The court case from 201523 Sep 2019 11:23
Some of the long time holders on here will remember our old friend "Sinnerthesaint" who contributed some really informative posts over the years before moving on because he didn't see an end to the court case anytime soon!
Sinner quite an authority on company law and legal issues so thought some of the newer members on here may find this post from 2015 interesting.
I did pass Siiners view onto the Centamin IR unit at that time for comment, none were received back though.
"'Concession Agreement Law 222' is still in place, uncontested" - It is being contested by Al-Fakharany, this is his appeal as part of the case Al-F vs EMRA.
"The question would be how large an area both parties are likely to agree to. - 160km2 or less or more" - The parties in question here being EMRA and Centamin, both parties already agree on 160 sqKm. Remember, it is Al-F who by trying to put the whole concession agreement into question has unravelled a mystery in the original court with regards to the contract.
"I'm surprised this step hasn't already been taken as an expedient to bringing it all to an end" - As I explained above, unless there is some kind of settlement with Al-F, then it doesn't matter if Centamin and EMRA agrees, disagrees or re-agrees a new area.
I believe that Al-F will lose appeal on Concession Agreement as that was a law set by parliament. Issues with the contract itself, if the court decides there are any, will probably range between a special committee including Minister of Justice, Investment etc .. resolving it or it being kicked back to parliament (This could be dealt with by Sisi but with reference to his behaviours, I believe he will leave it for parliament).
I realise fully that this view point throws a thousand more questions .. such as what happens in the meantime, can the mine close .. what happens to PGM etc etc .. But before all this gets answered, I believe there is one important point to take notice of and that is Centamin is unlikely to agree on much less than 160 sqKm. and that is because of the high chance they'd win the case in an international court. Good strategy for very long term holders but short term holders will probably highly suffer.
All this however will not tell us how the price will behave in the market in the short-term.