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Hi Cowichan,
I greatly appreciate and respect your input and opinion's, you are well informed and know your subject, I also appreciate your opinions and enthusiasm on what could be done and the possibilities in West Africa.
In the past I held Barrick, but can't say that I was impressed particularly with the share holder returns or the communication which was patonising ,even rude to say the least, however the CEO Bristow is an arrogant and awful character who pays lips service to environmental issues, slaughters wildlife for his own pleasure and over bloated ego, also Barrick does not treat its workers well and seems quite prepared to rub along with some pretty corrupt governments for commercial gain.
So not that Barrick would care a jot I felt it would be hypocritical to hold their shares, as to Slimy Seb's Endeavour ,I wouldn't touch that bunch of carpetbagger's with a barge pole!
So although I have my issues with the way Centmin has run they pale into insignificance when compared to my feelings on Slimy Seb and lion slaughterer Bristow!
Personally if Martin Horgan wants to sell Batie West and make either of those two two buggers squeak over the price and then uses the money wisely elsewhere in Centamin I have no objection.
I appreciate your enthusiasm over West Africa and agree you should have received answers to your justified questions on the pertinent points, but unfortunately after being invested in Centamin for over a decade and enduring so many set backs , broken promises and disappointments my enthusiasm for what might be has disappeared, but at least we seem to have a CEO who may actually get what we have now Sukari running properly!

For Those that may have missed it-
May 27th 2021 Peel Hunt Note
West Africa growth from Doropo
Centamin has released the review of its West Africa gold project portfolio, with the announcement that its Doropo project in Coted'Ivoire will be progressing to PFS stage. Management seems fairly high conviction on Doropo being in production by late 2024 at an impressive capital intensity. At 150-200k oz pa,
Doropo should also provide a substantial production uplift to CEY after Sukari operations have stabilised. Diversification and growth are now firmly part of the CEY strategy.
Doropo project could be in production by late 2024
Centamin (CEY) completed the West Africa portfolio review, from which the main conclusion is that the Doropo project is likely to be CEY’s second mine.
The Doropo PEA showed potential to build an open pit mine for US$275m in capex with the aim of producing just over 150k oz pa over a 13 year life of mine
(LOM). Doropo’s average AISC is estimated at US$904/oz with cash costs estimated just below US$800/oz. Doropo could also produce over 200k oz in the first five years of production for an early payback period. Management has stated that the PFS will be technically heavy so time to DFS could be short, while costs included (capex and opex) could well come in lower than stated today. CEY has allocated US$14m in 2021 for 70km of drilling and to move the project to PFS stage by mid-2022.
Batie West looking for strategic options
Meanwhile, the board has decided to explore third-party development optionsfor its Batie West project in Burkina Faso. The Batie West PEA showed potential for a US$265m capex mine with a LOM of just 8.5 years of 140k oz at an AISC of ~US$1000/oz. However, with a higher opex and capital intensity compared to Doropo, the CEY board has decided that this mine does not fit its investment criteria, and so will categorise the project as non-core.
Production uplift expected by 2024/2025
The ABC project in Cote d'Ivoire has also been allocated US$3m in exploration spend for 2021 to get permits by mid-2022, but was the project with the shortest update today. It sounded as if management would like Doropo in production by late 2024, in our view, with any potential construction capex for Doropo being timed to come at the tail end of the current Sukari pit stripping. Meanwhile, the reclassification of Batie West as non-core could potentially bring in funds to CEY should they sell off the project

In view of our debate on what may be ways forward in West Africa and our frustrations about the erratic share price I though this post from 2017 from Dasut warranted a reread.
As we are aware since 2017 Egypt's new mining code of 2020 has hopefully removed many of the obstacles that deterred new commercial mines development, although that acknowledged unfortunately the legal system doesn't as yet seem even slightly more speedy with regard to Centamins outstanding issues or Law 32, which remains under scrutiny by the SCC, assuming they are still around that is!

Original post Dasut-
Centamin/Pharaoh Gold/Sukari I have mentioned various names because let us not forget the parent company is Centamin and currently their only production comes from their Egyptian flagship mine.

So currently political and commercial risk are based on Egypt which has unfortunately gone through and continues to do through many "basket case" scenarios.

Investors in Centamin are risk takers so the share price will be volatile BUT at the same time it is a profitable business model, with conservative management, with no overly ambitious predictions or advertising gimmicks.

It is a company that will be ham strung by what Egyptian politics/legislation dictate, coupled with fluctuations in the gold price.
I really don't see the frustrations that many on this board are suffering changing until the West African opportunities turn into producing mines and political and commercial risks are spread.

