Member Info for mrtibbles

Good Point Rebess!

I thought you may like to see the official response from Centamin

It is being taken very seriously at Sukari, particularly the movements of the expats in particular. At the moment there are no incidents, and everyone is regularly checked. But I don’t think anyone may be immune to this – the heat at Sukari is a benefit of course, as COVID-19 tends to be colder climates, but there is no complacency!

Amazing how they can step in when it suits them!
Why not just let the market find its own level?

Fair comments Sotolo, especially about a healthy workforce!
Even though Sukari is in a a secure military controlled zone 900km from Cairo obviously there are comings and goings to the mine by workers changing shifts, other visitors and suppliers on a regular basis.

I appreciate that their are some who have no time for A.M. or Kenesis so before you post your displeasure with either or complain that I have posted this link I make no apology, just don't watch the video below!
However for anyone who is interested in what is happening to precious metals prices at the moment then you may find what Andrew has to say later on in this video of interest after the events on Friday 06.03.2020

Here is Andrew Maguire's statement last Tuesday of the action around the last 2 weeks & what to expect
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KI5P3x9lU3s&feature=youtu.be

Supercharger,
When last I sold out of Tullow in 2012 they were around £14, I appreciate that tat present the oil price is down and that Boris's mate is shorting the stock to kingdom come, although Tullow's present price of 24p does seem a bit of a bargain, unless of course there is something very wrong in the company?
Still looking on the bright side a dropping oil price may be good for Centamin (cheaper diesel).\

As an former local government officer who has never seen a private company improve or run any council service at less cost then I fail to see how anyone can could invest in Capita with a clear conscience, the company lacks integrity, treats its staff appallingly and has failed to deliver on its promises time and time again.
As an alternative investment in these troubled times it may be worth considering some alternative to Capita, gold mining fir instance, but as always do your own research.
https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/news/article/460/statement_on_capita_contract
https://www.theguardian.com/local-government-network/2014/jan/06/birmingham-council-capita-contract-open-cuts
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=RXW5DwAAQBAJ&pg=PT124&lpg=PT124&dq=capita+makes+a+mess+of+municipal+services+in+birmingham&source=bl&ots=slZeLh3hSh&sig=ACfU3U0jcVANBO87pkAtp2viBPhkTjLxSg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiGhqXVqIfoAhWuQ0EAHVHqCLIQ6AEwA3oECAYQAQ#v=onepage&q=capita%20makes%20a%20mess%20of%20municipal%20services%20in%20birmingham&f=false

not unusual for the drop at close on a Friday afternoon, lots of CFD holders close out if there is a risk of a big gap down before the opening on Monday mornings especially in times of uncertainty (Covid-19, Boris in No 10, Trumpo in White House) unrest in Syria ,etc ,etc.
Remember stop losses are viewable by the MM so they are no protection!

Hi ,
I only had a look at this board out of interest because one of our (Cey )Centamin group stated they held Tullow oil, I was quite shocked when I saw today's share price because it was around £!4 when I sold out in 2012.
I appreciate that the oil price is down at the present and that Boris's mate is shorting this stock to Kingdom come. but even so this share price seems very low indeed.
Perhaps Tullow share holders ought to consider asking the regulator to investigate what is going on with the accounting?

Just noticed that noticed that one of the group over on the Centamin forum expressing the view that Capita was going to come good?
As an former local government officer who has never seen a private company improve or run any council service at less cost then I have to disagree, I fail to see how anyone can could invest in Capita with a clear conscience, the company lacks integrity, treats its staff appallingly and has failed to deliver on its promises time and time again.
As an alternative investment in these troubled times it may be worth considering some alternative to Capita, gold mining fir instance, but as always do your own research.

https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/news/article/460/statement_on_capita_contract
https://www.theguardian.com/local-government-network/2014/jan/06/birmingham-council-capita-contract-open-cuts
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=RXW5DwAAQBAJ&pg=PT124&lpg=PT124&dq=capita+makes+a+mess+of+municipal+services+in+birmingham&source=bl&ots=slZeLh3hSh&sig=ACfU3U0jcVANBO87pkAtp2viBPhkTjLxSg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiGhqXVqIfoAhWuQ0EAHVHqCLIQ6AEwA3oECAYQAQ#v=onepage&q=capita%20makes%20a%20mess%20of%20municipal%20services%20in%20birmingham&f=false

he name "Plunge Protection Team" was coined by The Washington Post and first applied to the group in 1997.

he name "Plunge Protection Team" was coined by The Washington Post and first applied to the group in 1997.
The "Plunge Protection Team" (PPT) is a colloquial name given to the Working Group on Financial Markets. Created in 1988 to provide financial and economic recommendations to the U.S. President during turbulent market times, this group is headed by the Secretary of the Treasury; other members include the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (or the aides or officials they designate to represent them).

