Gold Price30 Jan 2019 15:18
" We remain positive on gold," says London bullion bank HSBC's chief precious metals analyst James Steel, because "financial market volatility is up compared to last year.
"If you see equity, financial market volatility, indicating a degree of investor uncertainty, that would explain why gold has become more popular in the last couple of months."
"Whilst markets have factored in some of the downside risks of Brexit and US-China trade wars," says the London Bullion Market Association – today presenting its 2019 gold-price forecast survey of professional analysts – "other factors such the level of US real interest rates, strength/weakness of the Dollar, the likely impact of geopolitical factors and the pace of global economic growth continue to provide uncertainty."
"Gold rallies are more likely to be sustained if investor demand is resilient and broad-based," says the new Q4 2018 data and analysis from Refinitiv – formerly the data and risk division of global news agency Thomson Reuters.
"[But] while ETF and bar and coin demand is expected to see a return to growth, physical markets are likely to be subdued due to the higher price level."
With Chinese Yuan gold prices today reaching their highest since April 2017, prices for consumers in No.2 demand nation India today neared fresh all-time record highs according to the Economic Times, with import duty and the 3% GST sales tax taking the price of 99.5% fine jewelry up to 33,815 Rupees per 10 grams in Mumbai's Zaveri Bazaar.
Back in London's wholesale bullion market, silver meantime tracked gold prices higher and then lower ahead of the US Fed interest-rate decision on Wednesday, peaking within 2 cents of $16 per ounce – the highest Dollar price since July.
Platinum prices struggled in contrast, slipping back below last week's closing level at $818 per ounce.
Silver prices are, on today's average LBMA forecast, expected to show a 3.6% rise across 2019 – hitting a peak sometime this year at $17.99 – while platinum prices will fall nearly $30 to average $851 per ounce.
Already slipping 3.1% so far this New Year from 2018's record-high annual average of $1029, palladium is seen rising by almost one-quarter across 2019 on average, extending its surge on a global deficit of supply to meet demand.
"[But] as the trade war drags on," cautions French investment bank Natixis' Bernard Dahdah – the most bearish palladium forecaster for 2019 with a view of just $900 per ounce – "we expect weaker economic growth and [auto] sales in both the US and China.
"The biggest risk to prices [will come] from Russian state reserve sales."
Widely expected to bring no change to Dollar interest rates, today's US Fed decision comes as UK Prime Minister Theresa May prepares to head back to Brussels in a bid to renegotiate the 'Irish backstop' element of the UK's withdrawal agreement with the European Union, rejected in favor of unnamed "alternative arrangements" by a narrow majorit