Member Info for Moran89

"Quadrise has entered a new phase, transitioning from a research-led organisation to a commercially focused, market-led business following the appointment of its Chief Executive Officer, Peter Borup..."

So let me just get this straight, in the 19 or so years before good old Pete rocked up we've been led by Kirk, Miles, Morrison and previous into paying for what appears to have been a science experiment, only finally deciding in 2025 to start looking at commercial opportunities? They've actually stated this now in writing as part of a regulatory market communication. The idiots have actually admitted it. How can we trust anything they have ever said? This just gets worse.

Clearly MSC not within touching distance and have mugged us off like Aramco & Maersk. Time Peter told us the truth and not what keeps punters off his back. I have lost all faith and won't be joining the raise unless spectacular information provided on the investor meet, and even then it'll probably be a load of jackanory.

Please, everybody relax.

None of us can fortell the future, so I think it prudent to hope for the best and be prepared for bumps in the road ala timings and information. What will be will be. If you've looked at the risk v reward here and were happy before, then I see no particular reason to worry now. That said, I understand a few jitters here and there... it's only natural in the circumstances while we wait. I also want good results today, but think we may yet be a few weeks away (see comment above about predictions!).

I wouldn't be overly surprised if this rolled all the way into August. This is just the start of the Sagebrush endeavour so it'll take a while as they get all the information they need.

As much as this would be infuriating and worrying, a drop to 1p would represent an extraordinary risk/reward gambler's punt. Using absolute cold, hard reality we must surely be further along this ever-wobbly line than when this was sitting at 7/8p, so (sentiment aside) it would be a great, albeit even riskier punt if it fell to that level.

On the flip side, from memory we are now just over five years and five months since the MSC JDA signings. By any metric, this has been an appalling length of time to sign up a trial, even with requiring a refiner in the bag. Think about it-over half a flipping decade to get an agreement, and we're still not there yet! I just wish I could be as handsomely paid for delivering virtually nothing tangible; it is galling in the extreme and patience is evaporating by the day.

I was ill that day and missed the worst of it. I think the rumour was about Sealion being too waxy to be viable for commercialisation. I couldn't believe it and sure enough the company issued a statement saying they knew of no reason for the drop.

My Mosman adventure was a disaster as I got in following the TRP duster of June 2014. Once in I kept doubling down until I thought covid would end Barr & Carroll forever. I took one hell of a haircut that day, but picked myself back up and clawed much of it back by going back into Rockhopper at about 7p. Fortunately, that marched back up, hence my punt back in here. Howard is a different person and when I saw the £5 million raise and prospects it immediately attracted my risk/reward antenna. This one really does stand a good chance to get me back a reasonable amount of what I lost, and the beauty is that this has literally only just begun. The flitting butterflies who drop in and lose their nerve will rue the day, as I expect 3x, and hopefully a bit more over the next few months..and we haven't even gone into Coyote Wash! This one does feel like a bit of an open goal, sure no guarantees, but if it was nailed on we would be way higher by now.

As a young man I originally bought into Rockhopper with an average of 14p, before its rise to £5.10. I didn't sell then (lesson learned) but still there today. Mosman utterly wiped me out, so back here to rectify that, and I think this has a fairly decent chance of helping me get near to that.

And extremely bullish too to put in these words:

"establishing the Company as one of the largest independently certified helium resource holders listed on the London Stock Exchange"

That takes some minerals, so they must be confident of the eventful flow rates here.

"question is what should the SP be at the moment?"

@maybe_tomorrow, as this is currently a purely sentiment-driven share, the price should just be what people think it should be really. A couple of weeks ago we were at £.00033 and yet here we are today, pre-results and now a good 30% lower based on nothing more than a mid-operation update from the company. So the price is simply linked to your/our appetite for the risk/reward here. It could go lower on disappointing news, but on good news it'll rocket.

Not sure about the hole. Howard did mention previously that by going into the 1993 well it has saved them c.$4 million, so on the basis of that I would think they'll throw the kitchen sink at it to get it as much contact made as possible. If it's a total write off I'm not sure I would fancy them spending $4 million to see if it eventually works. Now that would be a risky play for us, so I hope (pray) they can get enough out of this to justify booking some half decent reserves. And that is the bet we are all hoping comes in big time!

I think we all need to calm down a little and keep our eyes open to the facts as they (currently) are. It is a fact that they have moved on to a larger fracture stimulation in order to improve connectivity and communication in the reservoir. Whether that is eventually successful or not is still in the balance, but that doesn't mean it will be a failure and it certainly doesn't merit this drop by flighty private investors.

All this stuff takes time, things will go wrong and targets may have to be redefined/re-evaluated, but that's the nature of the beast. Yes, it may end up being a dud, but likewise it could still end up a roaring success, or even a somewhat muted success. Currently it's all to play for and until we're told otherwise all outcomes are still possible. So if the drop is unnerving I'd look elsewhere for the next fortnight. Worrying about SP moves in an irrational and volatile market won't help anyone's nerves, especially when these drops are not related to any actual facts.

