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Taken in good spirits - no offence at all. We have a great board here at present but I won’t lie, I can’t wait for it to be infested by Jonny come lately, arriving too late newcomers!
Waiting is a swine but is the cornerstone of speculative small cap investing.
My view at present:
Odds of a notice of deal - 15%
Next rns listing BIT claim - 85%
Not sure GoR have it in their DNA to rush a strong settlement and until BIT claim is lodged, how much sway to India gov have, if any, in driving a resolution.
All guesswork - only time tells.
NtD
Looks like the shorties are working in a bit of BB overtime (well afternoon time) as the rise has caught them out and they are too greedy to close the shorts.
Here's hoping for a similar rise tomorrow or even better some positive newsflow to really put a strong breeze on this as of now small SP fire. Hot hot hot - Dont get burnt!
GLA
NtD
Probably less than that 1.5% even, Shear - remember we have two other very solid claims at Cascades and (errr...) the other one!
So success is barely factored in at all at this SP.
TBH -that is what is puzzling me - win or lose Bhukia and we will more than likely get made whole again by Cascades alone - why arent people taking a punt - 1 chance to win big, another chance to get a return on the cost of the ticket.
When peeps say this share is cheap, its not just cheap on the future Millionaire aspect, its also cheap on the other two prospects as at right now.
I've chased many share rainbows before (I like a Rodney share exposure or two), had maybe two good wins , probably 5 or 6 or 8 or more disappointments, but for me, this seems to be the strongest and a lot of that for me is the lack of rabid PI's frothing at the mouth on the BB - see EUA, COPL (two I have for my sins) and many many more.
I know no-one likes a cross ramp, but if anyone has similar profile oilers, miners or tech (not Pharma) I would appreciate a gentle nudge. Not HE1 - i see that is building excitement on its drilling right now).
I think there should be a cross ramp board (if there is please point me at it).
I am of the belief that this share is going to be a winner from here.
GLA
NtD
It jumped up though rather than drifting up - implies a solid reason for the change in sentiment - leak?
One day :)
Certainly not good results - but do not look at net debt in isolation - need to consider stock on hand also as they defer sales .
Not saying it’s rosy but it isn’t dire either
Thanks Ragnarr
Not speaking for the board here, but I invested akin to SteamyWee in that I looked at esports - now Dynasty. Satoshi was an exciting lottery ticket - and I think it is still a lottery ticket - its just I have less frission of excitement about it, bt hope it makes it.
Like many, I remain here to see the Dynasty potential realised, and hoping Satoshi pull a live rabbit from the hat.
In my research of BLU I didnt factor the lack of exertable influence they have and if i was to invest again I would probably avoid on that basis. But im in play and illogically given this sentence I dont want to bail before Dynasty plays out.
I suspect there is a lot more than just Steamy and I with this view.
I am interested in the fact that the new CEO has not bounded into the media to get going. If we assume that the GGS worked and there is good initial increase, there is scope for him to do an interview or 2 stressing the short term direction and validating that we are, or are projected to be cashplus in xxx days.
1. Either the above isnt the case and there are further problems on this element
2. It is correct but BOD / JV partner for some unknown reason arent wanting to disclose this, or,
3. Art is still defacto in charge and new CEO will take his cues from Art as to when he breaks ranks and updates.
I will be disappointed if the new model is as the old model of comms post the going concern debacle. It is in the power of the new CEO to update now on production forecast - it therefore worries me he isnt.
Thanks for sharing F1 - very much appreciated.
TBH the chatter in India further clouds the view for me - why arent people buying? Leaky leaky but no peaky peaky so to speak?
I realise this is just us frothing as we wait - but I like froth
I am also not expecting a deal announced today. If the court case indicated that the parties are talking and to move forward - is there a possibility that the share is suspended pending finalisation of a settled agreement or would this just take place with speculation going mad on the share? Appreciate response if people have experience of this type of situation in the past.
Intriguing.
I hope you can update soon F1.