As an investor I would hope this will happen sooner rather than later
BUT I don't think fast tracking is always the best route especially in a mining business to take, especially developing virgin sites, so as I have said previously making sure double checking detailed strategically put together mine plans are essential and are the difference between bleeding money and making good profits.

So as I have seen under other postings patience is of paramount importance so I am keeping the faith.

Possibly Dasut may want give us an update on his thoughts of 2017?

Hi Paul,
Firstly then you for your confidence in my integrity, whilst I make no apology for my views or my passion in some of my posts, I can only say that they are a result of my anger at the deception, blatant lies and lack of integrity of our present government.
Whichever government is in power and whatever their policies they have given a sworn oath of office to act in the best interests of all the people and the country, I agree this is open to interpretation, but I can't recall a time when such lying and deception of the electoral was ever practiced and blindly accepted on such a scale.
However whilst such a lack of honesty and integrity in an elected government and politicians is reprehensible and in some ways to be expected, although not necessarily tolerated, as there is some chance to vote them out in the future .
That said it is indeed unfortunate to say the very least when despite the glossy brochure, slick company website and all the corporate pledges over the last decade that similar behavior and policies exists within a company in which the private individual has chosen to place their trust and funds.
We share holders have been far too tolerant and forgiving on far too many occasions, how many more times should we be expected to suffer the financial consequences of professional . incompleteness, ineptness, laziness even deliberate withholding of material facts, seemingly intended deceit and family nepotism!
If this were not bad enough the share holders are thrown scraps off the top table in dividend out of their own money as some form of pacification, yet some of the directors and site managers are awarded handsome share bonuses for their past performance , what exactly is the criteria for these bonuses is somewhat a mystery to say the least, it would not be unreasonable to question why some directors should be awarded a bonus despite being responsible for a catalogue of failures and avoidable set backs since 2016 , also withholding the true and pertinent facts to share holders (i.e. the state of waste in the Sukari open pit) all this resulting in a halving of the share price in the past twelve months?
So despite all the millions of dollars spent on drilling and exploration in West Africa how can share holders possibly have any faith in the dependability or accuracy of the results obtained, how reliable has been the previous management reports and assurances on Sukari, is short they have proven to be reliably unreliable with alarming regularity!
So best not to rush in on West Africa, but to consider the true facts properly, then decide what to offload and what to contract out for development.
In the meantime the priorities should be very clear, sort out Sukari and the other outstanding legal issues and if the terms can be agreed add to Sukari 's output from close at hand new concessions in Eygpt!
It would be better to operate an one mine properly, rather than running two or three mines improperly!

Hi Sotolo,
Most of us quite rightly try to adopt a policy in the first instance of assuming the best in other people, or at least that they will uphold the same principles and morale values as we practice towards them, or even just give people the benefit of the doubt.
Having said that we realise that people are human,not god's and so like us they will make mistakes at times, even though procedures have been followed through things can go wrong or despite all the tests and precautions the unexpected happens, certainly in mining.
I think we must agree that unless you are a day trader when it comes to investing in any company that it is essential to have some belief in the the integrity (Trustworthiness) and the professional competence of the management to operate to the highest industry standards to deliver on whatever they have promised (guidance).
With those facts or values in mind we made the decision to invest in Centamin, even accepting more time's than most of us will care to renumber the supposedly industry standard professional reasoning from Josef El Raghy Chairman and Andrew Pardey CEO as to why the promised guidance was missed by some considerable amount, or somebody had forgotten to make sure there were spare parts for critically important plant (LHDR) or at least a credible contingency plan to mitigate production risk.
In short these two senior company officer's might be suspected of being incompetent or inept or they were intentionally using sharp practice rather than best practice at Sukari in order to pump up results in the short term.
Whatever their reasons , neither can be regarded as uneducated, unintelligent, so they were aware of what they were up to for short term best interest but as events have demonstrated certainly not the best long term interests of Centamins trusting share holders.
It seems though that the Sukari operation (Scheme)was carefully orchestrated to lull shareholders and the market into a false sense of security by under promising and then over delivering for the initial period, (as we are now aware the price for this was mounting up in piles of uncleared waste) Long term share holders will remembe the 2018 Egyptian media propaganda of record breaking output , unfortunately though this was quickly followed by the guidance warning due to hitting unexpected low grades ( which Pardey was aware of in 2016).
Pardey bamboozled the share holders and the market with technically termed excuses and colored charts with promises of soon to be published results of excellent unexploited West African assets that may soon be contributing to future Centamin guidance.
After past deceptions I am skeptical about these West African claims, Marin Horgan is right to be wary, why not sell them or contract some out and concentrate on at least running Sukari and other new concessions properly.
Far too much money already spent for no return d in West Africa,!

