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Nothing - I share your thinking
The fundamentals are there - in all the major indicators
C19 is most likely the impacting factor . Most of the customer base is business which has not been consuming electricity.
The Q1 results should provide a better insight into the impact. I hope now business in India is back to operations the Opg statement will be able to offer a positive projection for the year.
I expect there will be a re-rating in the coming months.
Been painfully slow
GLA
Hoping to see the Q1 numbers and a positive projection for the rest of the FY
This remains a solid predictable growing business (c19 aside)
Terms loans being repaid
Coal price - significantly down
Tariffs increased increased
Electricity Demand set to increase
Share price close to ATL
Speculation of acquisition - puts it on the radar
In time this will re-rate - double bagger +
GLA - DYOR
OPG issued statement that news of sale has no merit
Good news is that it puts them in the spot light and certainly at higher price
MM
I would expect the SP to rise in the next 6-12 month based on the this being a predictable business (c19 excluded) with a payment schedule for the terms loans. The 1st H results will not be stella but balanced with lower coal and operational costs. Hopefully there will be positive projection for the remainder of the FY ...
DYOR
A very small volume- + volatility in the market - I personally think there is a correction coming but I don’t think it will be before US elections in November 2020.
OPG will have issued H1 statement and paid off more debt ...
In the absence of any news since the results - I am thinking through the options
1. OPG have a modest year and pay down the term loans - no major SP movement in 2020
2. We see better/ improved results in the 2H (EOY March) share re-rates in 2021
3. OPG path to profit and gearing improvements- generate buyer interest and the get taken out ? ( 4 to 5 x )
4. It just steadily ticks up..
5.Other ?
I expect this just share to light up and re- rate but I fail to answer when ?
Thoughts
DYOR
Hi Paul
A great summary of the recent events and trajectory. This will certainly add to share price momentum but AMl will also need post tangible numbers that demonstrate they have reduced their cost base and associated margins with a plan to profit.
They have the team to do this and I share your thoughts that AML will get taken out - the bus question I ask myself is when ?
I am in for the long term ...
Positive that the SP was steady today - markets got hammered
Sell being hoovered up - patience will reward ...
Everything is moving in the right direction - we just need to move 20+
The numbers and predictability is what like - they time to re-rate has been painful
Patience I tell myself
It has been like that for a long time
What is the trigger now - and the SP Impact?
I expect this to re-rate in the short to medium term
End of year results were positive
Plan in place to minimise C19 impacts / revenue vs costs
Cost of coal significantly down
Terms loans being paid off - low gearing
Increase in tariffs
Steady revenue streams
Indian demand for electricity is only going one way
Board actually doing what they committed to do in the last 2 years ...
This is becoming a predictable business ( C19 excluded) with a fantastic upside...
DYOR
Probably not getting the attention it deserves given the crazy market
NA - thank you - no apology needed
I did Copy and paste from MW. - I did a general search on who would buy AML.
I have been thinking about about the possibility of an acquisition and the timing.
1. Do you wait for the company to return first year numbers - (higher share price if good)
2. Do it now with a lower share price believing in the new management will turn it around
3. Other?
4. Not at all Too much risk
There is some speculation that DB May take them out...
Exciting journey what ever happens
DYOR