Member Info for mrtibbles

Let the traders go and buy some Endeaour or Aton, or anything else, it would be great glad to see the back of short term & CFD traders for good!
I suspect that the report won't disappoint!

Absolutely spot on Mr Bond with you research.
As some may realise I have a very reliable contact who has made regular visits to Sukari over the years and they confirm-
At present the water needed for Sukari processing is supplied via pipe line from Marsa Alam by the Red Sea, a substantial proportion of used production water is then recycled through settling ponds, these ponds are monitored on a regular basis for signs of leakage on a regular basis to avoid any risk of environmental of pollution.
The Nile is well over 150km away from Sukari so the Sudan dam projects should have no affect the Sukari water supply.

Sorry typo in post should read -10 passengers per single decker and 20 on a double, so extra buses need to be put on although there isn't enough staff or buses to do this!

Thank you for the updates,especially from down under and Spain, evidently our lying ex journo PM is quite happy to leave the EU without a deal or he says operate along similar limes as Australia does with Europe, didn't know the EU had a deal with Australia?
In the UK its now compulsory to wear face masks on buses, although the the bus companies wont pay to have extra staff to check and the police couldn't cope anyway, the drivers say that if they try to enforce the rules they get threatened, also a limit of 10 passengers per single decker and on a double, so extra buses need to be put on although there isn't enough staff or buses to do this!
Pubs opened yesterday, social distancing reduced to 1m, although dentists remain closed apart from basic treatment and local GP's services really basic if at all!
Boris & his bunch thought about reducing VAT to stimulate retail business but decided against it as they felt it wouldn't benefit the poor or encourage local high-street spending, so they are now thinking about issuing a one off voucher to adults £500 & children £250 to encourage local retail spending!
Today is the celebration of he creation of the NHS, strange when you think we have a Tory government the party which has spent decades trying to sell off the NHS or privatise it!
The UK lock down went to **** when Dominique Cummings blatantly broke his own rules and gave unconvincing reasons why from the 10 Downing St garden supported by Gove & Boris!
Our is hopeless government is just desperate to get people back to work, despite the fact that there isn't any an effective Covid testing procedure in place and they certainly haven't dealt with the pandemic !
Depressing to say the least!

You are very welcome, sorry about the tyro in the title1 , good old spell check!

It would seem that Siko's very well informed friend could well be proven right when he said "Good times coming,good times coming!"
This why Sawiris and Endeavour were so keen to carpet bag Centamin!

Consolidating a strong start to the year
We expect Q2 production of 115k oz in line with guidance, with
unchanged production and cost guidance for 2020. However,
simply maintaining guidance in 2020 should imply expanding
margins in H2. Net cash should reduce in Q2 and Q3 due to
outgoing dividend payments, before another cash build in Q4.Production for Q2 forecast at 115k oz
We have conservatively forecast CEY Q2 production at 115k oz, directly in line
with guidance issued at the Q1 results stage. The 10k oz sequential decline is due
to lower production from the underground during the period. This leaves our
open pit contribution for Q2 at 86%, compared to guidance for the year of 80%
of production coming from the open pit. With a lower production quarter, we
also expect AISC costs to rise to US$1,006/oz in Q2, up from US$902/oz in Q1.
Guidance expected to remain unchanged, implying margin expansion in H2
We currently forecast 525k oz of gold to be produced at Sukari in 2020, the
middle of the 510-540k oz range reiterated at the Q1 stage. While we expect
CEY to hold its existing guidance range on production and costs, any visibility on
the scale of production recovery expected in Q3 is likely to be a focus in the
upcoming production report. We currently forecast a modest recovery in
production to 132k oz in Q3, which should help drop AISC back down to
US$909/oz on our forecasts. This would put our estimated AISC margin at
US$777/oz, up from the US$650-700/oz range during Q4 2019 to Q2 2020.
Cash and liquid assets forecast at close to US$330m at mid year
We are expecting to see a reduction in cash and liquid resources in the Q2 report
due to the payment of the Q1 dividend in May. While on a gross basis cash
resources should have built up to the ~US$400m level at Centamin during the
quarter, the US$69m dividend payment in May should result in cash and liquid
resources of closer to US$330m at the Q2 stage. Looking forward, we would also
expect a net cash reduction in Q3 due to payment of the interim dividend, which
we have forecast at USc4/share (a 1.8% yield)

