Member Info for Mumbles2021

Theo, I'm not getting involved in financing timelines. All that needs to be said has already been said, and the project is at the credit committee stage, with ABSA publicly announcing their support and the AFC disclosing their participation in the finance discussions at the Mining Indaba (a matter of documented fact). My wager was regarding whether the AFC are the previously undisclosed Pan African Development Bank; you still assure everyone on this forum that they are not. It's an easy bet; the answer is yes or no..... I don't see any need for parameters to be set other than a date we walk away if it hasn't been confirmed or otherwise.

Theo, I'm not sure we are talking about the same company here. Are you sure you aren't mixing the AFC up with another company? That's a rhetorical question. I know you are not, which, as usual, questions your motives for making the statement. And as usual, you throw out a statement as fact with no support. Leaving any rebuttals to be supported, or we end up in a pointless situation, he said, she said, but the original seemingly authoritative statement has already sowed the doubt.

Referring back to the AFC,, this is precisely the type of funding they get involved in

A few pages from the AFC website detail specific and general investment and financial tools they use to support their projects.

https://www.africafc.org/our-approach/the-solutions-we-deliver

https://www.africafc.org/our-impact/our-approach-to-impact

https://www.africafc.org/our-impact/impact-stories

Below is a list of mining projects in which they have already been involved, not including those in their current project pipeline.

The Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) has financed key mining projects across Africa through equity and debt, including:

Gold: Segilola (Nigeria), Baomahun ($55M, Sierra Leone), Tulu Kapi (Ethiopia)

Diamonds: Karowe (Botswana)

Bauxite: Bon Ami (Guinea)

Copper: Kamoa-Kakula ($150M loan, DRC)

Manganese: High Purity Manganese (Botswana)

Infrastructure: Lobito Atlantic Railway (Angola & DRC)

You can always rely on AS1971 to pollute the discourse; AS1971, You show up, add nothing, and leave. An Impressive commitment to irrelevance.

This is drafted far better than i can!!!

For the benefit of those following the discussion, it's worth addressing the persistent skepticism surrounding the financeability of the Ozango project—particularly from Theorist.

To be absolutely clear:

The African Finance Corporation (AFC) has publicly confirmed their involvement in the financing of the Ozango project.

At the Mining Indaba in South Africa, AFC presented a case study slide detailing the Ozango financing structure, making their participation explicit.

This is not speculation—it is fact, publicly presented by AFC itself.

Despite this, Theorist continues to cast doubt on the project’s financeability. While skepticism can be constructive, ignoring clear, documented facts is not.

AFC’s participation means the financing has undergone thorough due diligence and meets their investment criteria. The only real discussion at this stage should be around execution timelines, not whether the financing is real.

If AFC themselves are publicly stating their involvement, continued skepticism at this point is no longer an investment discussion—it’s a refusal to acknowledge facts.

For those looking at the actual financial reality, the situation is straightforward:

✅ AFC is involved.

✅ The financing structure has been publicly detailed.

✅ The financing aligns with AFC’s strategic interests in Angola.

Investors should consider the credibility of AFC’s direct confirmation over speculation that ignores these facts.

Theo.. further to my last,and your willingness to take my wager and appreciated. but time lines don’t form part of it, although i am willing to accept an expiry when we both walk away. (i suggest end of March). The discussion revolved around whether AFC are the financing party, and your assertion that no way would they participate. This was nothing to do with whether financing would come off, or FID would be declared, just the participation, or otherwise of the AFRICAN FINANCE CORPORATION

Continued....

$100 million is a great price for a suggested 20% equity share of the Ozango in-ground resource. Proven and probable reserves are based on 166,000 MT’s, at today's price of $60,000/MT, the in-ground valuation can be taken as USD 10 billion. Using conventional valuation methodology, the value of pre-financing can be between 5 and 15%, depending on the de-risking completed. Ozango is well towards the top end as far as work carried out. So, anything over 10% equity would be considered achievable in a bull market. Suppose Pensana has given up 20% and retains 64% of the equity as suggested. In that case, the FSDEA and AFC (it is AFC) will get a return from the proceeds generated by a $ billion of revenue each over the mine life, for a $ 50 million stake each (ALL AT TODAY's PRICING). The terms represent a discount of 50% of what could be achievable in a different risk environment. Even if they have extracted slightly better terms from Pensana, as long as it is over 51%, it’s still a good deal.