Far too much of it in the markets, politics and the world in general!
Unfortunately Centamin share holders are now being punished by the market for choosing to believe the Andrew Pardey and associates version of what was going on at Sukari for many years.
However having acknowledged that, shareholders placed their trust and their money with the Centamin management and quite rightly they expected integrity and honesty from the CEO of the company in return .
Just how much did the board sitting in Jersey really know about the true state of the open pit we can never be sure, (pardon the pun) but I think by the time it became very apparent just what a hole Pardey and co had dug the company into at Sukari the board were frozen into a state of WTF do we do now!
I think we can assume that Pardey's tactics with the board were much the same as with share holders , each time he got into a fix he would fudge it, or carry out what should have been a temporary fix, then kick the can down the road with a plethora of coloured charts and more drilling in West Africa and more promices of great things to come next time, or the time after that!
However after yet another unexpected occurrence of naff ore grades and the self destruction the sole LHDR it was blatantly clear that Pardey was out of his depth and his Sukari side kick Youssef was as much use as chocolate teapot!
But possibly the board hey were too afraid of the consequences of admitting just how dire the situation at Sukari was becoming with no intermediate solution or way out, so Pardey went and things shambled on whilst professionals from other miners came and went
The board counted its blessing's when Martin Horgan took up post and things seemed to improve, possibility if it had been possible to carry on producing to guidance whilst the huge amount of open pit waste was gradually cleared it would have been better, but unfortunately the pooled water and potential of a pit wall collapse necessitated more urgent and comprehensive open pit remedial work.
I can understand the frustration and anger some share holders feel about the West African assets , but after the way Pardey kicked the can down the road on so many of the issues I can't say that I am surprised at Martin Horgan's announcement.
I think most of the West African assets were never managed properly, but just expensive Pardey pie in the sky diversionary tactics
True huge amounts of money has been spent on drilling, but possibly it would be better to sell off most of them or come to an arrangement with another junior minor.
My own preference is sort out Sukari, get the right agreement with the Egyptian government on the new concessions. possibly at the same time addressing other outstanding issues and then concentrate on operations in a known jurisdiction!
Once again I am really sorry that friends like Cowichan have been so dissapointed after all their enthusiasm !

Hi Mr Gnome,
Hi Mr Gnome,
I can't recall at time, even in the early nineties that I felt such despair about the state of things in the UK,, I wasn’t a fan of Thatcherism, but at least her cabinet had a better understanding of how to behave properly as ministers with some integrity and certainly didn't lie as much Boris Johnson and his cabinet full of odious and evil self serving parasites.
Some wonder why the Scot's are now pursuing independence from the UK, it's hardly surprising really when considering all the promises that were made to them by the Westminster Parliament during the last Scottish independence referendum been in the main broken, most likely if the SNP gains independence this may lead to the total breakup of the UK until only "Borisland" remains.
In "Borisland" the subjects live in complete isolation from the rest of the real world and they must renew their passport and apps on weekly basis, just in case they were to stray across the border, should that happen then before they are allowed back in they will have to pay to go into quarantine for 6 months and promise everyday to vote for the "Boris Party" on their return, or be called a loony leftie and deported to Scotland, once again an EU member!
“King Boris” never tells the truth and his subjects must wear all blue, read the "Boris News" tabloids, and watch Sky TV, any subject caught watching the BBC will be deported to the EU!
“King "Boris “often jets off on Caribbean holidays paid for by his Toady Brexit business friends, whilst the brain dead and those poor souls waiting for NHS operations who are unable to move and all his supporter's exist in glorious ignorance of the truth surviving on a diet of chlorinated chicken from the US, vegetables grown in the starving peoples poo fields of India and stinking contaminated pork meat from Kenya!
I thought this was a horrible nightmare, but then I realised I had woken up this morning to Radio 4 interview with a "Borisland" government minister who was talking about how they are hoping to do marvelous trade deal with Mexico on Welsh lamb and British beef in return for importing Taco bread and Tortilla’s!
So although you have some concerns about the competence of your Oz political elite let me assure you that those in the UK are certainly just as unfit for office,quite possibly even more so!