The Plunge Protection Team, composed of high-ranking government financial officials, reports directly and privately to the president of the United States.
The Plunge Protection Team, composed of high-ranking government financial officials, reports directly and privately to the president of the United States.

ttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/plunge-protection-team.asp
https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-radar-the-plunge-protection-team-is-real/

Hi Philandlynne,
I agree entirely, as we are all aware Mr P's performance did nothing to inspire market confidence, but then we are all of aware some of the reasons for that, RBC haven't been really been fair to Centamin,
but then they were pro Endeavour take over all along because it suited their overall strategy at that time.
I am very optimistic though looking forward as I am informed that things have improved dramatically since Jeremy Langford has been running production as he has installed a new sense purpose and enthusiasm amongst the production teams that had been severely lacking for some time!
Despite what some may claim the unresolved court case is still used as an excuse to discount the SP by 10%-15%!
We can only assume that Law 32 is still being considered by the couldn't be asked lazy commissioners ,so the court case remains on ice as it were, resolution on either of those issues must help the SP, after all the MM use any excuse to churn the shares!
The last quarters report is later than expected because Centamin lost their allocated slot with the auditors due to the due diligence proceedings during the endeavour attempted take over.

Comex Futures & Commodities Trading

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/021715/precious-metals-arbitrage.asp

What Is Arbitrage?
Arbitrage involves the simultaneous buying and selling of a security (or its different variants, like equity or futures) to benefit from the price differential between the buy and sell price (i.e. the bid and ask spread). For example, the price of gold at Comex is $1225. On a local exchange, bullion is sold at $1227. One can buy at the lower price and sell it at the higher one, making a $2 profit.

This illustrates just what a farce and how legally the markets are bent in favour of the cartel who control them!

No ordinary mortal without privileged access can ever accurately predict which way the market is moving.

I must assume that A.M. also sees falls as well as rises, he must do as he trades them on a daily basis.
So what exactly is A.M. supposed to do represent Kinesis and also rubbish it, Cey once had a director that did something like that and nearly ended up being taken over as a result.
Sotalo you should know as well as anyone that it is impossible to accurately predict the market direction and there there is certainly no one on here that can do it or outside either, otherwise they would have retired as billionaires years ago and certainly wouldn't be following the likes of us.
Whatever anyone claims on here or elsewhere the markets will go the way that the shadows that run them want them to and those on the inside will always win whilst the likes of us will be lucky or not so lucky.
Despite what some some may claim very few get rich trading on technique, its down to luck most of the time or access to privileged information, that's how the rich get richer, not expertise or skill, it's just a case of the right contacts, going to the right school and a nod or a wink at the right time from the shadows running the markets!

