Member Info for mrmoagi

Another important macro for junior exploration companies is also that they often struggle to get others to buy their dream of developing large district scale precious or bulk commodity deposits.
And given all else going on in the world, financing is set to become even more problematic - Botswana Govt and Ministry are hurtling into an era where really nobody much cares about committing any new or fresh mine development work for bulk or precious commodities.

I do not ignore dewatering at all. It actually is not, and never has been, an issue. They are not producing the vast quantities of water that you seem to think they are. Their evaporation ponds or bladders are not full or anywhere near overflowing. Never have been.
Instead, I hazard the assertion that the reason for slow progress is because of poor drilling technique, created by narrow coal seams and because of coal fines collapsing in on drilled wells.
I further assert Tlou will never again drill a horizontal well in Botswana - so if I am correct, seeing how they shape and sell this approach going forward will be amusing.
Only time will tell of course. Note though I do have a good record of predicting ahead for CBM in Botswana!

Mr Smith - it is never too late to listen and learn from people that know more than you do !!

2 horizontal wells producing successfully would produce substantially more than enough gas for a modest 10MW plant.
Hence Mr Smith, you are ignoring an obvious reality facing Tlou and instead you have allowed yourself and your thoughts and your postings to be diverted into talking about all sorts of potential uses for their gas. And they may not be producing anywhere near enough gas for what Tlou themselves as their primary commercial project - Gas to Power.

All your other wonderfully creative (and naive) interpretations of what is actually happening there continue to gloss over / ignore this potentially important factor.

And something else I can ‘tell’ you - Botswana is grinding to a halt within Govt and Ministry. Moagi himself is under suspicion for past misdemeanours under Khama times (this came as a huge surprise to me); Govt itself currently seems preoccupied elsewhere with other Khama nonsense.
Nothing of significance is getting done or approved.

Yes you could argue that. And like I also said, I prefer to cut out unnecessary small talk - especially the obvious stuff.

We have had the management blitz as to KAV excitement on where it is drilling in the Copperbelt and the share price reaction ie to 6p.

Now we are living through the grind of exploration drilling and securing environmental approvals etc, ie share price in 2-3p range.

Has it further to fall ? Or are management gearing up again with the next blitz of exciting news on findings or is it potential findings?

There has been a significant amount of propaganda by Govt and Ministry of Mines about Botswana as a welcoming investment destination in recent months, so is this KAV management trying to spin of the back of that per chance or is there something more substantial re drill bit results to share. Management can spin potential for only so long - Botswana as an investment destination will keep everyone waiting for much longer than ideally liked.
Too much spin now that has to keep being elongated (because Govt slows down progress) does not end well for most exploration companies. Especially those in Botswana that I have followed.

Those invested here long enough ie since 2016 have seen all manner of weird and wonderful things re this stock. I came across 2 old voice clips in my Dropbox folder this week - one where TG was presenting to a room full of retail punters in London and another Q&A session to similar audience on a Friday afternoon.
I was struck or reminded that Tlou deliberately set about keeping their retail shareholder base ‘informed’ on matters via social media channels to bring these type of events to shareholders, actual and potential.
Then my conscious started remembering the hype and dialogue appearing on message boards, mainly this one driven by social media champions - Tidd, Buzz, MM, and a good few others.
Amazingly all that effort only got one opportunity to run the share price up - that being early 2018 when there was expectation of the 100MW tender award first time round. That was when the price hit 17p very briefly - slipped back quickly.
As of late, I am struck there is seemingly no real attempt now to push and promote the share to the market. Existing shareholders would likely cash out if there was a miracle increase in share price, which in any event would be very short lived. So why bother wasting the effort. Also, to push the share price, there has to be news ahead - so I wonder does that mean there is little newsworthy events for Tlou on its short term horizon.
Or has Tony and management finally realised they should keep their trap shut and let achievement of actual company milestones do their talking rather than them saying these are our exciting milestones ahead ….
Lastly, I wonder if Clueless has learned his lesson and will stop blabbing about returns for long suffering shareholders, exciting times, etc.
Relevance to future share price performance - not a lot really. I just thought I would reminisce a little with those here long enough to appreciate the Poppy poop words of a few years back.
Pretend management case study this one !!

