FT on impact of lower oil on Malays22 Jan 2015 06:49
Malaysia:
wolves return: As the oil price keeps falling, the wolf pack has returned. Though not one of the world’s largest oil exporters, Malaysia does rely on oil income. In 2013, oil contributed roughly half of government revenues. Next year that should fall to about a fifth, thinks CLSA. All that hard currency will be missed and could affect the country’s investment grade credit rating. Meanwhile, the ringgit has lost 13% against the U.S. dollar since late August, more than any other Southeast Asian currency. Note that foreign investors (as of September) owned nearly half of all local government, ringgit-denominated debt, worth roughly $19 billion. Nine years ago they held 5%. This amount is the equivalent of a third of its foreign exchange reserves. Malaysia’s stock market carries a premium valuation at 15 times forward earnings against 12 for Asia (ex Japan). In 2010, Asia traded just below Malaysia’s multiple. For those committed to Malaysian equities, focus on defensive companies such as Axiata (telecoms), which has holdings spread around Southeast Asia, and Tenaga (electric power) on a 5% yield.