Peel Hunt’s Recommendation Structure is as follows:
Buy, > +15% expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Add, +5-15% range expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Hold, +/-5% range expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Reduce, -5-15% range expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Sell, > -15% expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Under Review (UR), Recommendation, Target Price and/or Forecasts suspended pending market events/regulation
NB The recommendation is the primary driver for analyst views. The target price may vary from the structure due to market conditions, risk profile of
the company and capital returns
Research Disclosures
Number Disclosure
1 Company is a corporate client of Peel Hunt
2 The Analyst has a shareholding in this Company
3 The Company holds >3% in Peel Hunt
4 Peel Hunt makes a market in this Company
5 Peel Hunt is Broker to this Company and therefore provides investment services to the Company
6 During the last 12 months Peel Hunt has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking
services
7 During the last 12 months Peel Hunt has acted as a sponsor/broker/ NOMAD/ financial advisor for an offer of securities from
this company
8 Peel Hunt holds >5% in Company (calculated under Market Abuse Regulation (EU) 596/2014)
9 1% beneficial ownership (calculated for purposes of FINRA under Section 13(d)/(g) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
and IIROC Rule 3400)
10 Peel Hunt holds a net long position that exceeds 0.5% in the Company (calculated under Market Abuse Regulation (EU)
596/2014).
11 Peel Hunt holds a net short position that exceeds 0.5% in the Company (calculated under Market Abuse Regulation (EU)
596/2014).
Recommendation history
Company Disclosures Date Rec Price Target Price
Centamin 4 19 Feb 20 Hold 137p 125p
03 Jan 20 Hold 127p 115p
09 Oct 19 Hold 117p 120p
23 Aug 19 Hold 138p 130p
10 Jul 19 Hold 112p 105p
22 Mar 19 Hold 92p 95p
Hochschild Mining 4 03 Jan 20 Buy 176p 220p
27 Nov 19 Buy 162p 225p
23 Aug 19 Buy 201p 260p
Pan African Resources 1,4,5,6 This note is
initiation of
coverage
Petropavlovsk 1,4,5,6 07 Nov 19 Buy 10p 16p
20 Sep 19 Buy 10p 17p
Pure Gold Mining 1,4,5,7 03 Jan 20 Buy 46p 47p
23 Aug 19 Buy 42p 46p
This report is prepared solely for the use of James HusbandPeel Hunt
Metals & Mining
2 March 2020
10 Jul 19 Buy 35p 40p
07 Jun 19 Buy 33p 39p
Serabi Gold 1,4,5,6 27 Jan 20 Buy 73p 140p
03 Jan 20 Buy 65p 157p
12 Nov 19 Buy 80p 180p
15 Oct 19 Buy 89p 175p
23 Aug 19 Buy 65p 160p
10 Jul 19 Buy 55p 130p
18 Jan 19 Buy 40p 140p

Peel Hunt-Centamin Note issued 2nd March 2020

Gold downside case should still see support at ~US$1,600/oz gold
For the best case scenario we assume the ~US$180/oz gold price bounce
between mid-December (before the first coronavirus stories reached the WHO
and broader media) and 25 February is sustained through Q2 while the market
adjusts to the fact that new infections are on a general downward trend. Then we
assume that a relatively rapid economic bounce back (aided by a reasonable
inventory restock) improves real rates, softening gold prices relatively quickly.
Pan African & Serabi most leveraged on value
The following charts show the percentage ranges between our gold price upside
and downside cases relative to our revised estimates.
As in our base case where Pan African# and Serabi# show the stand out upsides
to our revised price targets, the same two names show the best risk/reward
balance, displaying by far and away the best leverage to our gold price upside
scenario as we set out in Chart 6 below.
Upside case reveals additional EBITDA leverage of 20-35% in 2021
The charts below refer to CY20 and CY21 EBITDA sensitivity to our upside and
downside gold price scenarios, while we also exclude Pure Gold Mining# from
the 2020 chart as we only expect it to move into production during H2. Serabi
looks the most exposed to price changes, both to the upside and the downside,
and Hochschild Mining looks least exposed (due to its higher silver exposure). It
also makes clear that while our base case is roughly mid-way between the upside
and downside scenarios in 2020, by 2021 our base case is far closer to the
downside scenario than the upside
Net debt variability led by Pure Gold & Pan African through 2021
In balance sheet terms, by the end of 2021 it is Pure Gold and Pan African that
stand out in terms of percentage changes to the net debt position. By then Pure
Gold should be in its first year of operation, with the higher gold prices leading to
a significantly shorter payback period. Pan African meanwhile should be able to
pay down completely its US$124m net debt, while at the same time reestablishing its historically high dividend yield.
We would highlight, though, that within our coverage group on our base case
estimates only Petropavlovsk is in a net debt position by end 2022. Even then we
estimate Petropavlovsk’s net debt position will fall to US$240m from the
estimated US$564m position at the end of 2019

