Member Info for Murray888

Icecool, you said that you personally think the CEO guidance still holds for you.

Below from the RNS. One hell of a caveat for guidance to be held.

As a result, the Board expects that adjusted profit before tax for FY 2026 will be in line with the current market consensus (Company compiled analyst consensus for 2026 is adjusted PBT of £200m). This forecast excludes any impact from the ongoing CEO Review, the findings of which will be detailed on 24 September 2026 in the Half Year results.

Icecool, below from the RNS. If the commercial issues were resolved in 2024 as you stated, why in July 2026 are they addressing issues on new deals that should have been dealt with in 2024.

We are operating with greater financial and operating discipline, which means that we will not favour short-term performance at the expense of the company's long-term financial health. As such, we have renegotiated several deals with partners that did not meet our commercial requirements, resulting in a delay to completion of these deals. A number of those deals concluded in the first few days of July, and the balance of those deals are now expected to complete on improved terms during Q3. In addition, the decision was taken not to proceed with certain transactions due to their cash profile, with a number being reshaped to suit our requirements. The benefit from these is expected in H2.

BeenInTheSector, spot on about the commercial issues. If you have a culture of aggressively pricing contracts so that they meet the internal hurdles to get sign off from the board, so everybody hits the unit targets to be delivered and to earn the bonus, then the chickens are going to come home to roost. Also, government funding has never come through on time, there are constant delays, any RP can confirm about delays.

Icecool, now if you had worked at some of the biggest PLC house builders and then also at some of the largest RPs at a senior level, then I would say you had in-depth knowledge of the partnership model and the unforeseen issues that are a regular occurrence and how things don’t go according to plan when you are hoping for the best. Unforeseen issues are not a risk for a RP as they are cash rich but they can be for the other party if they are not.

Icecool, your statement below.

If guidance changes, you reassess the investment thesis. Simple.

All the people who have a higher average than the current share price and things don’t happen as you expect, will be forced to decide to sell at an even greater loss. I assume VTY being one of the most shorted stocks is down to the shorters not having studied all the data and just playing roulette betting.

I did say not yet in my post. Not too concerned at all with the position I hold here. Will not be moving a single pound of my position here into oil stocks to start with. On the contrary I will be increasing my position here.

You have £3m of subscription shares at 2.2p following the recent fundraise. The really positive thing is that since these additional shares were admitted the price has not yet finished below the 2.2p price.

Lifesab, since you keep thinking that it was good old Jimbo who created shareholder value at Amigo and he is doing the same here, let me give you actual figures to date.

Jimbo took over CHP in March 2025. So in 1 year 3 months he has created shareholder value by CHP being valued at £2m. Now we must not forget that Alba when it gets the banking licence will create immense shareholder value for CHP who own 5%. Alba at £100m val means CHP gets valued at another £5m more. Alba at £200m valuation is £10m to CHP valuation if the market agrees. And so on with the maths.

Craig took over Amigo 15 December and in six months the valuation is £33m. Even with the recent fund raise for £3m the current share price is more than the placing price.

For CHP to be valued at £33m like Craig has done at Amigo in six months that means Alba would need to achieve a valuation of £600m.

How many years do you think it will take Alba to achieve a £600m valuation so that CHP could be valued at £33m like Amigo is today?

Shorts at 14.93%. The issue for VTY is their massive current daily net debt position. The fact that they plan to be a £100m net cash one day in December is not helping their current situation. Government funding never comes through on time and if they have cash flow forecasted this and there is months delay for the funding to arrive either for VTY or their partners then their massive current daily net debt position may not be sustainable and this is without any other issues that may come to light in the next few months, like costs that have not been factored into contracts so that the margin met the internal company hurdles at the time.

Technically speaking, now a gold producer and not just an explorer.

Totally agree with you on your post Ricky.

Passing_Through, better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt. In your case, with your intellectual posts.

We just need Lifesab, Jim’s valet, to tell us how when Alba gets the licence and maybe after a year of trading could be valued at £100m, then how lucky the shareholders are with with a 5% stake valued at £5m. The maths is easy to work out the value of the CHP stake in Alba based on their potential valuation after a few years of trading as a bank with a licence. CHP is a vehicle for good old Jimbo to fund Alba and the shareholders to be fed some crumbs. He had never put shareholder value creation as his primary focus. Look at his past history. They are there to be used to achieve what he wants and then to take it private.

Jim went to Amigo to see if he could use it as a vehicle to do what he wanted with Alba etc. He decided that Vela would be less problematic to do as he wished because it had a weaker board and he didn’t have to deal with a shareholder action group. Surely with everything he has done with CHP, Alba stake, Aspire etc. the shareholder value he has created so far should be more than £3m? You obviously think that is shareholder value creation.

Lifesab, let me correct you again. It was under the founder and then chairman of Amigo, James Benamor followed by Stephan Wilcke who took over as chairman from Benamor that all the bad lending practices took place. Jonathan Roe took over after Stephan and it was his job to try and clear up the mess that they were in.

Lifesab, it was Jonathan Roe who steered the company and got Craig in. Good old Jim did not bring Craig in. Now you are intelligent enough to know that a RNS announcing that Jim was leaving would say some nice things about him. Best thing that happened to Amigo him leaving. Have a look at Jonathan Roe’s credentials and then you will understand who actually steered Amigo, who was responsible for bringing Craig in and how much shareholder value has been created there. Have a look at the price graphs while Jim was there as a consultant to see how much shareholder value was created. None. Now look at the price graphs from when Craig took over. It’s there in the RNSs.

Craig has created shareholder value. Company currently worth £30m with far less actual assets than CHP which is valued at £3m with the stake in Alba ,owning Aspire and other assets.

Lifesab, look at the RNSs and the share price graphs. Look at the share price movement from when Craig took over to what it is now. It wasn’t Jim who created shareholder value it was Craig from the moment he took over. Get your facts right.

Now let’s get to your point about comparing Amigo share price to CHP in your post as well. Amigo at the current share price is worth nearly £30m.

Would you like to tell me what CHP is worth at the current share price.

RachT2, for a seasoned investor who trades the spikes as you said on 80M, I can’t see any words of wisdom you have posted on any other share apart from 80M for the past six months at least. All people need to do is look at your posting history. You are consumed by 80M for some unhealthy reason and your life revolves around it. Mind you, it’s good to see your viewpoint as well.

Vistry’s average daily net debt was £734m in 2025. The average daily net debt will be higher for 2026 than it was in 2025.

When you compare that position with Morgan Sindall who are a contractor with a partnerships housing business, their daily net cash was £368m in 2025 and their daily net cash is likely to exceed £400m for 2026.

If the company culture was to be rather optimistic, knowingly, about the forecast/bottom line prices for market sale plots just so that the GDV for the site enabled all the internal hurdles like margin, ROCE, etc. to be met so that the board could sign off the purchase of the site, then let’s hope those attitudes by the same regional boards did not filter through to their partnership deals.