EDISON Research/NAV 11.8p25 Jul 2018 16:33
Elikhulu compensates for EGM
In the longer term, the development of Elikhulu should increase output to a steady-state level of c 181koz and, as such, it will largely replace production lost from Evander underground – albeit at a much higher margin.
Valuation: On a rising trend again
Updating our long-term forecasts, our headline absolute valuation of PAF has risen by 0.42p to 13.01p. Including new projects and other assets, however, our all-in valuation has risen by 0.96p to 17.53p plus the value of c 20.1m underground Witwatersrand ounces, which could lie anywhere in the range 0.17-4.15p per share, depending on market conditions.
At the same time, if PAF’s average price to normalised current year EPS ratio of 9.7x in the period FY10-17 is applied to our forecasts, then its share price should be 15.1p in FY19 and 18.7p in FY20. In addition, it remains cheaper than its South African- and London-listed gold mining peers on at least 41% of valuation measures on the basis of our forecasts, or 58% on the basis of consensus forecasts.
Based on our assumptions, its FY19 dividend yield is also the third-highest of the 65 ostensibly precious metals’ companies paying dividends (see Exhibit 11).
**It is also trading below its interim book value of 11.8p per share (H118).
https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/pan-african-resources438045/preview/