Rush to Buy Gold by Central Banks as US Inflation Outruns Interest Rates by Most Since 1975
Friday, 5/28/2021 15:29
PRICES to buy gold headed on Friday for their 3rd highest month-end ever and the highest weekly finish in London since early November, eve of the first successful Covid vaccine trials announcement, amid rumors of heavy central-bank gold buying, a fresh rise in crude oil and other industrial input costs, plus the highest inflation on the US Fed's preferred measure in nearly 3 decades.
Losing $100 per ounce on Monday 9 November, the day of the Pfizer/BioNTech news, gold prices bottomed in March at $1675.
Today gold priced in US Dollars rose to $1896 ahead of the 3pm LBMA benchmarking buy-sell auction in London, having risen through $1900 earlier this week.
New US inflation data today said the cost of living in the world's largest economy, excluding 'volatile' fuel and food, rose almost 3.1% per year in April, the fastest annual rise in the core PCE index since July 1992.
With the yield offered to buyers of 10-year US Treasury debt ending last month at 1.65%, that put long-term interest rates 1.4 percentage points below inflation, worse than any time since 1975.
So-called base effects continue to drive annual inflation higher however, because last April saw the core PCE index rise just 0.9% from 12 months before, near its slowest pace of the last 6 decades.

Crude oil prices, having gone below zero in April 2020's Covid Crash as producers struggled to find storage space amid the collapse in demand, today rose back to $67 per barrel of US benchmark WTI, a record high when first reached in 2006.

Shipping costs for China-to-Europe freight have meantime jumped to record highs, up 5-fold from this time last year, says the Drewry World Container Index.

Back in the gold market, gold being bought inside the Bank of England's vaults – heart of the world's wholesale bullion market – "has traded for as much as 50 cents above benchmark London prices," claims Bloomberg today, citing "sources" and "traders" and suggesting this signals strong demand among official-sector agencies, defying earlier analyst forecasts for moderate central-bank gold demand in 2021.
The Bank of England held over 5,640 tonnes of gold at end-April according to data on its website, all but 310 tonnes – the UK's own gold reserves – held for foreign governments and central banks, as well as international bodies and also the commercial-bank clearing members of the London Bullion Market Association.
The Bank for International Settlements – the central banks' central bank – "bought as much as 1 million ounces...from various commercial banks at a premium of 30 to 40 cents recently," Bloomberg claims.
With the BIS typically acting for central-bank clients, analysts at Commerzbank this week said new data show the Bank of Thailand buying 43.5 tonnes of gold for its reserves in April, while Uzbekistan added over 8 tonnes and Kazakhstan over 4 tonnes.

From my post 2014
The profit share will be what the profit share will be – the joint venture partner, ie the government, sits in the 50% owned subsidiary Sukari Gold Mines. The management board of this subsidiary has representatives of the government and an equal number from Centamin. All of the investment into the Sukari mine is audited, with Sukari Gold Mines very much being a part of this process. Similarly, all gold sales go through Sukari Gold Mines, where the operating surplus will be divided 50/50 between the government and Centamin, once the original capital has been repaid back to Centamin and its shareholders. The 3% royalty has been paid to the Egyptian Treasury ever since production started (this also goes through SGM).

With the above in mind, there is no issue with regards to the money that has been ploughed into Sukari, particularly the costs of Stage 4 (c.$350m) – this needs to be recouped before any of this operating surplus can be shared. This is not due to kick in until later this year, or possibly in Q1/Q2 next year. It is all a function of the ramp up in production and the gold price.

There is no dispute between Centamin, the Egyptian government and/or EMRA, nor the 50/50 Sukari Gold Mines subsidiary. What you are getting is probably a series of people mouthing off that they want profit share now. This is a political game more than anything, as the deal is the deal (in fact Centamin have advanced the country a few million dollars as a demonstration of their faith in this deal – this will also be recouped out of future operating surpluses due to the government).

What is wonderful is that very few people seem to understand what this 50/50 deal is – it is effectively a 50% tax on free cash flow. In fact the 50% will not kick in until 2016, as in 2015 this will be 45%. To counter this there is no VAT, no corporation tax, no other taxes to pay all beyond the above and the royalty, which on a blended rate compares reasonably well with other 1st world mining jurisdictions (like the US, Australia, Northern Europe etc).

See page 51: after the deduction of royalty payments and the recovery of costs and expenditure as provided in paragraphs b,c,d and e, any remainder of sales revenue shall constitute net proceeds and shall be shared between EMRA and Centamin.

(See the details in the pdf file. Alternate pages in Arabic & English).

http://gate.ahram.org.eg/Media/News/2017/2/26/2017-636237441861789391-178.pdf

Some figures from Mr-Yousef El-Raghy in case some of you find it useful:

-$12.2m advance profit share paid to EMRA in October 2017.
-$136m total advance profit share have been paid to EMRA since October 2016
21/11/2017

https://www.arabfinance.com/2015/pages/news/newsdetails.aspx?Id=416470&lang=ar

2018
https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/58671/EMRA-proceeds-4-5M-on-profit-account-from-Sukari-mine

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