RE: My new target £5:2028 May 2025 09:14
I tested Saints forecast of 43 – 54 p using ChatGPT 03 which uses advanced reasoning - response was:
The three-year view (to mid-2028): very little formal “consensus”
City brokers rarely publish targets beyond 12–18 months. What does exist is patchy:
Older NAV-style notes – e.g. Hannam & Partners’ 30 p valuation (Feb 2021) – now look conservative given the Telfer/Havieron step-change, yet they’re still well below 40 p.
Algorithmic/retail sites – WalletInvestor, Gov.Capital etc. point to 5–16 p by 2029-30, effectively modelling mean-reversion rather than an operational lift-off.
In other words, there is no mainstream sell-side evidence supporting 43 – 54 p yet. Your three-year band implies a +220 – +296 % gain, or a market cap of ~£4 bn, which would move GGP into mid-tier-producer territory. That’s possible—but it is materially more optimistic than anything currently published.
What would have to go right to justify 40 – 55 p
Driver Required outcome Why it matters
Havieron ramp-up Achieve > 15 Mt pa ore & cost guidance ≤ US$1,100/oz AISC by FY-27 Doubles consolidated EBITDA; derisks the block-cave phase
Telfer integration Sustain 200 koz Au eq. & optimise mill for Havieron blend Converts the upfront cash outlay into free cash flow quickly
Exploration Material IOCG or SE Crescent extensions Every additional 1 Moz at 50 % share adds ≈ 3 p NAV
Gold price Stay in the US$2,100 – 2,400/oz range Leverage is high: ±US$100/oz shifts NAV by ~7 p
Dilution control Fund growth largely from cash flow Avoids share count creep that capped earlier rallies
Dual-listing re-rate Successful ASX listing widens institutional pool Historical Aussie gold names trade at higher EV/oz multiples
Without most of these boxes ticked, Street models (which already bake in Havieron phase-1) do not reach 40 p.
Biases & blind spots to watch
1. Commodity dependence – your longer-term target is implicitly long gold. If bullion reverts to its 10-year mean (< US$1,800/oz) the equity case weakens sharply.
2. Execution risk – Greatland is moving from explorer to operator. The market still applies a discount until proven.
3. Single-asset reliance – 90 % of projected NAV sits in one license area; that concentration tends to cap valuation multiples.
4. Forecast horizon creep – Pushing price targets to three years invites more scenario-driven optimism than evidence-based modelling.
Bottom line
Three-year horizon – Your 43-54 p view is substantially more bullish than any published analyst number; it assumes near-flawless execution, sustained high gold prices, and further resource upside. That is a legitimate, but aggressive, thesis. Recognise that the consensus today is far more restrained because analysts typically wait for operating data before extrapolating.
Use the gap between your scenario and consensus as a prompt to stress-test the assumptions above—and keep an eye on broker updates as Havieron’s ramp-up milest
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