I have two other Oilers in my risky PF - Zephyr and COPL. I always considered Chariot as the less risky one of these three(its all relative!) but on balance I am leaning towards further supporting these other two at the expense of Chariot. Trust is a massive factor in investing and at present my trust has been lost here - its the lack of sharing the cash runway that clinches this decision - without a strawman view they are relying on pure trust and I dont see that as the case in my other 2 oilers (well, Zephyr anyway!).
I wish you all the very best of good fortune here and wanted to say thank you to all contributors - it is an excellent BB.
GLA
NtD
My average is 154p but to be fair an almost breakeven would not be too bad I suppose. The share option my end with you owning an illiquid asset in which you are a pure passenger - not for me!
I am interested in why people think there may be other offers - great if there is but I would find it unusual - its so early and you would be bidding against the founder management - easier to contact them and express an interest in funding the future I would think.
GLA
NtD
Veteran,
I am for the first time also mulling whether i continue to support. The fact that Wallace is so impressive at comms and knows his stuff just highlights that the murky comms we receive are deliberate. Lets face it our best ideas of what goes on are due to the experience and posting of Jimmy (for which i am very grateful).
They always soften the dilution by allowing us PI's to partake, which is clever, but my trust drops over time and the fact they arent squaring up to the first gas point just highlights that we are not being held on the inside of real comms.
I have the good fortune to be in profit here and with my trust in board dropping, I will be doing some thinking in the short -term.
Yes it could be big, but how long? and can they do it? and are they forthcoming with truthful statements? When will they run out of money? Of the last raise, how much is to fund a shrtfall of cash caused by delay (which they arent quantifying) and how much is for the new venture - you can guarantee they have that info internally - they just choose not to share.
That last one is the kicker for me.
And Bubble, I think this is the first "moan" Ihave posted here in 4 years - and its not a moan - just elucidating the point of trust and investment.
NtD
Personally I think the company is right to stay quiet till we are at or beyond 36-2 test - unless there is other news in interim on other areas - simply put a Gone Fishin' (for pipe) sign up. Its frustrating, but regular updates of nothing imho is far worse to hear.
The fishing will end. It will mean we continue 36-2 or dont. If proceed we will test.
I have faith that BOD are aligned to my interests and will drive this accordingly given CH share allocation.
Therefore update not required until update is required.
AIMHO
It would make sense that there is money on balance sheet - the future eastern limb / mopani work seems to be slow in announcing and as such we would have the FCF being parked for when these items come to fruition.
So not a bad situation for me - as ever with ratio's or charts for that matter - being able to link them to the narrative of the share is helpful.
Good Stuff - 52week high is 10.4 I believe. I dont think its too much to ask that we at least start hitting new highs - also puts us on more peoples radar if we do.
Excluding JV for a moment and looking at production. If COPL can begin to demonstrate recovery in BOPD to past highs and then beyond, then I believe the SP will rise to 8-10p level.
What I would like to know is how much oil is coming from the 2 secret wells - apart from the impact on JV, these could be crucial in terms of BOPD and our breakeven.
I personally think we will be 10p plus by end of year. My average now sits at just under 11p so hoping for a squeak more.
Add in JV or takeover and who knows but my point is I believe we can get to or near double digits and freecashflow positive on our own within the timeperiod of the current cash flow indicated in the RNS - Q1 2024.
That would draw a line on our sorry misadventure and along with a new figurehead on the BOD a new lense on COPL in my view.
Hi Dave
You are correct in terms of NAV, but as to share price, I am pretty sure the market has been discounting the majority of AZ potential benefit, so in terms of share price Iam hopeful we rise as this goes forward and as you say, releasing the money may allow redeployment to new, simpler, more short term opportunities that the directors have access to.
I think the market can discern strong cash inwards proceeds and work out the potential freecash flow pre capital investments and take this into account.
The key factor being does the market believe the Capital investments are good and have faith of return (via a larger future free casdhflow) as a result of the investment.
Being honest, JLP have a patchy record on this of recent - may be out of their control but they need to reprove this element to the market as a whole.
Me - I am very happy with the FCF being used to expand - my timeline is long and i dont have any divi expectations of the stock in my reckoning - I do however expect to see an ever growing future free cashflow build as a result of the cpaital deployed. If that occurs then I am very happy and I think the markets will be also.
GLA
NtD