Coal15 Jun 2015 07:51
Coal: ****ged off: Coal is the most hated commodity in the world. The tale of woe is familiar: falling demand in China, cheaper gas and subsidised renewable energy in North America and Europe, tighter emissions regulations. Surely it must be in decline, then? Not quite. Consumption grew 0.4% last year, against a 10-year average of 2.9%, according to BP’s energy review. But supply cuts have been slow in coming, so coal prices have slid — for thermal coal (used in power generation) from about $120 a tonne in 2012 to $59 now. Ditto share prices, especially in the U.S. Walter Energy is down 99% from its 2011 peak. It “deferred” a $19 million interest payment on its debt this week. Most of the best assets in Australia, South Africa and Latin America are locked up in the diversified mining groups. Of these, even at those most exposed to coal, South 32 and Glencore, coal accounts for less than a fifth and a tenth of profits respectively. Shares in Chinese coal producers have been overinflated by the domestic equity boom; Shaanxi Coal has nearly tripled in a year. Indonesia, home to several large players, has a poor reputation for corporate governance. The U.S. looks like a falling knife.