Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
Oleo, you would want look at the NMR data to see if it showed the water was mobile. check the interval the saturation profile is over as the Interburden within the Kyalla will have high total and effective sw. The target intervals have lower effective sw. Check the sw you referred to isn’t total sw(pore and structural/clay bound). If so This would include elements that are bound and don’t form part of the effective sw. It’s the effective porosity and effective sw/sg that will be of interest.
I haven’t seen anything reported that the flowback includes a portion formation water. Are you able to share that report as maybe I missed it.
Curious to know if people are so down on Origin as operator why they don’t move their investment into Empire or Santos or wait for the Tamboran IPO.
Don’t fully get the Origin is slow and lazy sentiment either relative to other basin players. Pace of exploration in the middle of no where is obviously slower way than in any NA basins but that is to be expected. Since 2014 Origin has drilled 4 verticals and 2 hzs. Santos has drilled no new wells and simply fracd T1 which they drilled prior to 2014, Empire has drilled a single vertical in this time and Tamboran/sweetpea have done nothing. If you look at technical journal publications (SPE, AAPG, APEA, PESA, etc ) Origin again leads their peers.
But I guess the arm chair engineers and geos know best.
If the 2C bookings and in place resource assessment is so valuable, as many here suggest, how do you explain Falcon selling 25% of the Beetaloo for $25m Australian. This transaction demonstrates that little to no value is ascribed to the 2C and resource booking.
But what do I know. As wetwater has stated, I’m likely just a lowly Petroleum engineer.
If I did know anything I’d probably suggest that this transaction has reset the beetaloo valuation and future valuations will be anchored to the most recent transaction.
Hey Newtofo,
I agree. It would of been more or less impossible for a jr oil and gas company to raise money in the current environment. POQ has done what is necessary to keep Falcon in the game for the short to mid term which is not easy given the current state of the capital markets. Origin likely received a good deal acting as lender of last resort; however, with the carry increase and drop in WI falcon should be able to relax and watch the results come in until past stage 3.
For all those that are bashing POQ I don’t think he did much wrong on this transaction. It looks like a transaction of necessity. I’m sure he would have preferred the timing to be different and in different market conditions but some things are out of your control and ultimately this may prove to be a prudent move for his shareholders.
You would assume that with the new gross carry that Falcon gets to sit back and relax and enjoy the show now. Not the worst place to be.
Haha Oh the Schadenfreude.
Dprussky- clearly you don’t know the difference between the net and gross carry. I’ll try to break it down for you. Origin just acquired a 25% stake of falcon for A$25m. This equates to roughly 10 cents a share Australian or 8.6 cent a share Canadian. However, since this is not a cash payment but a carry that Origin through amendments to the JOA can more or less spend whenever they see fit it. This reduces the value even further on a per share basis even further as its not an upfront payment as the time value of money will erode further value as origin pushes out spend. So unfortunately for you not a 0.6$/share valuation hahah
So while Cenkos are proclaiming a great deal for Falcon (it should alleviate further funding needs to get through to the end of stage 3) the other institutions are saying well done Origin. Furthermore, given that it looks like Origin has stacked the JOA in their favour it may be difficult to ultimately sell out to anyone but Origin as most buying parties don’t like entering into a JV with a stacked JOA.
The JV is still not out of the woods yet. This only allows Origin to continue with preparatory work until the subsequent case is heard which will consider whether the minister followed due process to approve the EMP.
I wouldn’t read to much into the wells being classified as appraisal. This is simply a function that there is little to know risk of the Kyalla or Velkerri not being present at their respective locations (I.e. the purpose of an exploration well would be to confirm the presence of a source rock interval). The risk hangs around the RQ/CQ and resulting deliverability
Wet,
Again you were slightly misinformed. The case was heard last Friday with a ruling made yesterday. The good news is that Blundy failed to get an injunction to stop work allowing origin to proceed for the time being.
We****er, you will be disappointed to know that the lowly engineers that you clearly don’t have respect for are the ones coming up with AFEs...but as you clearly don’t have any experience working at an E&P you wouldn’t know that
As for the Kyalla, I’ve never argued that the well is an exploration well as it’s not since we know the Kyalla is there thereby making it an appraisal well by definition. Nor have I argued that the Kyalla isn’t a target worth appraising as it is. I simply have said that the you have misinterpreted the information around chance of success from the conservation you had with Dave Close a year or two back
This all leads to to another interesting question and more serious issue we****er....if what you say is true and what I say is false then you are trading on information that is not public knowledge (neither origin or falcon has stated the values you allude to) and would be material to falcons share price
Hey Newtofo, I wouldn’t be to worried about Origins internal expertise as they have the most shale expertise of any of the companies in the Beetaloo with many of their key positions filled by Canadians with extensive North American experience.