I always find this a bizarre question. The purpose of a message board is to discuss a stock.

Are you saying we can only discuss the stock if we hold shares in it ?!

Of course, then your next assertion will be if I am not saying only positive things then I must be looking to drive the price down so I can buy back in cheaper etc. Heard all this before, frequently.

So….. I am interested in Botswana as an investment destination. And interested in the increasing interest in the Kalahari Copperbelt as an investment destination. And whether or not I am invested is my business, not yours. Just as I would never ask you or anyone else if they are invested.

So so ….. there you go.

Totally agree. Botswana as an investment destination has however been largely awful for the past at least 10 years. Yes there are a few isolated success stories, but mostly it is a carnage of delays caused by a Govt and Ministry that talk the talk, but do not yet have the confidence to walk the talk by making investments or giving the green light.
Tlou Energy - CBM - disaster;
Tsodilo Resources - is almost like their iron ore deposit is too large for everyone to get their head around. Never mind their diamonds.

A plethora of others

Agree. What concerns me is that some exploration companies in Botswana find what they announce as significant or world class size deposits of their chosen commodity only to then spend years seemingly fighting the system there proving up the resource, secure the necessary funding and commercialise their business. The endless drip drip drip of exploration spend by some juniors all too often ends in a stranded assets scenario - meaning we get sucked in to invest and end up spending years hoping for our return.

https://www.mmegi.bw/features/mineral-explorers-flock-to-the-wild-west/news

Real or just Govt propaganda …..

https://www.mmegi.bw/business/doubts-raised-as-govt-fast-tracks-power-projects/news

Unbelievable, seriously unbelievable. And not even a mention of CBM in the energy mix.

CBM seems to have zero voice in Botswana

More humour then. Let’s celebrate closing at 167 then. The only way is up then……

Or is it

I never realised ….. Winni has a sense of humour. Well we’ll well whatever next. Probably another half dozen messages from Smith telling us why his search engine failed him (yet again) and that is why he read my message …..

Hopefully Tlou will manage to generate and sell power before the BERA licence needs renewal …… in how many years now ……

This seems a sensible thing to do - see if areas of co-operation can be explored and jointly developed. But no doubt we will hear good warm fuzzy things from them both - executing on that will of course end up being the challenge …..

Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy of South Africa Mr. Samson Gwede Mantashe will on Thursday 26 May 2022 hold bilateral talks with the

Honorable Minister of Minerals and Energy, Mr. Lefoko Maxwell Moagi from 10am at Avani hotel in Gaborone.

10 years later, Morupule B is still undergoing commissioning problems which don’t seem to ever get resolved.
Still talking about solar PV tenders and developing renewables as new source of power generation.

Still talking about Orapa 90MW turbine conversion to gas using CBM as feedstock.

And some here wonder why I am so negative on Tlou / Botswana / BPC / Ministry / Govt. If only some of you knew even one tenth of the ballix that goes on in-country, then maybe you wouldn’t be so suckered by the promises of great riches and wealth ahead.

TG saying he chose Botswana as it had the greatest potential for developing CBM compared to anywhere else in the world has got to be one of the greatest grandstanding lines of all times. Shame he didn’t think about the obstacles he might face as he tried to execute his grand plan.

But hey he got Tidd and a few punters to beat the drum, and get a bunch of punters hot to trot in his wake. I wonder what he truly thinks nowadays re CBM and Botswana …..

The CEO revealed that the Morupule A power plant had become unreliable and costly after more than 25 years’ operation.

“The power plant currently is under care and maintenance pending procurement of funds to undertake a comprehensive refurbishment and pollution abatement. The refurbishment project is expected to yield 116MW (net) by end of year 2015. In the interim the Corporation will endeavour to secure an average of 60MW by winter of 2014 to augment available sources of supply,” he added.

Currently Unit, following a performance test pass in August 2012, is currently running and producing power into the grid whilst the contractor is reported to be working on satisfying conditions for taking over.

Unit 2 tests were completed in September and the contractor was working on satisfying the conditions for takeover, whilst Unit 3 is yet to undergo performance tests.

