Member Info for newboytim

I hadn't heard of these until recently but the more I look the more I like the look of fox. Not without risk of course due to the region they operate out of but feels like a decent risk reward ratio considering they are now starting to translate the hard work into sales with orders building. Looking forward to results in March if they can grab some more sales beforehand. Should see a clearer picture of 2014 prospects. Brief overview below http://timpronkster.blogspot.com/2014/02/2014-stock-picks-group-4-small-cap-non.html

You might like this..... Good luck http://seekingalpha.com/article/1762872-salamander-energy-a-multi-bagger-producer-waiting-its-turn-in-a-show-me-market?source=google_news

IMO because there is no activity happening until well into 2014 at the earliest. So why buy now? Which is exactly why I will be buying a little more in the coming months and tucking them away for 18 months. 1 discovery on their propects and this will be a multi bagger IMO. No ramp, could be a long wait, but to me this company has always felt like the next Encore, and I always wanted to be in a E&P with good prospects and good cash flow at 10p and see it rise. GL all.

that todays cash balance is only to the end of June - so there's another almost 3 months to add to that at c£1.5m so another £4.5m to add :) Solid reading. One for 2014 and into 2015 for me Tim

Fair point but I can't see anyone paying anything like going rate for assets during a period of turmoil when the objective is known to be to just recover as much value as possible by splitting the company up. Imagine announcing an urgent house and contents sale and then expecting to get anything like full value for the assets. Oversimplified yes but I suspect we'd get something like today's share price which they'd announce as a 100% premium to the day before they started this. Whoopee doooo. What do you make the nav to be? Can't be much for goodwill, or ideas in development. Which is pretty much why the share price is where it is, a little more than cash IMO. Good luck though.

Small pi and not sure why I would vote for the proposals. How will a fire sale raise more than £7m current mcap? This co needs to be valued at nearer £25m to cover my losses and I can't see any way a "strategic review" will achieve that. I'm thinking of voting against and leaving the investment for another 2 years!! Agree the comms has been pitiful though. Not good enough.

Cornhill Sees Better Deal for Lochard on Sustained Athena Output By Benjamin Dow June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Potential buyers of Lochard Energy are “watching the situation” at Athena field, Cornhill Capital’s Adam Dziubinski says in interview; sees “stronger negotiating position” for Lochard in 3-6 months, barring major issues at Athena. • Says potential buyers attributing “little or no value” to Lochard’s assets ex-10% stake in Athena; says not a catastrophe if co. loses exploration licenses • Notes that, “in fact, it might be easier to sell or merge the company as a cleaner entity” • Sees “major well flow issue” at Athena as biggest risk for Lochard in next 2-3 months; normal production means co. can cover its 10% working interest • Creditor Gemini Oil & Gas Fund II showed “vote of confidence” in Athena when refusing “reasonable commercial terms” for early repayment; current claim to Lochard’s share of revenue may last ~2 years: Cornhill’s Dziubinski NOTES: • Group of Lochard shareholders led by Cornhill has enough support to block Parkmead’s all-share bid; general meeting & court meeting to be held in early July • Lochard trading at biggest discount to value of Parkmead bid since offer

interesting work thanks. Worth considering is that TRAP are the only ones being cautious around what athena may contain. They based their figures on 14.5m barrels. But IAE and LHD both say much higher, I think somewhere around 22m barrels (this is off the top of my head and I can't remember exactly nor check at the moment) So LHD's 10% of reserves, minus the 3.5m already recovered would be nearer to 1.8m barrels, an increase of 700k on your calcs. And with water cut not yet apparent, and resevoir producing well, it looks likely that TRAP have been overcautious or just very prudent. Highlights the value inherent in TRAP as they have no debt, other prospects, cash flow and RBL (and yes I am in them too so obviously biased, but an updated CRP for Athena could show TRAp well undervalued.)

Commerciante chuckle chuckle ..... a fire sale. LOL. And the comment that there will be nothing left to sell is genius. There will be a fantastic producing asset left to sell providing Lochard around $2-3m per month. This will quickly clear all remaining debts and with no other commitments and presuming all other licenses are lost (which is not a foregone conclusion) then there will also be virtually no other costs, other than servicing Athena operations and paying their share of future development (which is only 10%) So what will happen if the offer fails? IMO the share price will take a hit, brave peeps will buy at under 4p, and the share price will then recover over the coming year to I would suggest around 6p (c£18m mcap) as we are then valued on cash and Athena, and no longer have unreasonable debt around our necks. Buyers will then need to stump up fairer value to purchase LHD. In saying the above I don't mean to underplay the awful deal the previous management got, that there are not risks inherent in only having Athena (as the RNS from LHD point out) or that PMG wouldn't love to get their grubby hands on this asset. BUT, there are games playing out here and PI's need to think about what they want on a risk / reward basis. If that's a sale now at a cheap price, then fair enough. But no one should be listening to people tell them that the deal is fair value or that LHD haven't paid a massive amount of debt off over the past year on the back of stable, strong cash flows from an asset which looks like it will be producing for many more years and hasn't even seen water cut yet and still produces dry oil.

