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So lots of PANR PR over weekend + OPEC and G20 deal could make Tuesday interesting.

Let’s see what happens when markets open...

Interesting GG,

Seems like either our PR machine has kicked in or the press have independently picked up on the news.

Either way it’s good for us. There’s been some chunky buying of late including £150k on Wednesday I think.

Fingers crossed a positive OPEC+ outcome and a Brent price back to $40+ and this exposure could help move us up again.

Just need to resolve the Mexican standoff!!

More press...

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/04/09/business/bc-us-oil-discovery-alaska.html?searchResultPosition=2

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/oil-exploration-firm-huge-alaska-deposit-discovered.amp?__twitter_impression=true

Not sure that’s what he was saying. It’s a volume ratio.

Assuming he meant 10-20k barrels per million cubic feet, then if we get into bcf it could get interesting. Port Thompson is 8tcf

Just scanned the board, but there is no mention or discussion on one of the more interesting points mentioned by Dave at the AGM this morning.

On the subject of the hydrocarbons discovered in the Torok, and the condensate volumes, he mentioned that "indicative range" for gas:liquid ratio was "10k-20k barrels per mcf". Not sure if he meant mmcf as 1 oil barrel is 5.6 cubic feet which doesn't make sense.

Anyways, we should be confirming this ratio in the coming weeks, as well as calculating I guess how many mcf we have.

This analysis will be key. If anybody thinks I've misunderstood - please shout.

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/Locations/United-States/Alaska/ExxonMobil-Point-Thomson-reservoir

Interesting - 8tcf giving 200m barrels

Agreed Jiddy

It clearly states there is enough cash to cover the company costs for the year.

“Net of JV cash, 88E has A$8.9m in cash and has expected total outgoings for the remainder of the year of A$7.0m (including both operating and investing cashflows), which are more than covered by the current net cash position.“

Tough day yesterday folks, there's no hiding from the reality that the drill did not give us what we all hoped it would, especially given the confidence expressed regarding the Torok from 88 and PMO. But this is oil exploration, if it was risk free it would simply be called oil extraction.

Reflecting on what next and what the new level of risk is for my 88e investment, here are my thoughts and open questions that at the moment there are no answers for:
1) The previous Western acreage conventional resource estimate needs to be reconsidered (WI for our JV back to 100%, but the 7 targets now need to be re-evaluated given the latest data)
2) Condensate - how big is the reservoir? Is it commercially viable? What is required to understand the commercial viability? Another drill? In a year's time? How capital intensive?
3) HRZ - What will the cores tell us? Game still on? Or looking less likely...?
4) Progress and plan for Yukon? Sounds like Jade energy are moving forwards on adjacent leases and Armstrong acquisitions made around us as well. Apparently conversations with adjacent leaseholders are underway..
5) We still have unexplored Central and Eastern acreage (2/3rds of our acreage) - We know on the Central acreage just North of us Pantheon have declared a significant discovery in Talitha 1.8bn barrels OIP from 1 zone of 3. Any read across for 88? We need to run 3D seismic over the acreage, which was going to be funded by PMO in exchange for 50% WI and $15m. If we have no partner, we're going to have to find the cash ourselves, which I think from memory cost us about $7m for the Western Fairway. So say double that for twice the acreage? Dave intimated at the globe that the next 3D would be over the Eastern Fairway if I recall correctly. Looking at the IW1 data - shows some interesting data about conventional prospectivity...
6) Tax credits - we have about $19m owed, when will we get it? Is this at risk? Is the current global economic situation with oil supply glut and low pricing going to impact us? Less Royalties for the Alaska, less ability to pay us?
7) what will happen at OPEC and G20 tomorrow and Friday? Can we get oil prices back up? Won't hit us directly as we are years away from producing. But will impact the available capex of companies to invest in any farmout.

Finally for the Dave bashers, the conspiracy theorists and for those who thought this was like putting money in a high interest return account with guaranteed payout of 1000% - the data we have indicated there was a good chance of success. The reason we have the acreage, ran the seismic and have the data and that we got a strong partner involved was because of Dave's leadership. If PMOs interpretation of the data was that there was oil worthy of a $23m investment, then I hardly think folk can berate 88e. PMO have drilled a number of successful wells and have made some serious money.

I realise the above is really a set of questions, but this is what I'm hoping I can ge

Slide 8 particularly relevant for 88e. Talitha prospect runs right up to the edge of our acreage.

