The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Mazik
Almost correct.
The amount attributable to the options on Conduit / Murphy is £3.25million
($4,884,367 at today's exchange rate)
But the amount of further value is increased, as we are due an upfront payment of £200,000 on commencement of companion diagnostic project with SGSC
We are also due (well overdue at the last count) approx £53,000 from a certain shareholder that did not honour his debt at the time.
I have posed a number of questions to the company, who i have always found to be very approachable.
Some of which were responded to, by advising that they could not comment on, as that information requires to be revealed to market by way of RNS.
Other questions i asked are awaiting a response.
Neil
"there is no reason for the option price to be less than half the current sp".....
Well yes there is actually.
Options are issued based on the VWAP of the previous month, not on an arbitrary number decided by the BOD.
The options are granted in lieu of 2 years pay rises, so a longer term commitment than just next year.
Assuming that all the BOD take up all the options, they will have to stump up a serious amount of money in order to facilitate them.
I will reserve judgement for now.
Neil
Some very relevent events upcoming to us :
7th Annual Liquid Biopsy for precision oncology summit San Diego
14th - 16th February 2023
Fast-Tracking Your Test Approvals & Reimbursement Path with Strategic Partnerships to Benefit Patients
The 7th Liquid Biopsy for Precision Oncology Summit returns as the largest and most comprehensive forum for all stakeholders in the field to tap into the promising opportunities that revolutionize the entire cancer patient care continuum from early translation all the way through to clinical development and commercialization.
13th World (Europe) Clinical Biomarker & CDx Europe Summit 2023 London
April 26th & 27th 3023
Accelerating Biomarker-Driven Drugs into Clinical Trials Whilst Strategising Your CDx Development, IVDR Compliance & Commercialisation Path to Improve Clinical Decision Making & Patient Outcomes
Not confirmed, but i wonder if Allan Syms and/or Dawn Coverley will be making an appearance.
Neil
theonlywayis....
If you are a bit emotional now you better stock up on the Kleenex !
Share price will go up, and fall back as the newbies cash out with 100% profits at these levels and some LTH's decide they just want their stake back. It will be like this for a while until news of commercialization is announced. Then it will really rise. Thereafter, it will follow the same pattern, but incrementally higher, until further news.
The thing is, there is so much news to come.
Further agreements.
Licensing.
But the really big news items will be on the new projects we are engaging in.
The ULTIMATE news is an announcement that we have developed a lateral flow test. Just think for a minute what that means in terms of our potential market.
Trust me, a rise of 20 -30% will be NOTHING!!!
Much has been discussed about Martin Lang. Yes he /they have taken a large stake here. However, there are other investors that also have a large holding, and deliberately keeping under the 3% reporting threshold so they are not required to disclose their identity.
Widglide apologies for my pop at you recently. It was nothing personal, just that when i spend so much time and effort on my research, and things look so clear to me, i find it hard to keep down my frustration that others can't see it. But that is my problem not yours. I'm just pleased to see you feeling a little more happy with the rises lately.
The newcomers will have the upper hand on us long term holders, as they got in a lot lower than us, but don't worry - you WILL be rewarded.
Neil
Dr Tom Roques interview on TV this morning.....NHS misses their target of cancer treatment Record high number of 7 million patients awaiting treatment2000 doctors needed just to cope with diagnosing patientsMost of those patients will turn out not to have cancer, but will still have to go through tests, surgery to confirm cancer or no cancer........If only there was a test that could rule out up to 90% of those patients. Anybody know of one?LB one example of how a share price can do what Jace commented on......Novacyt. trading at 6 pence. within 2 years, after announcing their successful development of covid test, trading at £1.90 - It can be done. Neil
Computer crashed....
DD77 as you appear well aquainted with M&A valuation, can you provide the board with your calculations as to how Astra Zeneca's valuation worked for the purchase last month of Neogene ($320million)
or the purchase in November of Teneo Two for $1.3billion)
or the intended purchase of Cincore for an upfront fee of $1.8billion?
Neil
Evening LB,
In answer to your queries last night,,,,,
I know bugger all about mining, so we can both help each other out here!
Dawn Coverley has approx 45 or so medical publications in her own name, but there are loads more that cite her as the principle author/contributor to other published papers. Also, watch for papers where Justin Ainscough is credited.
