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Interesting that the chair, Lord Allen has bought a substantial amount bringing his holding to about 1.5m, a significant proportion of his estimated personal wealth. I do think maybe he was averaging down like you lot in a state of shock while cursing MM under his breath, but on the other hand it does make me suspicious that the plans to spin off parts for much needed cash, maybe to a foreign buyer maybe in hand.
Indeed. A run of bad luck. But how did they reduce the debt - from operating profits? No. A history of simply diluting shareholders from pounds to pennies...!! Paul Scott of Stockopedia thought this was a great pandemic recovery play as it got back to pre pandemic revenue and the debt was not a big problem as it would be covered by the cashflows of the motor insurance side of the business, leaving the now more efficient profitable cruise side of the business with the 2x1000 berth ships to pick up the cruise spending of the richest generation of pensioners in history. Unfortunately it's just not happening, the profits are not there and the debt is going to crush it.
Going into a recession with such a debt pile - it simply doesn't work out unless they take drastic action and sell assets to get the debt down - maybe they will do that and yet another massive dilution...? A real shame there is so much debt. You could ignore it for a while if they got back to pre-pandemic turnover levels and also start making real profits, but not with this guidance. All the operators are steeped in debt from Carnival to P&O. P&O took drastic action, sacking workers, (https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/mar/18/po-ferries-sackings-unions-protests-disruption-shipping-markets-russia-oil-business-live?page=with:block-6234740d8f081efd3276ec5f) and now, despite falling revenue is making decent profits and paying dividends. Cant see SAGA doing that.
Interesting. "Lawyers are only accepting claims from people who took brand name Zantac, and generic ranitidine is no longer included in lawsuits." https://www.drugwatch.com/zantac/lawsuits/
Can you really put a limit on the liability here with GSK? Millions of Zantac prescriptions were issued. From perusing a US lawyers website, 'The level of NDMA found in pills is 30,000 times the safe limit of 90uG and NDMA is deliberately used to cause cancer in lab rats as its such a good carcinogen. ' https://www.shouselaw.com/torts/zantac/
US lawyers are looking for people with very common cancers - eventually 50% of the population get cancer, and with a history of using Zantac ... looking over the past mega litigation vioxx and roundup cases - they are still settling them! The Roundup cases with Bayer is the nearest situation to this - the FDA claimed it was safe for 40 years, then, later, there is some evidence of NHL cancer associated with its use, which emerges in meta studies, still debated by Bayer scientists. The multi million jury damages awards start flying and haven't stopped. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83y-b7XmS7w
I definately wrote a post on Cult. From memory it was on a PE of 40 at the peak of a pandemic bubble bought at 2.5 times sales. It was totally insane, but achieved the higher sales figures and SP MM wanted for his £800m bonus...
Ste2000 - See my numbers on the Cult purchase. The writedowns are coming. In the 2000 bubble the following bust and recession was GRIM... but having inflation of 12% to 18% to deal with like the horrific 1980s recession was just never a factor. The value of sterling and large government debts that needed financing were never a worry. Interest rates could be cut drastically to get us out of a slump and onto the housing bubble to 2007. Not this time. It could be way worse than the 2000 bubble and bust...
You mean my posting history where I have been relientlessly right while you have been tragically wrong? Very good idea to read my posts on THG in detail.
Hi Italian. I lived through that era. Your talking total and utter nonsense about the dot com era and revenue. I invested £10,000 in Telewest - what is now Virgin Media. It was a very similar setup to THG buying companies at mad prices during the peak of a bubble and grew Revenue like crazy - 30% plus rates ... My investment ended up at £150 quid because of the inevitable writedowns. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2002/mar/02/media1
Yes, the SP rose BEFORE the RNS about the supposed bids.
It was MAY 19th (Thursday) there was a RNS About bids coming in.
SP had climbed before from 90p to 103 on 10 May.
It gapped up from 117p on 19th May, to reach 140p opening 20th May and peaked at 160p on 26th.
Steady selling gradually drove it back down to 103p on 14 June.
But it was only on the 16th June a RNS stated Bids withdrawn etc...
On 2 Aug 10 Year Gilts were 1.8%.
Today 1 Sep its 10 Year Gilts yield 2.8%.
Inflation is over 12% and set to rise much further.
Have read Baileys plans on tackling inflation. He denies the huge sums he has printed has anything at all to do with it even as we have full employment, rising wages and rising houseprices.
Will only raise rates by small amounts in order 'not to destabilize the economy' So no .75% hike.
We have a possible sterling crisis unfolding in front of our eyes, but have had no comment from the BOE.
Bailey plans on continuing to use something called 'forwards guidance'- which is saying he might raise rates, if people ask for more pay rises and naughty inflation gets further out of control. This was ripped to shreds by Mervin King, ex-BOE governor as trying to talk inflation down without tacking any real action.
Fundamentally, You have to realise he is a creature of the Treasury.
They want to issue government debt at insanely low rates - this is really what is the driving force behind the BOE. Do you raise short term rates and induce a recession, or do you wait for the market to sell off UK debt, raise long term interest rates and the currency and create a depression?
THG don't own that building. The ICON campus etc.. is all owned by MM *NOT* THG.