Theta West - wow

https://www.petroleumnews.com/pdfarch/299762480.pdf#page=1

Page 2

Hope you’re all keeping well

So with Charlie at 1100m (3600ft) based on the chart in the ANN, and looking at the Winx 1 drilling schedule as a guide on slide 15 in the below deck, we could be hitting Charlie and Indigo in 9-10 days time. Eeek. Have I read the chart right?

http://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02070754.pdf

Here we go. Good luck everybody.

"Net cost to 88 Energy circa. US$30m over 2 years – minimal dilution (est. <4%) with maximum returns for shareholders"

Interesting nod to estimated share price upon success: 4% >= $30m would suggest a market cap of approx. $750m or GBP579m+

Apologies - I meant £250m this year (still living in 2019)

Clifey,

PET has risen from £3m MCAP to approx £30m MCAP, we are currently a £93m mcap company so a different ball game.

At 10p, the MCAP here would be £690m, making 88e 27th largest O&G co on the LSE by Market Cap.

To put a £690m mcap in perspective:
RRE: £247m MCAP, -£32m EV, 22k boepd, 86.7mbboe 2P+2C
PTAL: £202m MCAP, £186m EV, 11k bopd, 39Mbboe 2P
PMO: £842m MCAP, £3.14b EV, 79.4k bopd (couldn't find summary of assets(

I believe in the drill and the company, and I don't deny we might get to a MCAP of £690m at some point, but I very much doubt it will be from this drill. We'll need to prove up the reserves, shoot more 3D on our acreage, resolve the HRZ and figure out what we do with our 30% of the western flanks. This is still a multi-year play to realise that level of value.

Based on previous performance of 88e and a few other companies (ECO, UKOG etc.), I could see the MCAP getting to £250m next year if we are successful (this is the highest we have been I think), but would expect it to then settle down somewhere in the £150-200m range. The forwards programme will then unfold as PMO decide to farm-in to Central and Eastern blocks, HRZ analysis will continue, and then the lateral side track in Q4 2020.

Afternoon,

Trying to model the economics of OPL310 - trying to understand the 17.15% participating interest and 30% economic interest per original FO terms.

Given the update from 30th August, am I correct in understanding that Lekoil no longer has a 30% economic interest?

So once all Lekoil historical and future costs +50% mark-up, and 5% annual compound interest per annum, they will receive 17.14% of net revenue?

Thanks

I’m sure it is a real offer - but are you not at all concerned about the state of the company offering a $5m loan? It is due to be struck off 17th Feb...

Are you not at all interested that 2 of the people who are involved in the offer set-up a crude oil extraction business on the 9th December?

Interesting company incorporated on the 9th Dec in the crude oil extraction business...

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/12353324

Coincidence that Thompson and McDonald re Directors?

Yup I know what OW said - it's consistent with what I say in my note earlier and consistent with the PMO presentation 60% = 150mbbls recoverable, so 100% recoverable = 250mbbls. All he's doing is providing narrative to the PMO numbers, which I still believe are just PMO's take on the Stellar prospect and is fine to be different from the 88e numbers. They are 2 different opinions based on the analysis of the geology, the seismics and the degree of conservatism that 2 different companies in 2 different stages of their corporate life cycle choose to take.

re: what recovery rate 88e have used - I don't know. All I can see is they have provided a probabilistic set of values under the definition of "Prospective Resources" - so scenarios for P10, P50 and P90. I assume under each of these scenarios they flex the recovery rate, but I don't know for sure. But I also don't believe the numbers if you run PANRs OIP resources through the same valuation techniques, they're simply too huge to be credible nor does it make sense from first principles. Why put a value on oil that cannot be recovered?

I don't deny the PANR recovery factors are not standard. My point is that the numbers for 88e are their view on recoverable resources and not OIP. I therefore believe they have taken an OIP number and assumed a set of recovery rates in their P10, P50 and P90 scenarios and taken the mean as their Prospective Resource.

To your final point - PANR also don't know any of the prospects other than Alkaid will flow, but they are also using recoverable numbers for Talitha Appraisal, Talitha Exploration, Theta and Mergez. So 88e are consistent with PANR in that respect.

Anyway - the good news is, if you take my more conservative view on PANR then there's plenty of upside. If you take your less conservative view then there's even more upside. Either way - there's plenty of upside!!

Re: 88e - then depending on what you believe I'm, either looking at best case 488mbbls recoverable net to 88e, or 75mbbls recoverable net to 88e. Even in the bear case it still amounts to a share price of 3.2p if it comes in and the market responds. So I'm good with that as a backstop as I still believe the bull case of 192mbbls net recoverable for Stellar is in play.

But this is a really good discussion, thank you for taking the time and good luck.

Maybe our debate is helping to improve the SP!! ;-)