Member Info for mrtibbles

If anyone cares to check back you will find that Cowichan has posted some very positive information about Centamin through some difficult times

It seems that unfortunately the CEY directors performance awards aren't linked to the share price performance.

iIhave pointed out several times that directors have to comply with FCA rules regarding share purchases,

No one is expecting them to break the rules, but to buy shares when they are allowed.

https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/director-dealings-important-role-stock-picking/

Any criticism i have made Centamin aware of, so has Cowichan come to that.

Just like Cowichan I am more than happy to be proven wrong, but its up to the company to improve and deliver more than just promises, the market is also waiting to be convinced!

https://tinyurl.com/k56r8m3y

From a well respected mining analyst

As I pointed out in my original notes, Centamin management fell behind with waste stripping which ultimately resulted in the pit wall failure. Current management is now fixing that having appointed a mining contractor for the extra stripping.

The company is going through short term hardship, but will be rewarded in the next few years.

I agree with your friends sentiments on Burkina Faso projects, but am not that positive about Doropo. At the indicated grade, it is not really a dripping roast!. It may well be given the go-ahead, but will likely NOT add substantial to company value!

Likely much better to invest in near mine exploration,as turning any discoveries there to account will be much easier and cheaper!

Of course the single asset nature is a draw-back and makes Centamin more risky.

This has however been the case for years on end and did not dissuade many from investing.

Now investors will have to weight this against the improving prospects which the market does not seem to have discounted yet?

It is personal choice call, but in my opinion Centamin now compares well to others. at laest shareholders know their problems, with other miners you don't know!

One can only assume from the reluctance of the CEO & CFO to put some of their own 'Skin in the game" that they are aware at best Doropo will be a mediocre investment, at worst anther money pit that will be abandoned!

Looking back- Seeking Alpha 15 Dec 2021,

Centamin Egypt released its updated life of mine plan last week, with the highlight being a ~1.0 million ounce increase in gold reserves at Sukari, supporting a 12-year mine life.

Meanwhile, the company has increased its cost savings program to $150 million from $100 million previously, with a goal to deliver on this by 2024.

However, while this represented a major boost in reserves,

Centamin uses a much higher average realized gold price assumption than peers, and Doropo production still looks to be years away.

So, while Centamin is a solid company at a reasonable valuation, it is still a single-asset producer and will be until 2025, making it a much riskier bet than its peers.

Investors in the Gold Miners Index (GDX) have endured another rough year, with the ETF down 15% year-to-date. Unfortunately, Centamin (Centamin Egypt) (OTCPK:CELTF), one of the sector's highest-dividend payers, has not been a sanctuary, sliding 33% year-to-date, more than offsetting the mid-single-digit dividend yield. The good news is that the company has recently announced a boost to mineral reserves and seems confident to return to its previous ~500,000-ounce production profile while driving cost savings. However, while Centamin is a decent miner at a reasonable valuation, I see a much higher risk to owning single-asset producers.

Centamin Egypt released an updated reserve report last week, reporting a ~1.0 million-ounce increase in its mineral reserve base to 5.8 million ounces of gold. This was driven by very successful resource conversion underground and changes in the open-pit mine design, with both grade and ounces up sharply vs. the year-end 2020 reserve report. The current mine plan supports a ~460,000-ounce production profile over 12 years, but Centamin appears confident it can beat these figures, and it has the cash position (~$250 million) to support aggressive resource growth and cost savings to combat inflationary pressures. Let's take a closer look below:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474841-centamin-stock-potential-takeover-target-if-weakness-persists

Hi Cowichan,

Then why aren't the CEO & CFO keen to pick up a bargain to help the company that is already more than amply rewarding them?

SKIN IN THE GAME

Director share ownership is known as ‘skin in the game’ and means their interests are aligned with shareholders’. Theoretically, if a CEO has a lot of their own money tied up in stock, they may not make reckless decisions which could endanger the business. They enjoy the rewards of good business performance and are punished – alongside normal shareholders – if events turn sour.

https://rb.gy/k28r21

Chief financial officers (CFOs) of public companies are required to report when they buy or sell shares of their company's stock to the Securities and Exchange Commission. This page uses SEC Form 4 data to identify which CFOs are buying shares of their company's stock, indicating they are bullish enough about the company they work for to bet their own money on its future growth.

https://rb.gy/bcosz2

I'm sure in many respects that is the case, just like the "chimps" man is rarely satisfied with one or two bananas he wants to grab just a few more!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBAc2RdhP8c

But to be fair some were following the views expressed by tne majority of analysts at the time

GATA has collected and published dozens of documents showing Western treasury and central bank efforts to intervene both openly and surreptitiously against a free market in gold. GATA has held four international conferences: in Durban, South Africa, in 2001; in Dawson City, Yukon Territory, Canada, in 2006; in Washington, D.C., in 2008, and in London in 2011.

GATA's Internet site is www.GATA.org.

GATA is recognized by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service as a tax-exempt educational and civil rights organization under Section 501-c-3 of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code and is grateful for donations to sustain its work.

https://www.gata.org/about

Contact GATA at Info@GATA.org.

Chris Powell, secretary and treasurer of GATA to get the facts of this alleged manipulation.

You do see this language turn up in central banker comments occasionally. They want orderly changes in the markets. They don't want any sudden explosions or collapses but they try to manage the markets so that things go up slowly or go down slowly. I think that's basically what's going on with gold here.

How high should gold then be right now?

Powell: That's a wonderful question. I myself think that we don't have any clue what the market value of gold is because the gold price has been suppressed so long. We've probably not, in anyone's lifetime, had a free market in gold. And central bank interventions in the markets now are so pervasive that I don't think we really know what the free market price of anything is.

https://tinyurl.com/2upncfnc

Who will buy more than $1.7TN in US Treasury bonds and whether the golden elephant in the room is being ignored as safe haven inflows boost gold’s price?

