RE: Valuation15 Mar 2023 18:25
“A drug approved for Phase I clinical trials has a 10.4% likelihood of eventually reaching FDA approval. If the drug moves to Phase II trials, the likelihood of approval rises to 16.2%”
What if the drug is actually a delivery mechanism for a decades old form of chemo with a very well known awful safety profile, which has been in clinic now for (ages…. I can’t remember exactly how long) and shows a massively improved safety profile? Then what’s the chance of success? Much higher doses being delivered, the trial hasn’t been stopped, MTD to blow standard dosing for dox out of the water. Can you add those calculations in please? And can you also assume the market will increase in size to say 3bn to be conservative and also add in AVA3996 showing a similar profile, pre clinic, (dogs not needing dosing breaks mid clinic vs needing them etc) the 10% chance you allocated above since that’ll be clinical pretty soon too and I believe that market is circa $2bn per annum. Thanks.