We already knew the Bank of England was bailing out big polluters and bad bosses- but a new report released today exposes all the alarming details.
63 companies who’ve taken almost £19 billion in public money, 39% have cut more than 34,000 jobs and 56% of the money’s gone to airlines, car makers, and oil and gas companies. To capture all the carbon these companies emit in just one year alone, we’d need to plant more than 6.9 billion trees - that’s an area three times the size of the UK.
A new poll in today’s papers shows the majority of people think corporations should only be given public money if it comes with environmental and social conditions attached. But so far, Boris’s promises to ‘build back better’ have been all words and no action.
It is important to raise the profile of his hypocrisy and turn this public anger into public pressure. Positive Money made a video to expose it: now we need to spread it across social media so will you help by sharing it now?
[New report: Where are the conditions for the Bank of England’s broken bailout scheme?:
https://positivemoney.org/2020/07/new-report-where-are-the-conditions-for-the-bank-of-englands-broken-bailout-scheme/
City AM: Two thirds of Brits think Coronavirus bailouts should have strings attached:
https://www.cityam.com/two-thirds-of-brits-think-coronavirus-bailouts-should-have-strings-attached/
Twitter: Prime Minister Boris Johnson announces new date for UN climate summit: https://twitter.com/COP26/status/1266011322086567942
Positive Money: Bank of England comes clean on corporate bailouts following Positive Money campaign:
https://positivemoney.org/2020/05/press-release-govt-and-boe-comes-clean-on-corporate-bailouts/

Gold price pull back this afternoon which may well be the reason for the Cey share price pull back .
Seems a little overdone as usual!

I don't think the the Yanks would bother , they just refuse to let anyone audit all the gold in Fort Knox at the same time, that way the same piece of gold can be counted many times over!

Asleep,
Please do participate in the conversions and discussions on here, don't be afraid to ask questions or offer your opinion, whatever you care to learn about Centamin, Sukari , the mining industry or general investing I am sure that our fellow members will be most willing and very able to provide you with the answers.
You may already have noticed that at times the discussion on here may be off topic, but in today's world and certainly with a contrarian share like Centamin any of what at first may appear to be unrelated topic can indeed through any series of knock on events have an effect on the POG and the Centamin share price.
General discussion amongst friends and fellow members helps to strengthen the forum by providing moral support to one another,especially during turbulent or troubled times.
Also don't be panicked into making hasty and unresearched decisions, as you may be aware at the beginning of 2020 Centamin was subject to an unsolicited take over bid by Endeavour and there was a great deal of effort by the Endeavour campaigns supporters to undermine the confidence of existing Centamin's share holders
However the integrity and quality of Centamin with the tremendous support of its share holders fought off the great pretender and Centamin went on to be where it is today.
So good luck with your choice of investment.

Welcome Asleep to most probably the best informed and most civilised Centamin forum on the net !
This morning we had the usual shoving thru the stops of those unwise enough to set them by the MM so they could grab some shares a little cheaper to fill some orders and make a few quid!
If you stay you will soon come to realise who the genuine and long term members are on here, just be aware though that there are some that pop up on here from time to time who may not be whom they claim to be and have ulterior motives.

Thanks Chas , I wish I had bought a few million of those shares @6p!

Hi Siko,
Great to hear from you.
Good of you to confirm the actual situation in Eygpt!
Hope that you and the family are all well!

Hi Mr Gnome,
Thank you for such an interesting insight into the value of bonds, I fail to see the point of tying funds up for a decade for so little, in fact most probably no profit, but a loss!
Cant understand the logic in governments (US Fed) funding more debt by buying even more debt?

Great to hear from you Market, I would certainly be glad to buy you a Philps pastie or two!