As 2023 draws to a close, the precious metals expert explains how Comex paper prices can no longer be relied on to keep the price of physical gold artificially low: the game has changed and the gold reevaluation has begun.

https://tinyurl.com/yc8f5c9s

I'll drink to that!

So much depends on the next quarter delivering on at least the output predicted!

So I shall be leaving the golden flip flops in the pawn shop for now!

Lets hope I have to get them out sooner rather than later!

September was another banner month for gold purchases by the world’s central banks, according to Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst, EMEA at the World Gold Council.

“Reported global central bank gold reserves, via the IMF and publicly available sources, rose by a net 77t in September,” Gopaul said in an update on Thursday. “Gross sales (1t) were dwarfed by gross purchases (78t), highlighting the strength of buying.”

https://tinyurl.com/ykaa52kc

Hi Dasut,

Thank you for your explanation of the sequence of events and your summing up of how and why the good times abruptly rolled over into a much more challenging and a far less rewarding reality check.of the past several years , I doubt the times will ever be as good again,but hopefully before too long things will become somewhat easier and more profitable!

Hi Dasut,

Great pity that Trevor Schultz didn't keep running things!

Fair comments Dasut,

I have submitted the qusrtion to Centamin IR anyway, no reply as yet.

Tibbs

Hi Dasut

Considering you past processional involvement and knowledge of Sukari an very glad that you should feel that optimistic, lets hope your gut feelings are justified this time!

This needs an explanation Re discussions to alter the original arrangement?

The Annual Report shows payments/disbursements as follows:

$35M EMRA profit share

$24M Egypt royalties

$58M shareholders

So a pretty even split last year -

There is a lot of $ being spent and then 'capitalized' via the Capital waste clearing as non-sustaining the EMRA does have the opportunity to allow or deny a portion, thus Centamin not being able to recoup it, resulting in a payback schedule to the EMRA?

IF such a discussion is ongoing for a significant amount (i.e. if the EMRA demanded Centamin only be able to capitalize a stripping amount equal to the original LOM plan of 5.3 to 1 - I would expect CEO Horgan would be required need to make a clear announcement to shareholders of such a cost-recovery disallowance.

Traditionally these are the kind of things that get buried into the fine print of the annual report see an example on page 152 labelled key audit matter here:

https://www.centamin.com/media/2940/centamin-ar22.pdf

There is more details on the hows and whys regarding stripping costs being allocated as capital on page 182 - where it also notes that the rise in such allocations was deemed as significant!

So this would seems to raise a red flag at the EMRA) 2021 being $59M and 2022 being $141M?

There was something in the report about the 15 year tax holiday coming to and end in 2025 but it also says that PGM will submit a 15 year extension as well. IDK how a 50/50 profit split agreement could also be expected to pay income taxes and why such a holiday and extension would be needed - but I suspect it's not relevant to the share price yet.?

The politicians have jumped on the EV wagon for a quick fix, unfortunately it isn't!, there may be far better alternatives!

THE BIG EV LIE. Why They Won't Save the Planet & All About Dirty Electricity | TheCarGuys.tv

https://rb.gy/spg3o

Toyota have a better alternative

https://rb.gy/7a42o

https://rb.gy/lai2v

https://rb.gy/spg3o

Mr Gnome,

In many respects the state of the financial merry-go around aspects of our world today are worse than they were back in the 1970's because the corrupt and greedy buggers that run it have created ever more faster, complicated and sophisticated systems to keep the general public ignorant of how it functions but still paying the heavy price to keep the merry-go-round turning!

But I do agree that enjoying some hu,our at times may help to lift everyone's spirits, including Centamin shareholders!

Enjoy!

For Ozzie's https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ojhtq51Ya8

Specially for Cowichan! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FshU58nI0Ts

Sport might help? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgSzGIkFq2A

Looking on the bright side at least with Centamin nearer the bottom it doesn't have so far to fall !

Hi Dasut,

I agree no magic wand could fix Sukari, but that aside if a few would be suitors expressed interest in buying out Centamin it may at least be a catalyst to invigorate the share price or at the very least encourage others to look at the true potential and value of Centamin.

Hi Paul,

i honestly don't know. what I do know is though that it seems that those running mining companies , indeed most plc's always seem to do very well even in the bad times and do even better in the good times, despite being paid very handsomely they get awarded bonuses when tomes are bad and even more when tomes are good and all for just for what they are paid to do anyway.

Of course its not just industry now our chancellor Jeremy Hint who has frozen the income tax threshold for most ordinary people for the next six years wants to lift the cap off bankers bonuses, the very ones who who are usually responsibly for most of the financial crises and whom the ordinary people have to bail out time and time again!

Tibbs

Hi Paul, fair comments , those times seem so long ago now and show how wrong one can be at times, especially when it comes to knowing who really has integrity.

Dasut also has a point about whoever took over Centamin as Sukari was in a bad state, but then Endeavour also has its problems!

The presentation was OK and they did try and tackle most of the questions (there were a lot!), although possibly blaming the market for the lack of share price performance is an easy ‘out’ and the value catalysts looking forward seem OK ,but not massively value changing, unless there are things yet to be disclosed.

Martin and Ross are well paid execs – look at the annual report and you will see what they earn, so they should buy when they can, but that said that they are so often ‘inside’ so it may be difficult for them to do that., or maybe what they see from the inside makes them want to keep their compensation in cash…who knows?!

Fine talk ,but I'll wager that Sisi won't be in the front line he will be leading from the rear!

"If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rblfKREj50o