Thank you Devilbhoy and Shouston,
Production increase happening and great news, Reserves expansion (and if we get it RBL) completely normalise the business from a production and finance p.o.v. and removes BH issue, then JV hoving over the horizon - a lot to like on the face of it - all for the price of feeding the birds!
A couple of questions from me that I apologise if others have answered recently;
1. Once our production increases, if we become strongly cash positive, is there an ioption to pay interest / pay off bonds in order to reduce dilution impact?
2. In terms of an RBL (for those lucky LTH who recall we were after one), at whgat point do we have enough production from reserves to allow us to try and gain an RBL (thereby allowing us to remove BH elements much quicker - I must admit this is an element I feel is very unclear.
Appreciate any views on these items whilst we continue our sub 2p malaise this afternoon.
*see you next tuesday
given he has deleted his account and wont therefore be reading the board....
benny blanco is to ****s what coke is to cola! lol.
I am breaking out the popcorn for 8am - we could be treated to a burn up of shorters of epic proportions - here's hoping
Rare I have felt it recently, but well done ART for securing a LOI given the extended period of time to gain agreement so far. 9 months in the making so far!
I hope this pushes the sentiment positive -along with imminent increased production there is a real basis for positivity - if the share price rises we can avoid a larger bond holder dilution. There is absolutely no reason other than selling pressure for our SP to be this low.
5p by Friday? or am i too conservative....
Todays rise is a positive - imagine if the rise continues, BH's hold and everyone holding shares is a winner.
Going to happen one of these times. Till then I will use your 1.8billion shares in issue as my comparator (you were much more optimistic than my 2billion estimate you ramper!
StanAccy,
Equally no-one is forcing you to buy and hold COPL shares - if you don't hold then, my goodness, I am envious of your time to burn.
I believe the asset values used were discounted to an industry normalised range to reflect the fact they aren't sitting in the oil tanker - but yes there is definitely risk there.
I get your concern - I just don't at present get your interest in posting on this board.
Apologies to BB if I am engaging where I shouldnt - I am at home and have two screens on my desktop - on one is this BB board (where I have learned a good deal today) and on the other is a twelve page dreary minutes write up and edit -I hope you understand.
Les Mouches
Hang dog! Easy tiger!
Answering my own question - the marvel of reading properly never ceases to amze!
Oil price in note $70, 1250bopd. Since note more financing but currently June 1263 bopd and current oil price is circa $76.
Production expected to rise further within the month - happy days on this aspect i think.
Easy,
Apologies if I am too much of a slow burner, but the report states 1250bopd gives a marginally positive EBITDA (not sure what oil price that is based on) but with June production of 1263 bopd have we passed the b/e threshold?
If yes and we are expecting further improvement that enormously derisks this share.
JppJ
Froma selfish point of view Im glad you are thinking of re-entering the share, but do you make all your investment decisions with an undertone of searing rage and hurt? I suspect you dont and as such maybe some numbers and scenarios may in some way help to get past that point (it certainly aids me).
Anyhow, I wish you well here or elsewhere as I do to all. FWIW - i've pursuaded myself to average down here - the GGS is key and if the worst case conversions looks pretty good to me.
JppJ
That has happenned, I am trying to gain view on what will happen next hence scenario build - I can then assess each element of scenario and try and gain a risk view to go forward - it helps me even if that doesnt help you.
If the drop from 38p (wehen i presume you bought from your post) to 1.7p is all you need to know, why are you still here? I'm here to gain understanding and views of others. i also have the burn marks of the past and i am currently assessing whehter I too am done.
All I am picking up from you at present is rage, you say you are done with this share, yet here you are, not being done with this share(?). Entirly your right, but I am not sure why youy object to my scenario, and call it ramping.
At no point have I called it a steal, a buy or given a view as to what others do.
NtD
Stan - how many bonds so you think will be put into circulation? - Unnd provided a defined view (that uses a 1.5p level.