Exactly that. Coyote Wash represents about 70-80% of the estimated recoverable 1.1bcf of helium. And that's a mid case estimate across the resource. Upside you're looking at potentially 65bcf of raw gas.

The point though is that everything is risky, but with the recent funds raise and possible upside potential this could be huge. And numbers don't even have to be stratospheric to get some handsome returns. So on a risk-reward basis this is utterly compelling, but not without a distinct chance of being a duffer. I fancy the odds though and Sagebrush, for me, is just the icing on the cake. Even if it's disappointing it will feed into the geological model to make the larger Coyote Wash and even better bet. You pays your money and you takes your chances...

Coyote is the big one. And the work to date will help dictate how they manage that as it connects with Sagebrush. I think a few more weeks and things will be clearer. Currently we're in the middle of possibles and maybes, which we know the market doesn't like.

But, if the test had finished they would be legally bound to inform the market of results; they simply cannot hold anything back. Instead we've been told this is an "ongoing extended production test" so it would indicate we're not quite there yet.

I do wonder if the company's announcement yesterday was meant to be helpful, as a placeholder to keep folks updated/informed. If that was the case it has spectacularly backfired. Maybe they just need to keep schtum until it's all over.... hopefully before the 1 July EGM consolidation meeting.

I may add the well drilled was effectively a 'free hit' (would have cost $4 million to drill had they not got this as part of the acreage) and the lower zones were a speculative endeavour, not previously included in Sproule calls. And yet, it's still not a failed venture.

And to remind ourselves, Sagebrush on its own accounts for about 20-30% of the overall resource, with Coyote Wash still sat there. In sporting parlance, we're 1-0 down after 15 mins in, but we've not even reached half-time and we still have our best players sat on the bench, ready to come on. The result is still in jeopardy, but there's plenty of time left.

Taking the raw emotion out of all of this I note the EGM for share consolidation won't take place until 1 July. That gives QHE exactly 4 weeks to get the fracture stimulation and testing underway, and possibly completed. So whilst today's announcement feels like a kick in the teeth, I think it's worth letting the dust settle and see where we are by end June. Things may (or may not!) appear slightly brighter by then.

Concerns about the consolidation are entirely valid though (the timing is chronic), although this is not a Barr/Carrol operation anymore so I live in hope we won't end up in another perpetual doom loop of raises. I accept this is merely my hope though..

"Speaking to the board today..."

Just so that I understand this correctly you have been in direct communication with the QHE Board of Directors today?

It's very much a binary bet now between 0p and 15p+. I don't think 10p can exist going forward, except on the way to a satisfyingly steep upward curve into the teens+. My beef, however, is not necessarily the time it has/is taking, but rather the massive salaries taken to date for basically managing what is an over-inflated chemical experiment. Yes, yes I understand the risks; this isn't and never was a given. But, Miles and co have never taken any actual material risk themselves here due to the fact they have paid themselves a c.£350000+ per year safety net. It's extraordinary that any start up pays that sort of money, and certainly not after 18+ years of failed attempts to get something over the line. So I think this has to end this year (or will end this year) without concrete contracts in the bag because everyone invested is washed out (or virtually washed out) and 18-years+ of goodwill and cash have been flushed down the karzy. So it can't go on and TBH it probably doesn't really deserve to limp on if Peter and the team can't get a tune out of any of our utterly procrastinating partners. It's utterly infuriating, but another cash raise without something in the bag will be utterly unacceptable.

Whilst everyone is chomping at the bit for news, it may be worth remembering that Sagebrush itself only represents about 20% of the overall Coyote Wash/Sagebrush 1bcf of recoverable helium. So, in short this sequence is just the Hors d'oeuvres before the main meal. So whilst important, it's only the starting gun and not the end game. For that reason I am relaxed that they take their time to fully model this. And if it does come in as indicated/expected we are most certainly off to the races with a bang.

Howard is a good guy and we're lucky he saw this and picked it up. I expect his good judgement to repay us back for the Mosman dross years..

Surely, asimpleinvestor you understand that there is no 'news' today to drive any volume? If a successful operation is reported next week indicating a large amount of helium with a decent %, then it should make sense that every man and his dog will want in up to the market value of the product? Ergo the subsequent re-rating.

Where I do agree with you is that the rise will be 'choppy' due to the large share base...but rise it will. And if this goes from £0.0003 to £0.001 I will be extremely happy. Fingers crossed.

Based on the measured but confidently assured IM yesterday I think pressure here is building, with a few projects reaching tipping point. It would be insane for the SP to go from zero to hero in quick order, so to avoid the volatility of a parabolic rise it has to slowly be worked upwards.

Obviously, if we're still stuck here in two months twiddling our fingers there will be the inevitable deflation, but for the moment I think this deserves to sit at the mid to high 3s, based on apparent good news pending.