TRE14 Dec 2011 19:53
Trading Emissions (TRE) is a closed end investment company that specialises in renewable energy projects and emissions instruments such as carbon credits. As readers are no doubt aware, the carbon credit market is subject to considerable uncertainty and volatility, and I would never have been attracted to such a stock in the normal scheme of things. However, back in 2010 Trading Emissions decided to do the sensible thing and unwind its exposure to carbon credits - and hopefully net shareholders a considerable return on the way.
To these ends the company appointed advisers to explore the sale of assets within its private equity portfolio and it soon emerged that the company had attracted potential buyers both for its private equity portfolio and its carbon credit portfolio. However, the significant falls in carbon credit prices has scuppered these deals of late and TRE's share price has crashed.
Even in a worst case scenario - which assumes the carbon price goes to zero, private equity were written down by a further 50% and wind-up costs were £10 million - broker Peel Hunt has estimated that NAV would still be 28p per share. The broker added, "It is possible that TRE might be able to declare force majeure on a dysfunctional carbon market (could add 20p / share at its best), or the carbon market could rebound as a result of government action (floor price / taxation / change to terms), although the latter is looking increasingly unlikely." The broker's target price is 38p per share.
I also note the recent purchase by Simon Shaw of TRE investment manager EEA Fund Management of 250,000 shares at 26.5p. Assuming that the worst case scenario is unlikely, there could be some serious upside here in due course.