Member Info for MR1234

£1M more to spend on wasters doing nothing...

The RockRose loan was all spent "running the business" (AKA paying director salaries) instead of paying the due amounts to Shell 8(

Maybe his O&G experience isn't that good...

Selene worth $58m (£45m) to DELT. Shares in issue ~ 93m so each share valued at (a maximum) of 48p.

What was the share price not so long ago (and before a 20:1 consolidation)?

IIRC, it was 8p (or £1.60 after consolidation which is never reached because the destruction in value was already well underway).

Perhaps you can illuminate the rest of us about how many wells do need decommissioning?

The last Capital Markets day presentation stated "Economic well life is primary determinant, with many wells continuing to produce for another 50+ years".

Many isn't all wells, it might not cover the majority even. And there in lies the problem, what is DEC worth? It depends on the cost of plugging wells but there isn't clarity about how many will be plugged and when it will happen.

Yep, do we think DEC can cap off 1,900 wells per annum for about 30 years to meet the ARO obligations? What's Next LVL doing at present? About 200 per annum - bit of a disconnect...

I've taken a look back at the 2023 results and it looks like Wintershall Dea is the dog in this.

Harbour did $3.7b in revenue from 186,000 boepd whereas Wintershall managed EUR 4.2b from 323,000 boepd. Dividing one by the other you get $54 per barrel for Harbour and EUR 36 for Wintershall.

Harbour FCF was $1b whereas Wintershall did EUR -27m! Could we be in 2025 that old Harbour is still doing the heavy lifting on FCF and subsidising old Wintershall.

Despite everyone saying this was a great deal for Harbour and how they got the Wintershall assets based on a share price of £3.60, it looks to me like Wintershall shareholders got the better deal.

Forecast 2025 production costs are $2.3b, CAPEX is $2.6b and FCF expected to be $1b which gives a total of $6b.

If they extract 475 kboepd barrels against the $6b from above, then each barrel of oil equivalent is selling at $35 which appears low. However, the mix of liquids and gas plays into this. If production is 40% liquids, 45% European gas and 15% non-European gas and with "$80/bbl & EU/UK gas averages $13/mscf" you end up with somewhere around $33 which is in the ballpark.

Looks to me that the FCF is about right and there really isn't some hidden pot of cash!

I'm massively underwater on this. Stupidly went way over the amount I should allocate to a high risk stock and then made things worse by trying to catch a falling knife as the share price dropped.

The loss of Pensacola was a huge blow as I'd been hanging on for good news, and now Selene is looking like it'll go the same way due to the carry costs only covering the drilling of the test well.

I've sold out most of what I had today to draw a line under a disastrous gamble on my part. I don't expect Deltic to raise enough cash to take this to production, and there are no charities in the North Sea to bail them out.

If it gets to 71p the shares I have left will cover my losses. Very low chance of that happening sadly with even the broker consensus at 20-30p.

Not my logic. I only commented that the Oak Bloke said DEC could pay off the plugging costs if it went bust tomorrow. It can't (just) based on the top end estimate of $25,000 per well.

The Oak Bloke has a typo on the figure for net assets ($1,740,556 should be $1,740,556,000).

If the company has $1,740,556,000 of assets and approximately 70,000 wells then it would seem that if a well plug cost (on average) more than $24,865 then it won't have the funds to cover the decommissioning liabilities.