 3.56 (added from 3.52)
Directors 7,639,854 2.80 (added from 2.79)

Goldman Sachs 8,380,468 3.07 (No longer listed <3.0% reporting threshold)

Information correct as at register analysis cut-off date of 31 December 2022 except where TR-1 notifications are made subsequent to that date.

As at 13 January 2023, the Company had 272,953,372 ordinary shares in issue of which 13.54% is not held in public hands.

7 Added, 2 reduced, 1 below 3%, interesting, not massive movement, largest by BlackRock adding 0.81%

One can assume that either the II back this deal, although I would have thought some may of added more if they were keen on it or they are waiting for a higher SP exit point which no doubt be driven by them. Either way no real negative news as far as holdings reported .... as I stated, very interesting.

https://www.serica-energy.com/shareholder-information

aimo & dyor

infor,

"It begs the question, could the SP been manipulated in the lead up to the announcement?..."

You really need to ask that !!

Of course it was, one of the benefits listing on less regulated AIM market, no surprise that Mercuria stated that Serica MUST remain on AIM as part of the deal.

aimo & dyor

With First Year of 100% BKR completed (2022) we have what is in effect a reverse takeover thrust upon us ! So all the hard work and patience has come to this, giving away 40% of the spoils of serious graft by SQZ employees just for Mercuria to now fully benefit from ..... so wrong in so many ways !

aimo & dyor

NQM,

"Better to hold the cash for a more favourable deal, or, if all else fails, return it to shareholders...."

Exactly, even with averaging NBP 120p Brent $80 post WFT / OPEX /Hedging etc etc on 26kboepd SQZ would clear ~£151m PA post tax profit..... Even returning £100m of that would give dividend of ~ 37p/s PA. That's not taking into account the cash hoard and tax losses from last years expenditure leaving cash and equivalents of £540m for YE 2022. So pressure would be on to use at very least 30% of CoH for special dividend, ie ~65p/s, so would expect total dividend return for 2023 of >100p/s.
However now we want to give most of that away on an overpriced deal and subsequently dilute any dividend to the tune of 40% in favour of Mercuria et al.

Vote NO !!

aimo & dyor

could easily equal 6% on the day > could easily equal power of 6% on the day.

Quite conceivable that PIs' on this board alone could muster ~ 3% of voting share capital, with low turnout that could easily equal 6% on the day ..... so make sure you all vote, which ever-way you swing !!!

atb

To be clear each 'vote' = 1 share

chinch,

"it would need at least 136.5m to pass? If this is correct.."

Wrong I'm afraid ... like you many think the same. This 'vote' will ONLY require >50% of ACTUAL votes CAST for it to pass, hence why even small holdings can have an inflated effect on the result and why the Hardy's will be so influential to the outcome. If, e.g 50m votes cast on the day, you would need 25m +1, YES's to pass the vote.
Votes and resolutions for that matter are all on the votes cast NOT on amount of share capital issued ..... we all need to vote, every little, in this case, really does help.

aimo & dyor

Lets try and exit this shallow down channel next week for good ..... ;-)

aimo & dyor

Upomega,

"but did you notice the final few trades of the day yesterday..."

Yep, I did, also occurred on 10th too, even more so ..... !!! weird

atb

RaggsP,

Correct, you can live chat Halifax, I got Zara on all occasions ( not sure if AI or not, lol ) Once you confirm your details, name, email, telephone and account code they will issue you with reference number, as you mentioned, was relatively easy to cast my vote.
They could also send out paper vote but given strikes and only 9 and bit working days best to do it via chat imo.

Voted for my family : NO

aimo & dyor

SP trying hard to break through the down channel...... close today and Monday will be telling on how the market is now viewing this deal. Few weeks back after Xmas break for all large players to get their head around it and SQZ (Mitch's) presentation / view on the deal.

aimo & dyor

With luck, Raper Capital will contract other holders and try to gain the 5% needed to call an EGM putting a resolution to oust the Board or very least one or two. This deal is far from a done deal ! Will pressure build so much that Mitch will either call the deal off or re-negotiate on much better terms !

aimo & dyor

Velo,

"the market has shown no mercy for the company coming in virtually on guidance despite a smidgen downward adjustment...."

Agree, it has always been the case majority of trading results / updates have been met with a 'managed' decline of our SP regardless of how good they have been, with only half decent response being October 21. Eventually the tide will go out and those with shorts may find a few crustaceans firmly clamped to their dingle dangles !!

aimo & dyor

chinch,

Would think the Hardy's as largest holder by far in Serica WILL be going through this deal with the finest of fine tooth combs. It's far from given that David and Debbie will vote for this deal, regardless of what may of been 'offered' to them for their vote. Lets hope for all the little guys their vote fall on the side of common sense.

aimo & dyor

DTP,

Maybe use of 'sold this to' should be replaced by 'hoodwinked'.

As posted earlier Mercuria et al will consume 28.9% of available dividends, so expect dividends to be favourable, but at the expense of SP of course, as such, I'm far from convinced SP appreciation will occur to any meaningful level.

aimo & dyor

Remember, TB still have $24bn fighting funds at hand and ready to go .... cash was raised last month to the tune of $32bn with an immediate $8bn transaction completed ....

TB are an aggressive company when it comes to doing deals :

https://www.thomabravo.com/press-releases

Ask yourself this, why go to the trouble of raising such vast amounts of funding if you are not intending to deploy it, just saying !!!

"Yep, but I wouldn’t mind betting someone else will..."

You also need to consider TB wanting to 'lock-up' the market ... even if DARK may not be high on their hit list ( which btw I think they are ) TB wouldn't want a competitor taking the company over either.