Unit 4 is still under construction and commissioning activities are on-going. However working at height is still under suspension; it awaits satisfaction of safe working conditions. During the year under review, “we have had three fatalities from working from height. We had to suspend that whilst we work on putting in place a scaffolding contract to ensure that the environment is safe for work,” he explained.

As part of the long term strategy he said, “The government is expected to call for expression of interest in the next three months for Morupule B Units 5 and 6 of 300mega watts. The plan is to secure 300MW new capacity by 2017 in addition to Morupule B project (600MW). These two sources of supply plus the refurbished Morupule A will provide adequate power supply through to 2020, after which period a peaking plant will be required,” said Raleru.
Amongst other developments - renewable energy and low carbon portfolio - the government is advancing the development of renewable energy resources in Botswana through a bankable feasibility study of a 100MW Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) plant scheduled for completion in December 2012.

Also a renewable energy feed-in tariffs (REFIT) study to enable the development of small scale renewable energy sources was completed in 2011 and awaits implementation. It is envisaged that a total of 75MW renewable energy sources would be secured through the REFIT.

On the low-carbon portfolio, it is envisaged that the 90MW Orapa Turbine Power Plant will be converted to gas operation, subject to securing coal bed methane (CBM) in sufficient quality and quantity required for power generation

Came across this article from back then - and 10 years on ………

Severe power shortages possible in 2014 –BPC CEO
Written by ...........
WEDNESDAY, 12 DECEMBER 2012 09:18
BPC is under pressure to produce electricity while constructing the Morupule B plant and upgrading Morupule A, he says

The Botswana Power Corporation (BPC), which generates electricity for the country, is under pressure to produce electricity while at the same time constructing the Morupule B plant and upgrading the Morupule A plant.

In a press briefing yesterday, BPC Chief Executive Officer, Jacob Raleru, said they are currently working on the transmission grid expansion to meet the demands of the economy by planning several sources at the same time, and looking to import power from the region.

For the period 2013-2020,BPC’s planned power supply will be Morupule B (528MegaWatts from May 2013 onwards); refurbishment of Morupule A (from 2015, new 300MW capacity 2016/17) ; Orapa 90MW turbine power plant; rented 70MW from Matshelagabadi, (2013) ; and power imports from the region (100MW), 2013 – 2015.
However, Raleru warned that, “in the event that supply is not secured from Morupule A and no power imports are secured as planned, the worst case scenario is that a power supply deficit of up to 60MW would be experienced in 2014, which deficit increases to 90MW in 2015. Such a situation will have to be managed through load-shedding.”

So who do you think the Board are most influenced by who post on this board Brad ?

This article sums up Botswana perfectly.

https://www.mmegi.bw/business/caab-in-talks-with-four-major-airlines/news

A land of significant opportunity but how to take advantage of that and make money is the challenge. The Civil Aviation Board is broke - as are most of the Govt parastatals (eg BPC) so saying they are fine because they are backed by the Govt is naive at best. The Govt may not be broke but it is also nowhere near being flush with cash, thanks in large part to previous President and his cronies executing a level of state capture over the institutions. Unravelling this will take a lot of time; growing the economy from a weak base will take a lot of time; getting the institutions right-sized and semi-efficient will take an awful lot of time.

Maybe an appreciation of all these in-play factors in Botswana would help a collective understanding of the challenges of doing business there. Despite the President standing in front of Mining Indaba and selling the country as a welcoming investment destination - yes it is at face value, but if companies like Tlou, once there, cannot make progress because institutions don’t know how to, or are too afraid to let foreign companies own and operate eg power generation facilities, then private investment from outside the country will simply go elsewhere.

The Govt needs to back up words with actions, and quick. Don’t talk the talk if you are not prepared to walk the talk thereafter !!

Actually, I think the main purpose of this RNS is to tick a box that the company issued news on progress during Q2 - end of May, with 2 months until the quarterly update. Where they will reference back to this Update during the quarter.

As for Tony saying ‘the team’ will be very busy - hmmm, I thought Tlou appointed a 3rd party to do this work for them. So I don’t see Tony or Solomon or Colm or GG or even Danny being too involved with this construction. Maybe Danny being out in the field will check progress from time to time, but surely this is not his full time job.

Usual bit of attempted hood wink of the more gullible and adoring shareholders I reckon. Don’t worry, I am here to keep it all real and honest :)