Member Info for MrH_m

They got it wrong on 3 boards 😂

I think (hope so) yes. Focus on getting this right, and we can all stop licking our wounds and move on

Do you see MAKO kick starting their ambitions to go for other projects, or will they take the money and run?

I'll be honest - I thought they would go bust before last week's announcement, which is why I dumped my other shares (bar MIRI) to go balls deep in here. I'm also not ruling out news of another drill project (maybe that's a push though)

I agree - I realise though. I was one of many who stayed loyal pre and post last duster, only to lose patience and move on to recoup my losses

I don't - but I do for research re fundamentals etc

As usual DYOR / make up your own mind etc,, but this has now become a 12 month+ hold for me

This is what ChatGPT thinks of it all (for what its worth):

Here’s a pro forma NAV (Net Asset Value) model for MAKO’s impact on Empyrean (8.5% stake), with gas production starting in 2026—a simplified yet realistic projection:

📊 NAV Model for Empyrean’s MAKO Stake

🔢 Assumptions

2C Contingent Resource: 376 Bcf total; EME share = 32 Bcf (8.5%).

Plateau production: 120 MMcf/d gross → 10.2 MMcf/d net to EME.

Annual production: ~3.7 Bcf/year over ~10 years (2026–2035).

Gas price: 100% ICP-linked; assume Brent ≈ US$70/bbl → ICP ≈ US$70.

Gas price equivalence: 6 Mcf ≈ 1 boe → US$70/boe ≈ US$11.67/Mcf.

Revenue (pre-tax): 3.7 Bcf × US$11.67 ≈ US$43M/year (EME share).

EME’s tax/royalty: assume 30% effective → net US$30M/year.

CAPEX/OPEX: zero for pipeline; assume EME pays JV OPEX (exploration/upkeep) of US$5M/year net.

Discount rate: 10% (reflects frontier risk + currency).

💵 NAV Calculation (Simplified PV)

Net cash flow ≈ US$25M/year for 10 years.

PV at 10%: US$155M.

Divided by EME’s 2.515B shares → ~US$0.062/share ≈ 5.0 pence.

🔍 Sensitivity Table

Brent / ICP Price Net CF/year (US$M) PV NAV (p/share)

US$50 3.7×(50/70)×0.70 ≈ 18.3 ~3.7 p

US$70 (base) ~25 ~5.0 p

US$90 ~32 ~6.5 p

Derived from PV formula using 10% discount for 10 years.

🚀 Upside Scenarios

Higher ICP price: Brent at US$90 → NAV ~6.5 p.

Farm‑out (sale of part JV interest): Potential cash inflow plus de‑risking, adds value.

Additional resources: 2C to 2P conversion could extend plateau, boosting NAV.

⚠️ Downside Risks

Delays in start-up (pipeline/regulatory): cuts years off CF.

Lower Brent/ICP: Brent at US$50 reduces NAV to ~3.7 p.

Cost overruns or JV issues: higher OPEX or lost revenues.

✅ Summary

Base NAV support: ~5 p per share from MAKO alone—well above the current ~0.12 p price.

Pessimistic scenario (Brent US$50): still ~3.7 p.

Bull case (Brent US$90 + farm-out): ~6.5 p or more, plus optional upside.

EME still trades below this implied value, offering substantial upside if execution goes smoothly.

🧭 Next Value Catalysts

FID approval: once conditions precedent are cleared.

Pipeline contract finalisation: clarity on US$50 M build timeline.

Farm-out news: sale or JV deal could re-rate the stock.

First gas (~2026): production kick-off and initial cash flow.

I was in EME before and after the last duster and these same issues were discussed then, so nothing new

EME have stated already that they have formally rejected all claims, submitted a request for clarification of the demand basis, and emphasised its intention to maintain dialogue and resolve the matter amicably under the contract’s dispute resolution clauses. Most likely scenario is EMe will lose the expired licence to drill that project and it will get redistributed elsewhere, in consideration for the claims against EME being dropped

That’s what I thought too Eddy - Conrad will be farming down to ‘quality partners’ to secure the ‘necessary funding’ to ‘re-risk’ and ‘effectively manage’ all of the projects they have, including Mako. Whether our minority stake will also be purchased is another matter, but the expectation I share with others here is that that is exactly the plan in play

100%. What a time to be alive :-)

Yep. How often does a share price hold after such a monumental rise? Practically never. Bodes well for next week

Thanks for the reminder Andy P (WISH THAT COULD BE PINNED) - I think the weekend has come at the right time for some. They need to go away and do their own research and sums and fully appreciate what they are sat on here. Have a great weekend all :-)

100% Kaeren

0.108 on the bid now (lloyds)

DL reported

Lets ignore the previous false thread please

If we can avoid a red finish that would represent a good day IMO

Christ man - you deserve 5p+ more than all of us