VGM7 Aug 2011 12:13
Vatakuola Gold Mines* (VGM)
Following a trend of disappointing production downgrades, which has ultimately seen management revise down full year production from 75,000 ounces to 55,000 ounces, Fijian focused Vatukoula Gold Mines is currently unloved by the markets. The long term plan here is for the company to deliver annualised production output of 100,000 ounces a year. But production misses and the fact that the company also recently raised funds at 125p, what we see as a depressed level, has gone a long way to help the market to see Vatukoula in a very bad light.
There is the potential here for continued short-term share price weakness given the fact that sentiment is not on the company's side. But it is our view, highlighted by boardroom buying, that by December 2011 the company should be producing Gold at an annualised rate of 100,000 ounces. At 100,000 ounces cash costs are expected to fall to circa $880 which, assuming a (conservative) $1,500 gold price, will generate cash of approximately 37.7 million pounds.
Currently capitalised at 80.4 million pounds Vatukoula is therefore trading on a projected multiple of just over two. We would say that five times forecast cash flow would be more appropriate. But one should also note that there is further upside here in regard to the costs of production and exploration targets as a new biomass power plant would see cash costs per ounce reduced by $140/oz and the sites surrounding the current operations are relatively unexplored. And again, this is a high cost producer so the operational gearing from rising gold prices is dramatic.
Vatukoula therefore offers a further opportunity to get in before the crowd and take advantage of a depressed valuation a head of news of production ramp up due towards the end of the year. A company such as Vatukoula will either get re-rated as it delivers production in line with its guidance or a predator will look to take it out.