Regards the one or two patents, there are actually 13 fully granted patents worldwide, a further 5 that are pending and a handful that were lapsed/abandoned as they were not focused on the initial platform that Fujiburo were looking for some years previously. There may well be a few more that are being complied at present as our progression continues.
Of those pending, there are a number that are partially granted, in that a patent is filed with "claims" Some of the claims are accepted, and some are disputed.
On the issue of protection of our patent, we are pretty well covered, even against copycat cases, as it is the technology and execution of the assembly of the reagents and antibodies that are the core.
Doesn't really matter how big the big boys are, as our intellectual property is already patented and protected. (though i take the point of their deeper pockets)
I will use a very simple analogy of grafting fruit trees to try and explain the process as i understand it. (weird i know, but stay with me...)
CIZ1 is the nuclear protein. Lets call this the rootstock of a fruit tree.
For lung cancer detection, we need to "graft" a variant of the protein which is the B variant. Lets call this the apple tree.
This gives us CIZ1-B. The B variant is what is known as being the exon. (exon 14 in this case)
Where we graft it onto the rootstock is the junction (or cut if you like)
Now, lets call the antibodies and reagents, soil or compost, and fertilizer. By using different compost composition, and using different types and strengths and combinations of fertilizers, we get the best growth, and fruit bearing tree, and know that it is perennial (by that i mean repeatable) This is very simplistically what the assay optimisation is.
Now, the next test we want to develop is to detect breast cancer.
So we now need to graft a different fruit on a rootstock.
Lets call this one a cherry tree.
This will be a different variant, requiring a different exon junction, so may be CIZ1-S, and the process above will be carried out again.
As you say, it's a race to get to the" garden centre", but we need to make sure that these "fruit trees" aren't susceptible to disease, and can produce the best fruit, and be the same every time.
Hope this helps to visualize what i am trying to get at.
Can't remember the date, but last year or so, i posted about M&A activity, and who was buying who out, along with the ridiculous amounts they paid. One name i mentioned keeps on coming up again, and again,.
Neil
Read into that what you will. ;-))
So it looks like people are starting to take notice of CIZ
Maybe they have realised the fact that we aren't just about a diagnostic kit.
I pointed out the previous mention about additional reagents manufacturers being appointed, and "other projects"
Here is why in my opinion:
Apart from diversifying into detection of different cancers, (breast, colon etc) each specific cancer type can benefit from further practical uses our kits can perform.
1. Risk analysis - identifying those at risk of developing a cancer.
2. Screening (huge in it's own realm) - used to screen otherwise healthy cases for possible malignancies.
3. Diagnostic - used where a subject is already suspected to have a cancer. E.g. by presenting to hospital with unconnected case, but CT scan may have identified nodules.
4. Prognostic - where a subject has been identified as having a cancer, a prognostic marker can be used to determine the likelihood of a recurrence.
5. Predictive - where a subject with known cancer diagnosis, a predictive biomarker can be used to follow their response to a treatment / drug, or determine the most effective treatment or therapy.
6. Monitoring - can be used to monitor how effective the prescribed treatment or therapy is working, and if changes need to be made.
Just imagine, if our kit does all that, and frees up the multiple departments involved, what would the NHS give for such a product ? !
I also read up on the call for biomarkers to be used routinely in the NHS but i can't post a link due to being available only to healthcare professionals, and copyright, but if you want a good read , google
"consensus group calls for routine use of cancer biomarkers"
Neil
i think most that were watching the interview assumed that it finished at 8:30 as there were only 2 of us stilled logged in.
The round table discussion took place after the interview with some good points discussed.
One topic was on regulatory reform, and the problems that Brexit presented. (no political views please!) and it being a harder task to bring to market while satisfying all the different requirements. CE marking, UKCA, FDA etc.
Interesting one about Switzerland adopting FDA approval procedure rather than EU, as a faster way to gain approval, with other countries expected to follow suit.
He also ended with a conversation on how the BOD recognise that shareholders are frustrated that they are not being told of every development, but pointed out that they are restricted by the financial regulators as to how, what and when they can update shareholders, and he would love to be able to give us more information, but can't.
The implication to me is that there is news that he would like to roll out but we will have to wait until they are allowed to.
Also very appreciative of shareholders support.
Neil
So, lots more information uncovered, and apologies if it gets a bit out of synch as i am referencing a number of sources.
Document AAC (005) well worth a read - TYPE "GALLERI-TEST-TRIAL-LAUNCH" to view.