On the Frac service side there are really only two options being SLB and HAL. Given Origins internal expertise and the fact they will be using big blue or big red they will be fine from an execution standpoint.
Bahaha I made sure to copy this exert from the great oracle that is we****er as he always claims to know so much but really doesn’t :
“Please explain to us why you think Falcon needs a capital raise right now. I don't know if you understand what a full carry means on these next 4-5 wells. Falcon has a $2 million burn rate and likely about $6 million in the bank. Why in the world would you think it would be advantageous to raise $20 million at this time - for what?? If the Kyalla meets their expectations (an unknown) Falcon will easily double in price. The longer they put off a raise the more likelihood of a higher share price thus less dilution. Maybe not even a stock dilution, he might have plans for the large institutions he is courting.
Unless Falcon has to participate in its JV cost on any additional wells POQ doesn't think Falcon needs any further raise. I think I will take him at his word. POQ has been a well respected oil and gas accountant most of his career - I would suggest you pay attention to what he says before you start making all your Nostradamus predictions.”
Wet water, I can promise you whoever told you 90% is full of it. I’d suggest you read Cote et als. Appea paper if you want actual estimates of chance of success for the various plays. The COS carried in the paper is low for both the Velkerri flank and Kyalla. I’d suggest you check your sources as they are just plain wrong or outright lies.
Wet water ... your estimate of success is pretty bullish. Maybe we reviewed different well completion reports but given The flow rates during test at Shenandoah from the Kyalla was too small to measure and that was with nitrogen assist to help unload (so pretty much 0scf/d), I don’t think you can take that to suggest a 90% chance of success. Also, I don’t think David Close is as bullish on the Kyalla as you make him out to be. Origin simply identified as another target worth testing (which it is). The geomech work suggests it more brittle than you would expect from mineralogy alone was the key outcome of their work. It will likely be in a maturity window that means it’s in gas-condensate window but that brings lower chances of technical success given the fluids higher viscosity.
Ilvelo and tnbird, I take it neither of you work in industry or have ever valued an oil and gas asset in your lives given what you have written below. The cost will likely run into the 10s of billions for pipelines, gpfs, wells, etc. I’m curious tnbird to get to you 20 billion falcon market cap evaluation ... what is your cost of capital assumption, when are you assuming production from, when will peak production be achieved, what is you peak production assumption, commodity pricing assumptions, well cost, gpf capex, opex, EUR pet well, well IPs, etc? I take it you haven’t thought of any of those....or probably know what half those are. Newtofo’s valuation is at least within what I think a plausible future value might be. His valuations are at least well grounded in something facual. Just to put it into context... Origin is a large vertically integrated company with probably half its market cap coming from its power generation and electricity retail divisions. Of the remaining 7 billion half is probably their working interest in their lng terminal with the remaining 3.5 billion being there Coal seem gas assets. The CSG assets produce over a Bcf a day with the and would have a reserve base similar to what might be achievable in the Beetaloo. Also keep in mind that the majority of capex in that project is a sunk cost at this point inflating the present value of the project when evaluated today rather than full life cycle. Very curious as to how you get to 20$ a share. Had a very good laugh though.
Hey Wet, You might be conflating the dst at Amungee targeting the Hayfield Sandstone with a test in the Kyalla. Cote et al.’s APPEA paper would have mentioned the Hayfield DST and the fact that it looked promising.
Orson, I will have to respectfully disagree with your comments. I do not think the Beetaloo is figured within our permits by a long shot nor do I think Dave thinks that nor do I think that’s why Dave left. With three wells and only one frac’d well with a shortened ept we are hardly in a position to say it’s figured out. By that measure you could say the santos permits are figured out as well as it’s easy to tie everything from their wells to ours from a G and g perspective. I really do not think Dave is so naive as to think what you suggested. I don’t think this board grasps the technical uncertainties and challenges remaining. The general attitude is such that you would think 20+ wells proving the delivarbility of any of the targets had been drilled. Everyone keeps harping about the volumetric but that’s not really what’s important here and not what’s going to create value. Deliverability and repeatability will. Australia is littered with failed 50+ tcf onshore projects. The next two wells that seem to be on origins list are extremely high risk. If they work fantastic and huge upside as a result but the odds of them working are low. That is what the Beetaloo is ... a long shot with a massive reward if it works. It’s still early days so fingers crossed