Member Info for Mulder

So from this: -

ETRP $650 AISC
BTRP $750 AISC
Baberton mines 80,000 'below $1,000' AISC
Elikhulu already stated as $650-$700 AISC

Sheba 'low cost, low capital requirement'
Egoli on the back burner

P:B ratio 0.60

If we take out all intangibles and goodwill we still get a price around 130p

On top of this why would Mediclinic bid/offer 315p if this is really only worth half that - which is what the market is currently trying to tell us!

Breaking Baberton down further gross profit was £7.5M in H1 but £13.4M in H2
That is quite some difference.
The reasoning for this is not given but the weakening rand must be a major factor.

If H2 margins and performance can be repeated for full year 2018-19 then hedgehogg we could be looking at £55M gross profit and a forward P/E of around 3. Finance costs were £3M in the year to 30/6/18.

Also worth noting ZAR gold price has gone from 16,000ZAR/oz in H1 to around 18,000ZAR/oz in the past month. Must help offset the fall in gold price.

What do you make of the Baberton mine profit? Not BTRP but the mine itself. I expected it to only break even last year. We all know BTRP is low cost.

Loots said the Sheba update will be in Feb I believe.

Do we think the results to 30th June included the full costs of Elikhulu?

Any further costs in July prior to commissioning in August?
The Baberton rebels have also got their pay rise so hopefully will keep their heads down now.

A gross profit of £50M equates to approx 2.8p EPS so a current forward P/E of around 3.

This excludes finance costs of course.

Gold is at multi year lows.
Even a rise back to 1300-1350 USD would increase that number above significantly.

Not sure how but Baberton turned a gross profit of £20M. Roughly half of this will be from BTRP - no cash costs given for this disappointingly or breakdown but it means the main Baberton mine itself is turning a decent profit of around £10M.

The rand has weakened considerably since then.

2018-19 gross profit projections
Baberton including BTRP £20M
Elikhulu £21M
ETRP £6M

The Baberton profit has surprised me.
If Cobus does his job right PAF could be hitting close to £50M gross profit.

Sheba and Egoli will no doubt be funded from a placing though and I reckon we are already seeing some institutions buying in judging by JSE.

You're all forgetting 3 months have passed since then.

Closed 5% below the equivalent close JSE price. Ridiculous.

& yet the stupid board and current CEO turned down 315p just a few months ago. They all deserve the sack.
Happens again and again. These people deserve no wages at all.

163 ZAR
+6.5%
2.7Bn volume

Institutions buying in probably. Finally.

Equates to 8.3p

Yes but he was the CFO when Evander was acquired from Harmony in 2013. He is culpable and this is not something that can just be brushed under the carpet. Anyway he will find out at the AGM in November. He comes across as a weak, nervous and soft CEO. The IG interview confirmed this. Mantashe has him wrapped around his little finger.

A CEO with a character like Anglo's Cutifani is sorely needed at PAF. I will be voting against Cobus' re-election.

& yet people will still argue that shorters do not control a share price or manipulate the markets! They are apparently 'good' for the market. Not for the ordinary PI.

The insider trading scum have obviously got scared of something - most likely this posted in FT alphaville this morning: -

(Bloomberg) -- Spire Healthcare holders are said to be receptive to a new takeover approach from Mediclinic even if a bid were at a lower price than the previous offer, DealReporter writes, citing three unidentified minority shareholders of Spire.

One minority holder is quoted as saying a price “just north of GBP2.50 would probably be acceptable”

A rise like this is due to shorts closing.

The CEO admitted he got things wrong last Xmas. Over discounting being one. Majority of profits have always been made in Dec/Jan.

I may be tempting fate but I can not see this Xmas being as bad as last. EPS could easily rebound to 3p-4p giving an absurd current P/E of just 3.

Update**
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45543057
Sports Direct has denied claims that it wants struggling retailer Debenhams to collapse so it can buy it cheaply.
Reports had suggested Sports Direct boss Mike Ashley could block Debenhams attempt to raise cash by selling its department store chain Magasin du Nord.

A spokesperson said the suggestion was "irresponsible and incorrect".

.................................................................................................................
Really?
Who is Ashley trying to kid?
The Debenhams source was spot on and the board are finally on to him.

Ashley exposed as the scum he is. I sincerely hope he does not get Debenhams on the cheap like he has with HoF. We all now know his grand plan and hidden motives. We have suspected his dirty plans for months but they are now confirmed. Ashley should just f*** off and must explain his dealings to the authorities. Possible links to short selling hedge funds especially Odey must also be thoroughly investigated.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/debenhams-deal-for-magasin-du-nord-in-jeopardy-8ntsn8cxf
A source close to Debenhams suggested that Ashley was interested in forcing the business into administration so he could buy it cheaply and merge it with House of Fraser.

PAF E-mail Investor Relations contacts

execpa@paf.co.za

phil.dexter@corpserv.co.uk

Not to mention the upgrades at Sheba (target 30000oz at 650 aisc) and don't forget Egoli.

Are these reflected in the balance sheet?

As for dividend it is a tight one but remember it is not paid until late December.

In any event I suspect the AGM in London in November wi be a fiery one and Cobus will have to face the music.