I agree with you Mr Bond,
The reason the UK government had to resort to the "Save the NHS" propaganda campaign was to try and conceal just how overstretched the NHS is due to decades of under investment, privatisation,out sourcing and running on a JIT supply system.
Perhaps if our government had been spending peoples national Insurance contributions on the NHS instead of using them to pay off the UK deficit then the NHS would have been better equipped and able to deal with the Covid -19 pandemic.

https://www.which.co.uk/news/2020/06/why-labels-wont-protect-uk-food-standards-from-a-us-trade-deal/?utm_source=whichcouk&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=labelingfood250620
The UK’s world-leading food standards could be compromised under a UK-US trade deal, with consumers unable to make meaningful choices about what they eat. New research by Which? shows that consumers are against lower standard food, even if labelled. As we reported last week, a UK-US trade deal could see hormone-treated beef, pigs and chlorinated chicken – practices currently banned in the UK – be imported or produced here. The government had promised to uphold food standards but has recently begun to backtrack. Proponents of lowering food standards claim shoppers can make informed decisions.

Read more: https://www.which.co.uk/news/2020/06/why-labels-wont-protect-uk-food-standards-from-a-us-trade-deal/ - Which?

I am fortunate to have some very knowledgeable and trustworthy contacts.

June 25, 2020
Centamin plc
Upgrade to Outperform
Our view: New CEO and board appointments will likely increase focus
on improving operations at Sukari and lower the risk of a move into
new projects in West Africa. This should mean CEY focusing on cash
generation and increasing returns across multiple metrics. We forecast
a FY dividend +27% vs. consensus. We move our Target to GBp 210 on
higher multiples and rating to Outperform from Sector Perform on CEY's
improved operational certainty and superior returns.
Key points:
New CEO increases focus on Sukari... We think both Martin Horgan's
appointment as CEO and recent board additions are a positive for CEY.
After two years of operational disappointments we think the team's
renewed focus will primarily be on delivering on operational targets.
Whilst the recent departure of a second Chief Operating Officer (COO)
could be read as concerning, we actually think a stream-lining of
management structure could be a positive. Q1 was a good start to the year
and CEY has flagged a strong H2 meaning good momentum into year end.
...and lowers M&A and project risks. With focus on getting Sukari back
on track we think there is less risk near term of CEY looking to build
something from its West African exploration portfolio. We continue to
believe the options there may struggle to stack-up vs. Sukari. Similarly we
expect M&A (acquisitions) to be on the back burner for now, no bad thing
given again we see few assets that fit with Sukari. Whilst we don't expect
Endeavour Mining to come back with another offer for CEY near term we
do think ongoing consolidation in the global gold space (such as AlacerSSR) indicates a bidder for CEY may materialise in time. Sukari is now one
of the few large gold assets outside the majors.
Returns profile differentiated. CEY has a net cash balance sheet. Our
work today (link) suggests the group is differentiated on dividends (+5%
yield) vs. global mid-cap precious peers. CEY has also returned >100%
of FCF in the past. We forecast a 2020E dividend of US14c/sh currently,
+27% ahead of consensus. ROIC and ROCE also look attractive averaging
13% and 25% respectively on a 3-year forward basis. This comes before
potential tailwinds of lower oil prices and an off-balance sheet funded
solar plant come through on costs over the next couple of years.
Valuation screens well. Today we make minor changes to our operational
outlook moving 20E EBITDA +2%. Our 20E EPS moves +20% on lower
depreciation and 20E FCF +35% on this and working capital inflows. Having
lowered our target multiples -20% at the time of our previous downgrade
we move these +15% today to 1.5x NAV (was 1.3x) and 7.0x (was 6.0x)
two-year forward EBITDA, reflecting better operational certainty and is a
premium to global mid-cap peers given the group's returns profile. CEY's
valuation at 1.67x 20E P/NAV, 4.6x 21E EV/EBITDA and 7% 21E FCF yield
compares to EMEA peers on 1.53x, 5.2x, 11% respec