Yes we have also paid the 9m synergy claim back this past year. As well as 14m Gemini and shortly 1m Henderson loan. As well as cut admin costs, sax listing costs, and brought in a joint partner for the remaining licenses. More I read the more I'm certain the bod have sold us down the river. Well they haven't but they're trying to...... Senergy settlement The final instalment of the $9 million settlement was paid to Senergy at the end of February 2013. Athena related loan In the period from the commencement of production at Athena until 28 February 2013, some $10.5 million of the $28 million total Athena related debt has been repaid at the rate of 50 per cent of gross production revenues. $17.5 million remains outstanding of which $3.5 million is to be repaid at the rate of 50 per cent of gross production revenues and $14 million at the rate of 20 per cent of gross production revenues. This loan is non-recourse and is only payable if production from Athena continues. Commercially therefore it can be regarded as a production cost, net of which Lochard receives its income. The rate of repayment is expected to fall to 20 per cent of gross revenues from May 2013. Henderson facility To date some £1.1 million of the Henderson facility has been drawn. It is expected this will be repaid before the end of the Group's financial year in June 2013.

It says all I need to know about wether the offer for LHD is "fair" or not by looking at the number of pmg holders who have posted on here telling us what a great deal this is and how if we don't accept it LHD are lost. Smells of fear that they need this deal at this price and that they know its a utter undervalued bargain. Remember LHD have paid back 14m already during the worst phase where they also had to settle the synergy claim which from memory was 9m also. They, the bod, have listed all the risks and failed to mention the upside or cash now coming in. They are in bed with hendersons and have a conflict going on IMO. What they also fail to mention is that they only have a 10% working interest and therefore whatever they need to spend on Athena they only cover 10% of this cost. So if they spend another 15m drilling another well (unlikely to be this high) it is still only a 1.5m net cost to them. Granted there is a risk if Athena stops pumping altogether but this is only a risk if it happens in the very short term. Another 6 months and LHD will have cash in the bank to see them through. And it's very low likelihood and something I'm prepared to risk. IMO this is not a good deal. I don't care if they lose the other licences. The bod should be finding a way through to better shareholder returns, not selling out at the cheapest price because they are clearly either desperate to move on or under pressure from hendersons. Interesting cornhill activity. Lets see how this plays out. All the best for a better offer.

several PMG holders are coming on here telling us LHD holders that we're a lost cause unless we accept their stupid cheap offer. Think you'll have to up the offer Mr Cross. Now off you go back to your overvalued PMG board and come back when you can get at least 6p cash together. thanks

death by a thousand cuts, or days. Anyone got any news here?

Sorry what do you mean 488? Cheers

Value will return at some point to AIM oilies that have good cash generation, no debt, good prospects, and no reason to go to market to tap for funds. We've all seen companies where you know at one point people had the chance to buy at 10p when later (maybe years later) they are trading in the pounds. This is one of those in my opinion. Putting my money where my mouth is I've bought a few more this morning, and will happily tuck them away for a year or two, happy(ish) that they may well drop further over the summer, but hey that's the chance you take. good fundamentals here and plenty of upside over the future. We only need a bit of luck at some point on one of our prospects (or less luck more skill on one of our many appraisals) Good luck all. Keep the faith. (and patience)..... :)

personally I'm expecting a mixed update. Hope I'm wrong but the extended delay and the sell off and drip down would suggest to me that we won't get a stonking outcome yet. But happy to be wrong and at this level of M Cap under £2m it's a good price IMO. Fingers crossed.....

Anyone got any idea what was going on today here?

Fully funded for 2013 anyway with cash coming in from Athena. The £9m figure is end of December so it's 3 months better since then. Nice position to be in, in these markets. Results are solid in my opinion - to the point, they don't ramp themselves up, say it how they see it, plenty of things to provide upside. If a result on current drill then big upside, if not share price will bump along no doubt in this market but what an investment for the future - 2 or 3 years we could be looking at a vastly bigger market cap. My plan here is to slowly build a sizeable positiion (for me) so happy if it rises, happy if it bumps along as this feels like a future mid cap in the making. Good luck all, have a good easter

Cash Resources, Acquisitions and Capital Expenditure As at 31 December 2012, the Group held cash resources of approximately £9.3m and is fully funded to execute its current committed capital expenditure programme. It is anticipated that the Group will complete three wells in 2013, Romeo (commenced in late 2012), Scotney (Licence P.1658, Block 20/5b) and Magnolia (Licence P.1610, Block 13/23a). The Group will incur no capital costs for these particular wells, with expenditure being met by our partners through carry agreements. At present, the Group is anticipating 2013 capital expenditure before any acquisitions of up to £5m. This is principally preparatory work ahead of drilling, seismic and other technical work to mature a number of our existing prospects for drilling in 2014. There is no capital expenditure budgeted or anticipated on the Athena field. During the year, the Group completed the acquisition of a 15 per cent. working interest in the producing Athena asset for an effective net cost of approximately £21.8m. We anticipate that this asset will be a strong source of cashflow for the Group and it is believed that the deal will achieve payback in approximately one year. The acquisition of the interest in Athena also provides tax synergy for our investment programme. Based on current projections, tax payable on our income from the Athena asset will be low or zero due to offsetting tax losses and the Group's continuing projected investment.

Was reading and calculating the same this morning - indeed this is fabulous news if it plays out to be an updgrade for TRAP's share of 2P - but based on IAE's statement and performance to date - why wouldn't it? Strong value underpinned here IMO. End of year results awaited...... :)