Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The thing is, Jim is a *billionaire*! We, and everyone else knows that he could fund the mine build out of his own pocket if he wanted to. And that is the fundamental factor in these negotiations, he simply says to any producer that is seriously interested in the assets:
"Make it worth my while or I'll build the bloody thing myself. I did not invest and tie up tens of millions of pounds just to give these assets away to you people!"
So I think the negotiations have taken longer than expected due to finding the price at which both Jim and the buyer are content.
For the record I think this would be 60p MINIMUM, but of course I could be wrong. I just don't see Jim giving away billions in expected NPV for peanuts.
Both in USD and GBP, as well as plenty of other currencies. Condor's market cap spiked to £60M+ back in April/May 2023 when gold rose above $2000, yet here we sit at a £40M market cap with gold flying.
Come on JM/MC, get these assets sold!!
Simms re Calibre, I wonder how happy they would be to see Condor's assets sold to the Chinese for a relatively cheap price? If only we could get a binding offer agreed and announced then the other players would be forced to show their hands.
To be fair to Jim, gold is now at all time highs in dollars and less than £10 away from an all time high in sterling. I'd say his call on gold was correct, and I imagine he's very much using this news to hammer the point that the NPV of the project is flying higher and higher as the gold price rises whilst inflation falls.
Shame that the equity markets are an utter clown show, but a company's share price/market cap bears zero relationship to it's fundamental value as is more than apparent right now.
Hopefully Jim can close the deal soon and get a good price for us all.
I think they should just green light the current highest (binding) offer and then announce it. Let market do it's thing. If the price is too low for the value of the assets then they will see higher offers come in up to the going market value of the assets (which is far more than £60m).
I think Simms has a point that JM might be holding things up here expecting a much higher price. I can accept that if the current highest offer has gone from 20p to 50p, but not if it's gone from 20p to 25p (for example). This process cannot go on for too much longer surely, if JM is holding things up he will have to accept an offer soon otherwise one would expect the local community and government to be getting very impatient with Condor and that is something they will not risk.
Ronwoking in fact I asked MC about this exact issue just the other day, it's something management are very aware of and they are taking all necessary steps to manage that risk.
IMO this is exactly what will put a time limit on the sales process. The government won't let Condor delay indefinitely but they won't nationalise the company's assets (that is quite frankly ridiculous), they will simply say "time's up, take the best offer you have" and Condor will do so. Remember, MC has said that they have offers that they could accept right now if they were willing to compromise on their expected price, but who knows what the current highest offer is. We'll just have to wait and see.
Mark is definitely keeping his cards close to his chest, though he always answers promptly the most he's willing to say is that Jim is leading the advanced discussions with 2 gold producers and that the entire board are working on the best price for all shareholders. When a deal is signed they are required to announce it and it will require shareholder approval.
So it sounds to me like they are close to inking a deal, perhaps the reason for going dark is to prevent leaks? I've no idea, but it doesn't make sense to go dark if either nothing is happening or if things have changed in a material way (negatively). Mark always said they could have sold the assets much sooner if they were willing to accept less. I also think it's ok to reveal that Mark said he's "operating under legal advice" - make of that what you will.
If I may be so bold as to quote a small section of Dominic's article (do sign up for a week's trial and read the whole thing!):
"The acquisition of Condor has been on the cards for a long time, but, as I say, Mark is always quick to respond to texts, as all good promoters should be, if he senses potential coverage. He has been nudging me to write about Condor ever since we first met. But I messaged him a couple of days ago to see how things were progressing and, instead of the usual response, got a very curt, “I can’t comment on anything at the moment.” I emailed Jim asking if he had 10 minutes to chat about Condor and got a similar two-word reply, “Can’t Dominic”."
I would only say that it is indeed very uncharacteristic of MC to be completely "uncommunicative" (if that's the right word), so it does seem that "something" is happening! What that something is, and whether it will result in a binding offer, and if so how much that offer will be, are all up for debate.
Here's the link to the interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OT66D031p_g
"We are leaving $1000 an ounce on the table for the next man. The profit for the buyer will be enormous."
Simms that's why the sales process is taking longer, because JM and MC cannot see why a producer should take that large a share of the proceeds when it was Condor that took the majority of the risk. Now certainly a producer will take a share of the risk (ploughing $100m+ of capex just on mine build alone, not to mention opex and then mine build problems/overrun and then operational risks), so given they take more risk they should take more of the prize. But clearly JM and MC are working hard to fight for a bigger share for Condor shareholders, as MC has mentioned in past updates.
Worth everyone re-watching the latest update:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cceaaysQWk
Agreed Simms, by all accounts it does sound like negotiations are progressing, as frustrating as it is. When we finally get a binding offer (which I'm sure will come before too long) we will all breathe a sigh of relief.
Https://www.tradingview.com/x/O0tQ5AdQ/
This chart should illustrate how ridiculous the price moves in this share are. From the 12th to the 20th December, the price rose 70% with volume of over 10 MILLION. Then from the 29th to today, it dropped 16% with volume of 970 THOUSAND.
This is why the share is a coiled spring. With a bit of buying volume it absolutely rockets. When a binding offer is finally announced, buying volume will flood in and the MMs will no longer be able to push the share price down to ridiculous levels on low volume as the market will know what the floor is, with potential for higher future bids.
I very much hope this is the last Christmas I spend as a shareholder in Condor! Let's all hope Mark and Jim get the assets sold soon for a good price and we can all move on to pastures new.
Something tells me 2024 will be an interesting year in more ways than one.