Theo, for the benefit of the posters on here, let's post my reasoning for my confidence in this financing round, as you have posted your lack of it, which is based purely on the character who chairs Pensana.

The AFC HQ and I have resided in the same city for 19 years. My present Nigeria home is less than a kilometre from the AFC headquarters building on Osborne Road, Ikoyi. Due to their investment profile and my previous job, our paths crossed reasonably regularly as my company, and they performed due diligence for financing and co-financing several projects. Some of these worked, and some didn't, but in determining what fits the AFC investment profile, I believe I am as well placed as anyone to make a reasonable judgement as to what they will or won’t invest in.

The Longonjo financing structure is driven by the Angolan sovereign wealth fund from Angola and South Africa, not by Pensana in London. However, Pensana provided the support, i.e., marketing and off-take contracts where required. Most, but not all, of the support comes from Tim George's team in Jo-burg.

The AFC has several large projects in Angola, most involving the Lobito corridor and electricity transfer lines, which amount to several hundred million USD, in addition to the Ozango Longonjo project. I don't see the AFC snubbing Ozango and the FSDEA, a strong institution of the host government, that is developing a diversification strategy away from the country's established revenue base due to the personality or record of one person (unjustified or not) who is not affecting this part of the project.

Regarding whether Ozango economics justifies the risk involved in a 160 million USD loan ( 80 million from the AFC)). current pricing (not anticipated future pricing which is forecast to be multiples higher) , the anticipated cash flow more from 20,000 Mts of MREC more than covers a 150% debt servicing criteria, the NdPr content justifying a 45% uplift, against the SMM quoted price, (which in itself is considered grossly understated compared to what is achievable outside China). Consequently, the debt coverage from cashflow is well over 200% for a 7-year loan facility of USD 160 million, even if the first two years incur interest during an initial payment moratorium, even at a rate of up to 15% p.a.. continued in next post

Theo, I think I missed the returned wine.

Gentlemen, it's a genuine offer, as the last one was, that I lost fair and square. And between us, we honoured the bet at the same time retaining the anonymity we wised to maintain.

Theo, We have ABSA confirming their participation in the debt portion of the finance package with credit approval for $80 million of debt or 50% of the $160 million loan. The AFC is putting up the other 50%, I don't believe that ABSA would embarrass themselves confirming their participation, provisos or not if not confident the balance of a syndicated loan, on which they are the book leader, was not going to come off.

The AFC, who previously insisted on being undisclosed, publicly used their involvement with Pensana and Ozango as a case study of how they were financing critical mineral projects in Africa. My previous post was a transcript of a slide from the AFC presentation, confirming that they are the party, previously undisclosed but described by Pensana, as the Pan African Infrastructure Development Bank.

As i understand it they have also participated in up to 50% of the 100 million equity package. Bringing funding up to 210 million,

ABSA has confirmed credit committee approval, FSDEA has already participated, and they own 25% of Pensana anyway, so I suggest they are on board…..AFC is the only institutional bank looking at this project, and whilst the numbers have not been published, the structure has. With the Loan and the equity, the AFC is potentially putting up half, or $130 million, of the 260 million financing package. The balance of 50 million comprises a $15 million loan from the FSDEA converting to equity and another $ 35 million to at least equal AFCs equity contribution.

This is 100% an AFC project. I'm willing to bet another half a case of Amarone on it…….Again!!!!!!……….. Do you want to take the bet again????

Go on, give me a chance to win my wine back!!!!!

Obviously, i cant post a photo on here, so the following is a transcript from the African Finance Corporations Indaba Presentation, it looks like something is being taken seriously to me

AFC Mining Indaba 2025 Presentation

**Case Study: Longonjo Rare Earths Project, Angola**

"PROJECT OVERVIEW & CONTEXT"

- Pensana Plc is raising funding for its **$216.5 million CAPEX project (Longonjo)** to be financed by **debt and equity**.

- AFC is proposing to **participate in both debt and equity instruments**, alongside ABSA and FSDEA; AFC acts as **Mandated Lead Arranger (MLA)**.

- Longonjo is a **Rare Earth Elements (REEs) project located in Angola**.

- The project involves the **construction of the mine and a processing plant** to produce **approximately 20,000 tonnes per annum of Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREC)** to supply the **renewable energy and EV markets**.