This is a tower of If's
If GGS can make us breakeven for cash / steady state then we dont need new lending / financing / bonds.
If 1.5p is the low point then we have 2b shares (less if over 1.5p as now
If thats the case and you can stomach this BOD then this is good value at 1.6p.
Rather than searching for the emotional response and trying to whip up a froth of reaction, please could you provide a measured counter-scenario - for me, your credibility as a poster now relies upon it.
AtB
NtD
Unnd,
thank you - very difficult to see the wheat for the chaff on this board sometimes and I missed your post - a very good one at that.
So, if we take the possibility of 2billion shares at 1.5p thats a mcap of £30m versus an asset value of 652m or 32 p per share (at 2b shares)
I must therefore assume that the market sees the risk is of going concern and needing more financing is keyyyyyyy to current price then - but i think it is a reasonable view that GGP raised production will eliminate this risk (I would love a breakeven bopd view of COPL)
If price starts to rise, presumably the potential max shares in distribution falls thereby increasing that potential NAV per share? That being the case there could be a whiplash rise - never mind shorts closing, if for each rise of 0.1p, the potential dilution drops, there is a huge impact on the share price. Therefor once we start re-rating we will see a boom.
Again, Unnd - thanks for the info - I feel a lot more relaxed here as a result. ART has just got to ensure production increase and we can change the dynamic of this share, and all gods, power and humans willing, the constant unhelpful noise on this board!!
GLA
NtD
As price starts to rise, that potential for
I will openly say I am less sure of the bond conversion potential impact than i should be. Is there a way to run a theory as to the max impact of the dilution?
E.g. if we said the SP is a constant 1.5p (as we see nowish), if all BH converted, how many shares would we subsequently have in issue?
If anyone can advise if thats possible, as in its that simple to gain a view, I would be very appreciative. SP looks cheap but if we could end up with massive massive dilution - ie 20x more shares than now - its easier to understand the share price - if anyone can educate me or even has a theory model you could dispel a lot of the current unknown and as such potentially remove a lot of the froth from this board allowing a more rational discussion.
NtD
The SP is turning I believe. The GGP infrastructure alone should allow this share to rise a little as production rises. In terms of the risk of failure, I believe the going concern is about to be realised and that risk will be removed - hence I think a raise in SP is due - £9m mcap when you consider the firesale value of the assets is a complete steal, let alone the investment in the fields.
I refer to mcap as the bondholders and how this plays out and the amount of the company left for current shareholders, I am less sure so will leave to others - but seems to me there is plenty of value here to go around. Just wish I was free to have started my buying journey now rather than when we were up in the 20's.
Feeling very positive on production rise and SP rise as a result- believe the JV is currently irrelevant to short term share price though. I believe share price without a JV will be higher than 2.5p end of August. Just my opinion.
GLA
NtD
Still here Terry? Very odd given you still dont rate it. Suggest you take the advice of a TerryMC1 on this board below...
FWIW my view: Good solid results overall - no panic and delivering.
Behind the update you can clearly see the challenge of working in sub-sahara Africa (if you aren't providing the solution, you cant rely on others to provide the solution) and really exemplifies the hard work it takes there just to stand still, let alone drive a multi-year expansion. More work done than to be done imho - and by that I mean the harder riskier items are through for existing sites and refinements always easier after that.
Northern note to come and as well as hopefully starting that effort, should also free management time from that towards new venture planning.
Zooming out
I'm long from 2p here and operationally I still dont see any need to exit this potentially future giant company any time soon.
Fervently hope that this news is enough to rebase our SP, but as i'm not selling anytime prior to Northern expansion at a minimum its feel good rather than a need.
GLA
NtD
Very interesting and thank you Professor and others for highlighting this aspect. Spent a lot of my career as a negotiator / closer on very long term agreements and its always always exciting when the worm turns in who is the hunter and who feels hunted - should lead to some earnest negotiating space being freed up as this penny drops.
GLA
NtD