TET5 Dec 2011 07:23
Prospects
The Group has seen significant weakness in RC Treatt's order book over the last few months and there is a return to the short term de-stocking practices of two years ago which has been increased by the impact of the current global economic climate. This, coupled with falling raw material prices, does mean that the outlook for 2012 is uncertain.
Over the next few months, orange oil prices are expected to fall but the extent of the likely fall is unclear. However, the Group has many years' experience of managing its risk in periods of price volatility and so, whilst some stock losses are inevitable, this will relate mainly to 'pipeline' inventory and will be controllable.
The year ended 30 September 2011 was characterised by the significant improvements in Earthoil and Treatt USA and these should be consolidated upon over the next twelve months. At R.C. Treatt, however, the final quarter of last year saw a slow-down in activity which has continued into this financial year, where the impact of de-stocking has led to falling raw material prices, lower levels of sales and reduced margins. We do not now anticipate orders picking up much until mid-2012, especially for R.C. Treatt whose customers operate in many of the territories which are currently experiencing significant economic weakness. Consequently, the Board believe that pre-tax profits for the year ended 30 September 2012 will be significantly lower than was previously thought.