Get the BASIC facts right!
To add to my prior comments. Wise to look at the capital structure in the published 2021 accounts. See the amount of warrants and convertible shares in the millions. My understanding is they will convert into the full issued price (160p?) whatever the market cap is. The lower the market cap the more devastating the conversion - potentially infinite dilution for ordinary shareholders and VERY heavy dilution forwards even if the company is still a going concern after the auditors finish.
Interesting - But LOOKERS in 2020 had the government schemes to help bail them out. The huge sums of money printed by Andrew Bailey and Richie Sunak meant there was soon a shortgage of cars and everything else. However, the management still had to do everything they could to gain liquidity, reduce the NET debt position and avoid losing control to the debtors.
"Bank funding
(From LOOKERS 2021 Annual Accounts : "Throughout the year the Board was focused on protecting the Group’s liquidity position and reducing the Revolving Credit Facility (RCF). As at 31 December 2021 the Group moved into a net funds position of £3.0m (2020: net debt of £40.7m). This reduction has been delivered through the exceptional trading performance, increased cost control and a robust approach to capital allocation"
I suggest this is an exception rather than the rule...
Well spotted WarrenBJr. Thats a great point.
All anyone has to do is to type in CVR (return) into the share price search box. It will bring up a DEAD AIM company called Convivality plc which went bust in weeks with no signs in the RNS or accounts.
Look at the RNS.
The Half Year Results on (RNS Feb 2018) show growing sales, slightly falling EBITDA and the usual blurb of targets, mergers etc... that you expect from a company worth hundreds of millions.
You will find there was no way for shareholders to see the trouble the company was heading for.
Even after the minor accounting issues and softened profits hit the RNS, no way would you have thought there was anything MAJOR wrong.
BUT *AFTER* the Temporary Suspension on AIM ..... suddenly PANDORAS BOX was opened....!
The company updated (14 March 2018) that there were further accounting issues - an unexpected liability, and the LOWERED EBITDA GUIDANCE affected thier BANKING COVENENTS (but still NOT TO WORRY!). The rest of the RNSs are the company stressing its not in breech of the CURRENT DEBT COVENENT (which only lasted for a month or so) while later desperately scrambling for funds, then placing itself in Administration then trying to sell itself. (all with very reassuring messages to shareholders not to worry thoughout)
A company that had a market cap of over £1/4 billion by AIM shareholders in Jan 2018, was 'temporarly suspended' to clear up some issues.. in March eventually sold to BESTWAY GROUP for just £7 million and change in APRIL (and the shareholders got nothing). The directors had walked away with millions.
(I think the last few chat forum posts are shareholders phoning the police reporting theft)
LESSIONS:
(1) You cannot trust any AIM Accounts or Companies.
(2) ALL the crap comes out *AFTER* the suspension. BEFORE "Its just a few problems - a few hiccups "- that can easily be overcome... !!!
(3) The HUGE IMPORTANCE OF DEBT COVENENTS. Any accounting change to revise EBITDA, major balancesheet items - assets, revenue, etc... will put future DEBT COVENENTS at risk, even if the company meets the current covnent rules - so the company HAS TO look for funds, sell equity etc... regardless of shareholders.
The key is this ; control after suspension goes from shareholders to satisfy debtholders once major accounting revisions/changes are made.
Yes, you would have saved a tone of money listening to me before... I have done nothing but give you basic facts... and not abuse.
If your read the RNS it is very significant - the auditors go after inventory value and revenue recognition. A huge amount of the assets on the balance sheet are inventory. It basically says the company is dodgy AF. Conviviality (CVR) in 2018, after huge revenue growth on thin margins with a distribution model that didn't work, got suddenly found a 30m tax bill which they couldn't pay. All the PI knew was both the CFO and CEO were buying over 100k each days before. It went from 130p to 0p on suspension for Accounting issues. The CEO made around £6m running the company with fake accounts overall on AIM I think.
Whats does it matter who owns the key critical infrastructure of THG.... You can't be serious. The fact is THG doesn't own them and MM does. That is not a co-incidence and gives huge undue leverage to MM whoever even dares think about buying THG.
I don't think a outside takeover/bidder is at all credible. It's just more groundless wishful thinking from the trapped shareholders. MM owns KEY vital infrastructure of the business. THG paids him millions in rent to operate and exist. What bidder can possibility recreate such key logistical capacity and operations? So any fantasy bidder will be beholden to MM after takeover, even if they ignore the failings of the business going into recession.
Ashley bought out brands for peanuts during a deep recession. The total opposite of THG!
We have ZERO revenue growth - a 9% shrinkage in real, inflation adjusted money terms. The one revenue growth area is injectables - which at 9% barely matched inflation, with negative growth in generics which have intense competition. Maybe its going to be a little better in 23 - doesn't sound like a lot better though. The trouble is the underlying signs aren't good - many of the key players have WALKED recently - both the CHAIR of remuneration and CEO. Is that because they are not seeing good things combined with the recent acquisitions? They seem to have a dire lack of pricing power with a dramatic collapse in profits. If the one cylinder still firing (only to match inflation) - injectables come under similar competition the SP will decline very dramatically.