Member Info for MrH_m

Thanks @hope2gain. Always good to hear from sensible posters 👍

@hope2gain - where do you see the week finishing?

Right on cue 🤣🤣🤣🤣

(waiting for the response from my green box stalker)

A few of us have suggested 0.15 to 0.2 by the week's close. That is still very much on the cards IMO. GLA

OK great. Safe travels

Good luck Lucky - see you in a few weeks ;-)

I'm perfectly relaxed with the direction this share is heading.

My new challenge is...can we get everyone to Filter and ignore the village idiot. Would be great to see :-)

Probably best you hang fire and wait before buying in then Lucky

Just a bit Spod :-)

Have we not all agreed to filter the lying idiot?

They are right - definitely a 'bargain' at that price

...might need x9 now (not x8.4) - wife has just kerbed my alloys!!

i still rate your username @loggylogbot (but a ***** to type)

I know @86KB. Most LTHs here are excited for the 8.4x return :-)

Reminder for the new investors in here:

This was AndyPaps' post from earlier, which is useful:

A summary of my detailed 14:36 post from Saturday 25th July which factored in all valuation drivers: gas price, resource size, PSC terms, capex/opex, taxation, risk discounting for 2C resources, and appropriate financial discounting. Read that post if you want the reasoning behind my figures.

1. Gross Resource and Revenue Estimates

• Total recoverable 2C resource (gross): 376 Bcf

• Empyrean’s 8.5% share: 31.96 Bcf

• Assumed gas price: US$11.95/MMBtu (based on June 25 ICP average)

• Gross field revenue: US$4.49 billion

• Empyrean's pre-PSC revenue share: US$382 million

________________________________________

2. Production Sharing Contract (PSC) Adjustment

• Typical Indonesian PSC structure:

o Cost recovery cap: 70% of gross revenue

o Profit gas split: 65% to government, 35% to contractors

• Empyrean’s adjusted share post-PSC: 6.29% of gross = US$282 million

________________________________________

3. Cost and Tax Assumptions

• Opex: US$1.00/Mcf → US$31.96 million

• CapEx (net): US$2.00/Mcf → US$63.9 million (may be conservative due to pipeline support from PLN)

• Total project costs: US$95.9 million

• Net revenue post-costs: US$282m – US$95.9m = US$186.1 million

• Indonesian tax (22%): US$40.9 million

• Net after-tax cashflow: US$145.2 million

________________________________________

4. Risk Adjustment

• Contingent resource status (2C) with GSA signed, pre-FID

• Industry-standard risk factor for this stage: 85%

• Risk-adjusted value: US$123.4 million

________________________________________

5. Discounting to Present Value

• Production window: 2027–2036 (10 years; GSA to Jan 2037)

• Annual average cash flow: US$12.34 million

• Discount rate (pre-FID SE Asia standard): 11%

• Net Present Value (NPV): US$80.67 million

________________________________________

6. Valuation Per Share

• GBP conversion (rate: 1.343): £60.06 million

• Shares in issue (post-raise): 5,719,672,441

• Value per share: 1.05p

• Current share price (as of Friday): 0.125p

• Implied upside: 8.4x

In my view this is what a buyer will pay now based on a Jan 2027 production date.

Just had a cheeky top up myself :-)

IMO the sp will be between 0.15 and 0.2 by the end of this week.

Holding well after the high's of last week.

Nice NMH21!

I think you'll be low on the buy order priority list i'm afraid NMH21