- The project is **one of only three with a JORC Reserve exceeding 100,000 tonnes of NdPr**.

"AFC EXECUTION APPROACH"

- **Pensana Plc is an LSE-listed REEs exploration and development company** with a **market capitalization of $95.4 million (as of January 31, 2024).**

- **Ozango Minerals (Ozango) owns, develops, and operates Longonjo.**

- **Pensana owns 84% of Ozango.**

- **FSDEA owns 25% of Pensana and 10% of Ozango.**

- Pensana has **invested approximately $70 million into the project over the last five years**.

- AFC has adopted a **cross-sector collaboration approach** for the project:

- **Evaluating a transmission line investment** to support the mine’s power supply.

- Leveraging **existing capacity along the Lobito Corridor**, where AFC’s **Project Development and Financial Advisory teams have ongoing transactions**.

"PROJECT’S IMPACT"

- **Longonjo is on the shortlist of the recently established Global Security Partnership**, which includes AFC as a **financing partner**.

- The **U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) granted $3.4 million in 2024** to support feasibility studies for **adding downstream refining in Angola**.

- The plant is **capable of producing up to 2,500 tonnes per annum (tpa) of NdPr oxides**, representing **5% of global demand (2023 levels)** and serving the **EV and renewable power markets**.

- **Economic and Employment Impact:**

- The investment will **create 654+ jobs**, with **500+ during operations**.

- Employment will follow the **Angolanisation Principle**, ensuring that **at least 70% of the workforce is Angolan**.

- **Environmental and CO₂ Impact:**

- The **NdPr produced can be converted into approximately 10,000 tonnes of NdFeB magnets**.

- These magnets can be **used in 5 million mid-sized EVs or 12.3 GW of wind capacity**.

- This results in an estimated **carbon savings of:**

- **729,000 tCO₂ per year if used in turbines.**

- **99,000 tCO₂ per year if used in EVs.**

The African Finance Corporation at Mining Indaba in Jo'burg revealed that the AFC is the previously undisclosed Pan African Infrastructure Development Bank providing equity to the project together with the FSDEA and is also the other 50% of the syndicated loan arranged by ABSA and the subject of an RNS on 23rd January.

Theo is bored and looking to wind up the usual suspects. Take it for what it is. Let’s be honest the SP has more ups and downs than. Alton Towers. Someone loves the volatility. As all traders do

Theo he said none of that; most of what you say is a complete fabrication. Considering I usually respect your posts even if they have an ulterior purpose. You have never outright lied. I'm a little disappointed, to be honest.

All the lenders in the term sheet are still active, as was confirmed at the AGM; Saltend is still on the cards, although they have been asked and paid by the DFC to consider other options. An analyst report is expected to be released shortly.

DS22, you asked if a 100% increase in 2 and a bit months was good or bad; going by AS1971 opinion, it is 4 times as good as a 25% drop..... other than that, readers were trying to see the hidden meaning in the question, as most would consider a 100% in 2 and a bit months, more than satisfactory probably, consequently a very rhetorical question. Despite AS1971's focus on the 25% drop from the yearly high, we are still 90% up from 2 and a bit months ago. From Jan 1, PRE is 20% up, Lynas is 2.79% down, MP is 5.85% up, Mkango is 12% down, Arafura 31% down, Rainbow 16% down, and so on. Of all the rare earth junior miners, there is much more confidence in Pensana. To be fair to MP and Lynas, their market caps have only gone from obscene to spectacular!!!!

Pensana wont have to raise any equity at PLC level, they are giving some equity of the 84% they own at OPCO level. PA has metioned the PRE share will reduce to in the the region of 65%

And the biggest percentage climber in the rare earth sector year to date including MP and Lynas……

AS1971, at the moment 10% up in a morning, I ordinarily wouldn’t say anything, but as you want to highlight a 25% drop in a week, thought it only right to do so for balance.

AS, I don’t normally comment personally on any of the posters on this page. Preferring to engage in discussion and fact based rebuttal. In your case I find you toxic and unnecessarily offensive and negative, without advising why. This share has had its issues, and the lack of updates over the last few months is one of the major ones. However your manner of posting personal attacks dont add any value, and I can see how they help your own state of mind. But carry on if it makes you feel better. Personally I think a large dose of Prozac or an enormous spl*ffwould serve you better

MAA86, Believe me, my first draft was much shorter.