On a 6-8 week reinfection timeline, that means it will only take three more
iterations to result in infections or outbreaks in each of the 206 sovereign states
listed by the United Nations. On the 6-8 week containment basis for each
country, this means it could take until October to contain the full virus spread
globally. However, this also seems somewhat hopeful as it assumes that each
country globally has the means to deal with the virus as swiftly as we saw after
the announcement in Wuhan.
• Gold – From a gold perspective this would mean that we continue to see a
very well supported gold price through to year-end 2020. Rolling lockdowns
to deal with outbreaks would likely only fade out as vaccines were developed,
meaning slower economic growth rates and most likely a series of rate cuts to
kick-start economic growth as regions come out of lockdown.
Gold downside case – regional outbreaks take 6-8 weeks to slow
• Virus – In an ideal world, the most recent outbreaks would be the last as safety
measures are stepped up globally and containment measures are more than
adequate in the most recent outbreak regions. Assuming the same six-week
peak incidence rate timeframe in all affected countries, that could potentially
mean that the most recent outbreaks are contained by late March/early April,
and that we also do not see further follow-on outbreak regions.
• Gold – From a gold perspective that could mean continued strong
performance in the gold price for just a few more months before global risks
abate. However, at this stage that seems more hopeful than realistic. In reality,
58 nations have already confirmed coronavirus cases just nine weeks after the
original outbreak, with a further eleven nations with suspected cases. It is
already estimated that 18 nations have over 20 cases confirmed, while 9
nations have over 50 cases confirmed.
Scenario analysis implies gold between US$1,600-1,900/oz in
2020
Our revised gold price forecast is roughly in the mid-point of our best and worst
case COVID-19 scenarios through Q2 and Q3, before fading below the midpoint from Q4 onwards.
Gold upside case could see gold hit +US$1,900/oz
For the worst case we assume three more large global infection cycles that
repeatedly ratchet up gold prices. Between late December (before the wider
world was notified of the initial outbreak) and late February (when infections
outside China started accelerating) the gold price rose US$180/oz. We have
assumed further jumps of US$180/oz, US$130/oz and US$80/oz for the further
three infection cycles, assuming that the ‘shock’ value of further cycles abates
over time. If cycles are met with aggressive quarantining procedures we would
expect a number of proactive interest rate cuts. That said, we would also expect
inflation rates to fall, limiting the reduction in real rates and hence the peak gold
might get to
Gold downside case should still see support at ~US$1,600/oz gold
For the best case sc

but with the higher near-term prices we assume it takes a little longer to return to this price level
The gold price changes translate into material estimate upgrades for our gold
coverage group. For names such as Pan African#, Centamin and Hochschild
Mining, our EBITDA forecasts are now either at or above the upper end of
consensus once again.
Margins forecast to average ~50% by late 2020
Using our revised gold price profile, the upward drift in EBITDA margins from
H2 2019E though to H2 2020E looks set to add another 15% on average as
higher pricing feeds straight through to the EBITDA line. Of the gold stocks we cover, it is only for Petropavlovsk# we expect just a small increase in margins.
The increasing proportion of gold output from bought-in concentrates (where we
assume Petropavlovsk buys the material at 75% of the contained gold value) acts
to dampen down the margin uplift that we see running through its mining
operations.
Coronavirus ‘goalposts’ support US$1,600/oz
One of the biggest variables for both global growth forecasts and (therefore) the
gold price is the development of infection rates for the coronavirus. Over the past
6-8 weeks the rapid spread of the virus in China and abroad has had the market
continuously guessing the next move for global growth as well as the market risk.
In China itself it seems to have taken about six weeks to hit a peak in daily cases
before seeing the incidence rate tail off.
Over the past ten days new outbreak beachheads have been formed in South
Korea, Iran (where the fatalities confirmed at 26 belie the total reported infected
number of 270, and even the Deputy Health Minister has been infected) and
Italy. The Iranian infections seem to centre on the pilgrimage city of Qom and
the high fatality rate in Iran (10%) vs China (2%) suggests a lot of unidentified
cases. This runs the risk of pilgrims returning home across the Middle East
unwittingly spreading the disease further. Given that so far the Iranian authorities
are choosing not to enforce quarantine in the manner rapidly imposed in other
countries, further spreading looks almost guaranteed. School shutdowns in the
UK (following ski trips to the Italian Alps) and a hotel lockdown in Tenerife
highlight the risks from travel.
Below we set out two theoretical, polarised coronavirus scenarios over the
coming year in order to consider the potential impact on the gold price.
Gold upside case – outbreaks continue through to year-end 2020
• Virus – We assume that we have already seen the first iteration of a repeat
outbreak, with 5-10 countries having been hit with outbreaks of the
coronavirus from the original host nation China. Considering the fact that
once out of China this has become very hard to contain, one could conclude
that all nations will eventually be affected to some extent.
On a 6-8 week reinfection timeline, that means it will only take three more
iterations to result in infections or outbreaks in