This little snippet shows the steps Grail/Illumina are taking and agreements with the NHS
Seems that they would have "access to test 1m patients subject to their test proving results are in line with expectations at a pre- agreed (but undisclosed) price.
NHS will not be under any obligation to purchase unless Galleri is proven to be effective.
These "results" are what they are banking on from the trial they are currently engaged in with NHS . 1 MMILLION TESTS?
Now here is an interesting observation..... in this report, they are claiming CE marking of their test. Really?
How did they manage that since they haven't validated these results yet? Incidentally, they will be using those results in support of their application for FDA since they don't have that approval either.
Some of you may remember i posted about the anti-trust case going through USA and EU at the minute directing Grail/Illumina to unwind the company. Part of their defence and objection to the ruling was that the had no products or services in Europe, so the case should not be heard.
How do you get a CE mark on a product that doesn't exist then?
Talking of the anti-trust case, did you know that Galleri and Grail spent $14.6 million lobbying various bodies in 2021/2022 in an attempt to get support against the federal regulators.?
They also expanded their lobbying into EU and UK,
Can't believe my eyes.... they even employed previous prime minister DAVID CAMERON as an advisor in 2019 shortly before winning a contract with a company owned by the Department of Health and Social Care !!!!!
This bit is especially to the NHS -
So a company claims they can detect 50 cancers?
Look a bit further than that exciting headline.
In Grails own reports, they state Galleri is NOT a diagnostic test and is intended to be used as a compliment to existing screening
50 cancers, but the AVERAGE sensitivity is just 51.5% and varies based on the cancer type and stage, which isn't optimal.
For instance, Galleri was shown to detect just 18.2% of kidney cancers compared to 93.5% of lung cancers. Overall, it picked up 90.1% of stage 4 cancers and only detected an average of 16.8% of stage 1 cancers. ours is claimed to be 95%) and varies wildly between different cancers.
90.1% at stage 4? errr, a bit late if you think this is "early detection" and 16.8% at stage 1?
Let me put that as simplistic as i can....... if i asked my son "do i have cancer ?" and he said YES, then i asked my daughter the same question and she said NO, then one of them would still be more than 3 times more accurate than this test !
Come on lets see the RNS tomorrow telling us the test is ready to go (PS it doesn't need CE mark or 510(K) to get into UK clinical trial for NHS
Neil
Afternoon all
Just been having a quick look at the activity today, and not sure if something is afoot, or it's just coincidence with the interview with Alan Syms being on Wednesday evening, I wass going through some more of the reports i was talking about last week, and more stuff has come to light. Don't know if i'll get time to get through it all and post tonight, as i am at work at the minute, but if i can, i will post more.
There's stuff on diagnostics, the NHS , Galleri,
Best regards
Neil
If anyone is in any doubt as to why China is in dire need of our test.....
Report published by BMC cancer in 2021 into missed diagnosis of lung cancer.
For all the advances China has made in cancer screening, it seems it never carried out research into the level of missed diagnosis.
The report that BMC Cancer commissioned, used current cancer screening guidelines over a period 2006 -2017.
Shockingly the results discovered that using these guidelines, the percentage of missed cancer diagnosis was as high as 90.8% !
It also discovered that there was an increasing number of missed cases where they would not expect. For example the younger generation , and people that had never even smoked!
Normally, screening would be on the basis of certain criteria of the subject (age, smokers, pre-disposition etc) but it would appear that these criteria, are excluding a significant number of cases that would not be screened, and therefore risk the advancement to stage 2 or further, and then being diagnosed at too late a stage for any intervention to be effective.
Clearly the parameters of eligibility for screening needs to be reviewed.
What they really need is a cheap, quick, easily administered test to include as many people as possible, not just those that they think MAY be at risk.
Neil
Danielm89
Thank you for the invitation to join the telegram group, but i am afraid i will decline the invitation. Nothing personal, but when i started posting on PSL/BOU during suspension and subsequent delist, and all seemed lost, some people questioned my motives, and
what i knew, and how i knew it, and i made it quite clear that i am just a normal investor who's only "agenda" was to help other investors, In particular, those that were caught in the delist and lost money.
As part of this, i stated that any information i was able to pass on would be made available to everybody, and not just certain people or groups.
Hope you understand my position.
I will keep posting when i find anything i think could help anybody, and i do have more information i have found, but i have to be mindful that i don't want to appear to be hogging the board.
Best regards
Neil