RE: Undervalued4 Oct 2022 14:06
Barclays are concerned about near term debt maturity.
If we get a good refinance we will re-rate IMHO. The level of debt is not a problem anymore but the uncertainty on the 2023 bonds is.
To some extent this risk evaporates as cash comes in and bond buy backs happen, but there is a scenario where POO crashes, recession hits, ENQ are unhedged, and therefore need to refinance from a weak position.
Either substantial hedging and / or refinance would see us safe. ENQ playing a slightly risky strategy at the moment presumably because financing climate is difficult and hedging is expensive. More options also open up when the debt is lower such as using a renegotiated RBL to repay the bonds.
Rewards should be good if POO and production stay high.
Capex cut next year would also help clear the debt, but I doubt they will do that, and indeed hope they don’t.