Yields point to US$1,700/oz gold in 2020
We are updating our gold price deck to reflect the recent change in market
sentiment towards growth, yields and – therefore – gold. The strong rise in the
gold price from sub-US$1,300/oz in Q2 2019 to nearly US$1,700/oz in Q1
2020 came mainly as real yields moved markedly lower through 2019. The latest
surge in the price into February 2020 was triggered as real yields again fell, this
time over global growth concerns as the COVID-19 virus broke out of China. As
yields fell (and at some points even swung negative), this resulted in a resurgence
of gold ETF buying as well as continued central bank purchases.
Falling yields have driven strong gold ETF purchases
The correlation over the last two years between the TIPS yield and the gold
price has remained strong. The highest gold price observations seen over the last
few days (Chart 1) look in line with what would be expected given the now
negative real yield and the high correlation between the two variables. Chart 2
shows that as the TIPS yield fell through most of 2019 there was a sustained
burst of gold ETF buying. While this declined in Q3 2019 as rates bounced a bit,
the weakening of the TIPS yield in December 2019 and January 2020 has led to
further gold ETF purchases
We introduce our base case assumption and also look at upside and downside
scenarios.
Gold base case – 2 rate cuts in 2020, inflation at 1.4%, gold at US$1,700/oz
We think current consensus estimates for rate cuts and inflation imply a gold
price of US$1,765/oz by year end. Our own estimates (two rate cuts and US
inflation at 1.4%, or a little below the average of the last decade) should see gold
average around US$1,700/oz for the year.
Gold upside case – 2-3 cuts, 1.6% inflation, gold at US$1,900/oz
However, assuming historic average inflation (1.6%) and the 2.3 cuts priced into
the forward rates market, we also think there is good justification for a gold price
over US$1,900/oz at some point in 2020
Gold downside case – No rate cuts, inflation at 1.8%, gold at US$1,600/oz
This assumes a relatively rapid return to business as normal and a Fed willing to
wait and see on the impact of COVID-19. It involves inflation undershooting
consensus estimates a little bit at 1.8% (but still above the last ten-year average of
1.6%). This translates to a gold price peak by mid-year, and then it fades away in
the second half, averaging US$1,600/oz over 2020.
Forecasting US$1,700/oz gold for 2020
On the basis that we have already seen a continued high correlation between
shorter-term yield moves, inflation and the gold price, we are lifting our 2020
gold price forecast by US$200/oz to US$1,700/oz.
We still forecast a moderation in the gold price through H2 2020 and into 2021,
and now forecast US$1,550/oz in 2021. This is a 13% lift on our previous 2020
forecast and a 15% increase to our 2021 forecast. We leave our longer-term
US$1,300/oz forecast unchanged, but

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KI5P3x9lU3s&feature=youtu.be

• A unique insight into the precious metals markets with Andrew Maguire

Peel Hunt Metals & Mining 02nd March 2020

Yields support gold amid a viral storm
Recent expectations of further interest rate cuts supporting the
gold price have been driven by evidence that COVID-19 is on
the verge of being a pandemic. We now forecast gold atpEE
US$1,700/oz in 2020 and expect support to persist, with upside
potential should the outbreak worsen and drive real interest rates
further into negative territory. Pan African# and Serabi# look to
offer the best upside in these scenarios, while Centamin looks
close to fair value even in this higher gold price environment.
Increasing our gold price forecast to US$1,700/oz in 2020
Just six months back in August we revised up our gold price deck as spot gold
crossed US$1,500/oz and looked well supported. However, with gold having
come close to the US$1,700/oz mark last week (vs our US$1,525/oz forecast for
H1 2020), we have increased our 2020 gold price forecast to US$1,700/oz to
give investors a better feel for the cash flows we now expect in 2020.
Elevated gold price justified by negative yields and growth concerns
With continued gold ETF purchases into 2020 driven by falling yields and
further growth concerns, we now see continued support for the gold price
through mid-2020. Our US$1,700/oz gold forecast for this year is driven by our
belief of two Fed cuts and 1.4% inflation. The economic consensus of no cuts
and 2% inflation would support gold over the US$1,600/oz level.
EBITDA upgrades drive elevated cash flows through mid-2020
We expect to see a round of estimate upgrades as strong gold prices drive
increased cash flows through H2 2020. We forecast average 2020 EBITDA
upgrades of 28%, with an average margin of 49% by H2 2020 (ex-POG). This
drives even stronger bottom-line 2020 EPS upgrades, which average 49%.

Target prices up 20% on average, PAF and SRB offer the greatest upside
We have today lowered our rating on POG to Add from Buy, but maintain our
ratings on all the other stocks. Our average target price increase is 20% over the
coming 12 months. While POG has the greatest upside value leverage to gold,
HOC has the lowest due to its silver exposure. SRB and PAF have the greatest
upside to the new target prices at 70% and 57% respectively.